Andrade vs Dern Prediction: Andrade Can’t Afford to Lose

NY Fights

10 November 2023

Andrade vs Dern Prediction: Andrade Can’t Afford to Lose

Two women meet in a must-win fight for both in the strawweight division at UFC 295 at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night, in New York. But who will be looking up towards the top of the rankings come the final bell? Here’s our Andrade vs Dern prediction.

UFC 295: Andrade vs Dern Prediction

Brazilian Jessica Andrade heads into the Garden to complete a five-fight 2023, which has seen her lose her most recent three visits to the Octagon. Dern needs to put an end to her inconsistency if she’s to get a title shot at the 115 lbs gold. You’ve got to take desperation into account for an Andrade vs Dern prediction.

Jessica Andrade preview

At 32-years-old it’s been the busiest year of Andrade’s career as she heads into her fifth fight of 2023 and it’s probably fair to say it’s been somewhat of an annus horribilis for her.

The Brazilian got divorced this year and has revealed that the need to pay for lawyers has driven her desire to fight so many times and, unfortunately, she’s now on a three-fight losing streak, the longest of her 36-fight career.

Bate Estaca feels as far away from her title win against Rose Namajunas back in 2019 as she could be, not helped by recent movement between strawweight and flyweight.

Of course, she still has the tools in her locker to win on Saturday night, she’ll just have to dig deep to find them.

Andrade can beat people with her striking and can slam them into defeat, she’s also got submission victories under her belt too so nothing can be ruled out.

At +450 she is far likelier to stop her opponent from a standing position than be stopped in the same scenario, although she actually gives up a reach and height advantage in this one.

Her 70% takedown defence could come in handy against Dern, although she has been submitted in two of her previous three losses in this run.

But there’s more to consider for our Andrade vs Dern prediction.

Mackenzie Dern preview

Seventh-ranked Dern will be looking for a big win on Saturday and the chance to springboard herself ahead of her opponent in the rankings and a potential future chance at champion Zhang Weili.

The Arizona native won last time out with a unanimous decision victory over Angela Hill back in May, taking her UFC record to 8-3.

Her inconsistency has cost her climbing further up the rankings already, with two wins and two losses in her previous four contests.

It would be difficult to make an Andrade vs Dern prediction that saw the American end the fight with a TKO, considering she’s never won an MMA fight in that style.

Her submission game is definitely her strength and that’s why it’s the favorite way for anyone to end the fight at +120.

Due to Andrade’s brilliant takedown defence numbers, it may be that Dern’s right hand is needed to send her opponent to the floor before she can work her submissions.

With just 40% of her strikes landing, at 3.36 significant strikes per minute, it might seem like that’s not a weapon in her arsenal, but Dern still does pack a bit of a punch, even if it isn’t knockout power.

Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern Prediction: Dern on the way up

Both women have a path to victory laid out for them but it’s about who is more likely to take it that provides our Andrade vs Dern prediction.

The Brazilian certainly has the experience over her opponent but much of that experience has been negative of late, and she needs to win to turn things around.

However, Dern’s need to win is just as high, with any chance of a title shot massively dented by another run of inconsistency.

Dern is the favorite to win the fight at -198 but it’s by no means a one-horse race, with Andrade coming in at +164.

It’s no surprise that the chances of this one going the distance seem pretty high too, with all three rounds being completed coming in at +165.

Should it go the distance then it actually becomes even with both Andrade and Dern at +400 to take a decision victory.

We think that might be a bit kind on Bate Estaca whose recent losses have suggested that she can be dominated on the floor relatively easily and Dern’s ability to turn that kind of advantage into a submission can’t be ignored.

That’s not to say the former champion can’t win of course and she’s a healthy +450 to win by TKO/KO and +180 if you put it with a double chance of winning by TKO/KO or decision.

But ultimately we’re backing the fifth fight of her year to just be a step too far for Andrade with Dern taking the win.