This long shot can outrun odds in Alcibiades at Keeneland
Alys Beach enters the Grade 1, $600,000 Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland on Friday with mild speed figures and a non-threatening effort in her graded-stakes debut. At first glance, it is easy to see why she was listed at 20-1.
But Alys Beach deserves a closer look before being dismissed from her second Grade 1 try, especially given the expected long odds.
Before running fourth in the Spinaway Stakes (G1) at Saratoga last month, Alys Beach showed promise by breaking her maiden against a good field. But even the bad effort in the Spinaway appears forgivable upon closer inspection of the trip.
Trained by Tom Amoss, Alys Beach won at first asking in a July 30 maiden special weight at Saratoga. In that career debut, Alys Beach took up a stalking position about two lengths behind the leaders through the first two quarters. She made her move in the stretch run once they started to straighten out.
After the turn, Alys Beach began to move inside horses in the stretch and then met the challenge of the Todd Pletcher-trained Life Talk, who came rallying on the outside. The two of them met in the eye, but Alys Beach responded to her opponent and took a slight advantage to win.
About a month later, Life Talk broke her maiden at Saratoga by 6 1/2 lengths to back up the quality of Alys Beach’s maiden win. In addition, the fifth-place Ringy Dingy also won for the first time at Aqueduct on Sept. 17.
No matter what the speed figure says, Alys Beach beat decent fillies in her career debut, and she did it in a professional manner after repelling the late move from the Pletcher-trained filly. Using speed figures at this stage feels unreliable at times anyway because 2-year-olds can suddenly improve out of nowhere as developing racehorses.
Why did Alys Beach miss the trifecta in the Spinaway?
For some reason, Alys Beach completely lost contact with the field on the far turn and went from 5 1/2 lengths back in the first quarter to 13 lengths behind through the half-mile. It is unclear why this happened, but note the part where Alys Beach starts to run again and moves up in the stretch run.
At the top of the stretch, Alys Beach noticeably responds to the crop under Dylan Davis. From that point, Alys Beach rallies past the tired fillies to the outside, including Closing Act, Lady Moscato and Lemorian. Then Alys Beach goes past the fading Sugar Hi on the inside to secure the fourth position.
Alys Beach lost third to Wonder Ride by only 1 3/4 lengths after Wonder Ride had more than six lengths on Alys Beach through six furlongs. Also, Alys Beach was 5 3/4 lengths clear of the fifth-place Closing Act, which means she was drawing clear of those fillies she passed earlier.
Again, forget about the speed figure. Alys Beach forgot to run on the far side, and she lost all chance at that point to contend. But this daughter of Omaha Beach was showing interest by moving up in the stretch. Maybe Davis went too conservative with his strategy in the early part.
Now, Alys Beach stretches out to 1 1/16 miles while receiving a major rider switch to Flavien Prat. The longer distance means she can stay within range more easily since a route pace goes slower than a sprint pace. Prat’s expertise in big stakes races also will help this filly.
Another factor in Alys Beach’s favor is the pace scenario. TimeformUS Pace Projector calls for a fast pace. With speed fillies such as Emery, Brightwork and Wine On Tap stretching out in distance, the projection is looking accurate on paper. As long as Alys Beach stays within range of the front without falling 13 lengths behind again, she can contend.
Given the points made about her two previous starts and the expected pace scenario, Alys Beach most likely can improve upon the non-threatening effort last time. Only at double-digit odds, Alys Beach is worth considering somewhere on tickets, whether on top or underneath.
