ALDS Game 2: Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions
The Minnesota Twinsand Houston Astros play Game 2 of their best-of-5 AL Division series at Minute Maid Park Sunday. First pitch is at 8:03 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
ALDS: Astros lead 1-0 | Regular-season series: Twins won 4-2
The Astros took Game 1 by a 6-4 count as they won their 10th straight Game 1 of a division series. RHP Justin Verlander won his 10th postseason game with the club to break the franchise record. He pitched 6 shutout innings and struck out 6.
The Twins gave it a run when JV exited after the 6th inning. 3B Jorge Polanco hit a 2-out, 3-run shot and DH Royce Lewis followed with a solo HR as Minnesota cut it 5-4, but the Twins offense ran out of gas. It was their 1st loss this postseason.
They call on their horse, RHP Pablo Lopez, in Game 2 to try to even the series.
Twins at Astros projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Lopez went 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA in 32 starts this season. He had a 1.16 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 194 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 3-1 Wild Card Game 1 victory against Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
- One career start vs. Astros: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in Miami Marlins 7-4 road victory June 10, 2022
Valdez went 12-11 with a 3.45 ERA in 31 starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 198 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 7 K in 8-3 road win at Seattle Mariners Sept. 27
- Career vs. Twins (regular season): 3-1, 2.37 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 in 4 starts
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Twins at Astros odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:18 p.m. ET.
Twins at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Twins 2
The Astros are the masterclass in just about every category in this matchup. The Twins’ only chance is for Lopez to come and shove for 7 or 8 innings because they simply don’t have the bats to keep up. I look for Minnesota to take 1 in this series, but it won’t be here.
TAKE ASTROS (-135) to put the Twins on the brink.
The Astros covered the RL in Game 1 and have now won 5 games in a row. Nine of the last 10 meetings with these teams have resulted in multiple-run finishes. The carrot is there for me to chase at +150 with a $10 bet profiting $15.
TAKE ASTROS -1.5 (+150) — divvy up 1½ units between this play and the Astros ML wager.
The Over cashed in Game 1 as Houston’s bullpen made it interesting. The Over is 5-4-1 in the last 10 meetings between the clubs. With this pitching matchup, though, I see a low-scoring affair. The O/U line was 8 but has since dropped ½ run. Eight is definitely a pretty hefty number with the caliber of arms going.
TAKE UNDER 7.5 (+100) at even-money.
