ALDS Game 3: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions
The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins play Game 3 of an AL Division Series Tuesday. First pitch from Target Field is set for 4:07 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
ALDS Series: tied 1-1
The Astros lost 6-2 as -128 home favorites as the Over (7.5) hit in the 2nd game of the series Sunday. LF Yordan Álvarez hit a 2-run shot in the 8th inning — his 3rd HR of the series.
Twins SS Carlos Correa finished with 3 hits and 3 RBIs vs. his former team. Minnesota 3B Kyle Farmer hit a 2-run HR in the 2nd inning, and the Twins won their 1st playoff road game since the 2004 ALDS.
Astros at Twins projected starters
RHP Cristian Javier vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Javier made 31 starts in the regular season, going 10-5 with a 4.56 ERA. He had a 1.27 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 162 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 8-1 victory at Arizona Diamondbacks on Oct. 1
- 2023 road stats: 5-3, 5.17 ERA (94 IP, 54 ER) in 18 starts
- Postseason career vs. Twins: Win, 3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 2 K in relief during 3-1 road victory Sept. 30, 2020
Gray was 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA across 32 regular season starts. He had a 1.15 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 184 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 2-0 home victory vs. Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday
- 2023 home stats (regular season): 4-5, 2.67 ERA (97 2/3 IP, 29 ER) in 17 starts
- Postseason career vs. Astros: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 1 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 6-4 home victory with New York Yankees on Oct. 17, 2017
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Astros at Twins odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
Astros at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Astros 3
The TWINS (-135) have the clear advantage at starting pitcher with Gray facing Javier and should be feeling confident after bouncing back in Game 2. Correa looks like he is still capable of starring in October and is extra motivated to beat his former team.
Javier has struggled on the road this season and has given up 3 or more ER in 4 of his last 5 away starts.
BET TWINS (-135).
The Astros are 26-8 (76.5%) on the run line this season as road underdogs, according to TeamRankings.com. Houston +1.5 (-185) will probably hit, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the run line when Minnesota ML is the better play.
PASS. Bet the moneyline and/or the total instead.
The Under has hit in Minnesota’s last 3 home games. Gray was dominant last time out and has allowed 1 or fewer ER in 7 of his last 8 starts. While Javier has been a liability on the road this season, Gray should be able to keep this game low-scoring and help the Under hit.
