American League Cy Young Betting Tips, Picks, Analysis
The American League Cy Young odds have gotten extremely close, including multiple sportsbooks having different players as the top dog. At , it’s Framber Valdez, while has Gerrit Cole.
This is perhaps the tightest single-player award right now in the MLB , and below, we’ll try to diagnose it and find the betting line value.
Let’s check it out.
Favorites for the 2023 AL Cy Young Award
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Since our last check-in, Cole has had two starts. He allowed four runs across 13.1 innings in those starts, striking out 16 batters. His most recent start accounted for 11 and one earned run.
He also participated in the All-Star game, throwing a single inning. He didn’t allow a run or strike anyone out, though.
Thanks to those starts, with four total earned runs, he picked up a win and steadied his ERA. His two losses make his resume look more attractive, especially considering Valdez’s rise in ERA.
Cole is heading in the right direction, so pounce on this before it dips below +200.
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
Like Cole, Valdez has also had two starts since we last looked. His start on July 8 was fine. He allowed two earned runs and struck out six, but his last start against the Los Angeles Angels on July 15 saw him give up five earned runs, though he did get 13 strikeouts.
Those runs ballooned his ERA from up to the now 2.76, which is close to Cole, and he has four more losses, fewer strikeouts, and fewer innings pitched.
Valdez has been more consistent, but it has been a bit dicey for him lately, allowing 14 earned runs over his last five starts.
In a close AL Cy Young race, Valdez needs to reign it in a bit before Cole pulls away with a good offense backing him.
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Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
- 7/5/23 Pitching Stats: 7-4, 3.04 ERA, 109.2 IP, 146 Ks, 27 Walks
- 7/19/23 Pitching Stats: 7-5, 3.03 ERA, 115.2 IP, 153 Ks, 29 Walks
- 7/5/23 Odds: Caesars Sportsbook (+425)
Gausman has been my dark horse in this race, but he’s been injured, making his last start on July 8 against the Detroit Tigers. According to Shi Davidi, Gausman will throw some tomorrow, but the timeline is still unknown.
In his last start, he held the Tigers to just two runs but got no run support. He got the loss but did strike out seven.
Hopefully, Gausman can return sooner rather than later to maintain his Cy Young campaign. The ERA gap between him, Valdez, and Cole is shrinking, and his dominating strikeout numbers would be an excellent tiebreaker should they get close.
