UFC 295: Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern Betting Prediction

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08 November 2023

UFC 295: Jessica Andrade vs. Mackenzie Dern Betting Prediction

The next UFC fight to take a closer look at is this women’s strawweight bout between former champion Jessica Andrade and rising contender Mackenzie Dern. These two are some of the most exciting athletes in women’s MMA and will surely set the table well for the co-main and main events at UFC 295.

Read more for the official Andrade vs Dern prediction, following a preview of the betting lines and an analysis of the styles these two bring into the octagon. Making UFC bets can be a little easier with the help from us.

Andrade vs. Dern Information

Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern

Location of the game: Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY.

Date and Time: Saturday, November 11. 9:00 PM ET main card start.

How to Watch: ESPN+ PPV

Last Fight Record

Andrade is looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Tatiana Suarez via submission in the second round in August.
Dern is coming off her most impressive victory to date, a decision victory over Angela Hill in a main event last May.

Andrade vs. Dern Betting Analysis

Jessica Andrade

Andrade is a Brazilian professional MMA fighter with a record of 24-12 with 9 TKO/KO wins and 8 submissions. Before being in the middle of a 3-fight losing streak right now, Andrade was the former UFC strawweight champion, 9-time post-fight bonus winner (most in women’s UFC history), and is second behind the GOAT Amanda Nunes for most wins in women’s UFC history.

Over her career, Andrade has averages of 6.68 significant strikes landed per minute, 2.54 takedowns per 15 minutes, and a solid 70% takedown defense standing at 5’1” with a 62” reach–fighting at both strawweight and flyweight consistently.

Mackenzie Dern

Dern is a Brazilian-American mixed martial artist with a professional record of 13-3 with 7 submissions under her belt at the age of 30. Before starting her MMA career, Dern was the #1 ranked IBJJF competitor and she’s an ADCC world champion. That’s an elite level of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu that we have never seen in the UFC.

Dern is listed at 5’4” with a 63” reach while fighting out of the orthodox stance. So far in the UFC, she averages 3.36 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.09 significant strikes as well. She only averages 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage at a 15% clip, meaning she hasn’t been able to necessarily implement her grappling skills at this level.

Andrade vs. Dern Betting Preview

As we start to formulate the Andrade vs Dern prediction, it’s important to preview the betting lines for this bout. The odds we can get will directly correlate to how we bet money on this fight.

The UFC fight night odds have Dern as the -190 betting favorite over the +165 former champion. Also, this fight is favored to end inside the 15-minute limit with odds at -200–a rare thing for women at 115lbs to do.

Since the money lines are valuable on both sides, we can focus more on studying the films of both women. The styles of this fight and the little nuances surrounding the matchup might be the deciding factors.

Elite Athlete Challenge

Andrade is about to make the walk to a UFC octagon for the 5th time in 2023. You should be very excited about how good of a condition she will be in walking in the cage on Saturday. Even for the most elite athletes in the world, 5 MMA fights in 11 months is very tough to do. Assuming she has a similar training process to most fighters, that means she’s been through 5 grueling training camps, or maybe she isn’t training hard enough?

Outside of that question mark, the styles of both women are probably going to mix well on Saturday night. Andrade fights with a lot of pressure and likes to throw big overhands and set up power takedowns. She’s violent and still packs a lot of power in her punches even though she has such a small frame.

Dern has shown a lot of improvement in her striking game and will always be very dangerous on the ground. She looks physically stronger and is clearly working hard on her strength and conditioning, so let’s see how this weight cut goes for her. She is at her best when she is pushing the pace as well.

Andrade vs. Dern Betting Prediction

This is just another example of how tough UFC picks are to make every weekend. We have no idea how healthy either of these women are going into this weekend, and they both have obstacles to overcome in their personal lives that might impact how they perform.

With that being said, the official Andrade vs Dern prediction is that Dern gets her hand raised. At first, Andrade seemed like a great underdog pick, but Dern just might be reaching her prime as a mixed martial artist and has tons of confidence getting through her main event fight earlier this year.