Arizona Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

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28 December 2023

Arizona Bowl Betting Odds, Spreads & Picks 2023

Wyoming's looking to send its coach out on a winning note. Find out if our college football picks for the Arizona Bowl think they can get it done against a Toledo squad that just got crushed by the transfer portal.

It’s a farewell party in Tucson with Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl coaching his last game before retirement against the Toledo Rockets for the Arizona Bowl in what should be the perfect kind of Cowboys game.

The college football odds give Bohl’s program the edge as 3.5-point favorites in his last hoorah, and it makes sense given the matchup. Both of these teams want to slug it out on defense, and with the Rockets offense being depleted due to the transfer portal, it should result in a low-scoring game.

Let’s break down these bowl game odds and see where my best bets lie in our free college football picks and predictions for Toledo vs. Wyoming on Saturday, December 30.

Toledo vs Wyoming best odds

Toledo vs Wyoming picks and predictions

Coming off its best season since 2017 and with the potential to win 12 games for the first time since 1971, Toledo looked poised to run through this Wyoming program. But then the portal struck head coach Jason Candle’s MAC Championship-winning roster and it turned this game upside down… making the Under 44.5 total look even better.

Not only did the Rockets lose three-year starting quarterback DeQuan Finn to Baylor, but earlier this week MAC Offensive Player of the Year Peny Boone hit the portal with plans to return to the Power Five after beginning his career at Maryland.

This season, Finn threw for 2,657 yards and ran for another 563 while scoring 29 total touchdowns, and Boone finished with 1,619 yards from scrimmage and 16 touchdowns. These two were the catalysts for the best offense in the MAC.

Behind Finn’s arm and Boone’s legs, Toledo scored 33.6 points per game and ranked 17th in EPA per play, 19th in EPA per pass, and 27th in EPA per rush. But without those two, this offense could look completely different against a hard-nosed Wyoming defense.

The Rockets are expected to start backup quarterback Tucker Gleason in Finn’s place. Gleason is in his third year with the program after transferring from Georgia Tech and has thrown 152 passes in his career. While his touchdown to interception ratio stands out — 12 TDs to three INTs — he’s completed just 50.7% of his passes.

This season, he only got in for mop-up duty in two games, but started a few in 2022 when Finn was banged up. In the three games he threw over six passes — all against MAC teams — the Rockets averaged 25.3 points per game and went 1-2. While his numbers were solid, two of the three defenses he faced allowed at least 28.5 points per game and more than 375 total yards per game.

This Wyoming defense is giving up just 22.9 points per game, 48th-best in the country, and 360.3 total yards per game, 18th-fewest in the Group of Five. More importantly, defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel’s unit has been efficient at stopping the run. It ranks 49th in EPA per play, but 32nd in EPA per rush.

It should be able to slow Boone’s backup Jacquez Stuart, 614 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns this season, enough to force Gleason to beat the Cowboys with his arm. The Wyoming defense has lost just one starter for the game, cornerback Kolbey Taylor entered the portal, but Sawvel’s defense had been without him for the final two regular season games.

This is a defense that’s known for being gritty and overachieving, however, it does have some real NFL talent on it. Linebacker Easton Gibbs and defensive linemen Cole Godbout, Jordan Bertagnole, Devonne Harris, Sabastian Harsh, and Braden Siders are all on the NFL radar. Gibbs is a run stuffer who leads the team in tackles with 106, while the five defensive linemen have combined for 26.5 TFLs and 15 sacks.

With the nastiness this front seven plays with, it should be able to give Gleason and Stuart issues throughout the game. This is a defense that held non-Power Five opponents to 19.1 points per game and also benefits from a ball-control offense that looks to bleed the clock.

The Cowboys offense isn’t anything to get excited about, ranking 69th in EPA per play, 77th in EPA per pass, and 61st in EPA per rush. It’s led by mobile quarterback Andrew Peasley and running back Harrison Waylee, a Northern Illinois transfer.

Those two combined to run for 1,259 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns this season while helping the offense score 26.1 points per game. It’s an offense that will assist the Under and will be given all it can handle by a Rockets defense that held teams to just 20.6 points per game, 25th in the country.

Toledo defensive coordinator Vince Kehres has gotten the most out of a unit littered with All-MAC performers. It’s 29th in EPA per play and 13th in EPA per pass, with the vast majority of its starters likely to be playing in the game. Only the status of star cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is in question. Mitchell is a potential first-round pick and unlikely to play.

Even without Mitchell, Toledo is loaded with linebacker Dallas Gant, defensive lineman Judge Culpepper, and safety Maxen Hook leading the way. Those three should be able to contain the Wyoming running game enough to keep scoring low.

My best bet: Under 44.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Toledo vs Wyoming same-game parlay

Not only does Wyoming have its starting lineup intact, but the Cowboys really have something to play for with it being Bohl’s last game. A three-time FCS National Champion at North Dakota State, he’s led Wyoming since 2014 going 60-60 and 3-2 in bowls. One more win sends him out with a winning record.

But beyond that, Wyoming also has an advantage with experience at quarterback and a talented running back in Waylee. He’s rushed for over 2,700 yards in his career and is averaging 5.9 per carry this season.

With his elusiveness and change of direction skills, he has the ability to do enough for this offense against Toledo’s run defense that ranks 79th in EPA per rush.

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Toledo vs Wyoming spread and Over/Under analysis

Books that had the line early opened with Toledo as 1.5 to two-point favorites in the Arizona Bowl, but as the transfer portal struck, books shifted towards the Cowboys. Now, Wyoming is a 3.5 to 4-point favorite pretty much everywhere. The Rockets are 6-7 ATS this season and Wyoming is 7-4-1.

The total hasn’t shifted much with most books opening between 45.5 and 46.5 and all of them coming down to 44.5. Toledo is 7-6 betting the Over this season, but 2-5 in its last seven. Wyoming is 6-7 betting the Over, but 2-6 when the total is at least 44.