MLB Odds: Marlins-Diamondbacks prediction, pick, how to watch

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08 May 2023

MLB Odds: Marlins-Diamondbacks prediction, pick, how to watch

The Miami Marlins (17-18) visit the Arizona Diamondbacks (19-15) for the first of a three-game series! First pitch commences Monday at 9:40 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Diamondbacks prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Here are the Marlins-Diamondbacks MLB odds,

MLB Odds: Marlins-Diamondbacks Odds

Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-122)

Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+102)

Over: 8.5 (-106)

Under: 8.5 (-114)

How To Watch Marlins vs. Diamondbacks

TV: Bally Sports

Stream: MLB.tv

Time: 9:40 p.m. ET/ 6:40 p.m. PT

*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread

Last 10: 5-5 (Third in the NL East)

Run Line Record: 12-23 (34%)

Over Record: 15-19-1 (44%)

Miami looked to be turning things around after they swept the Cubs at the end of April. However, they followed that up with five consecutive losses to Atlanta and Chicago – subsequently dropping them back under .500. This series presents a nice opportunity for the Marlins to get back to .500, however, considering they took two of three from Arizona earlier this season. That being said, that series came at home and the Marlins have since struggled to score runs. Miami ranks last in runs per game and 25th in total bases per game. Consequently, the Marlins need their offense to show up tonight if they want any chance of covering against Arizona’s ace.

Lefty Braxton Garrett (1-1) makes his sixth start of the season for the Marlins tonight. The 25-year-old took a major step forward last year despite a 3-7 record. In 17 starts, Garrett held a solid 3.58 ERA to go along with a 9.2 K/9. Consequently, Garrett had high expectations coming into this season. He looked sharp through his first five starts, holding a 2.45 ERA and striking out 19. The wheels fell off in his most recent start, however, as the Braves crushed him for a staggering 11 runs in 4.1 innings. That inflated his ERA to 5.81 despite a solid opening month. As a result, Garrett has his work cut out for him tonight as he looks to bounce back from arguably the worst start from any MLB pitcher this season.

Miami’s biggest issues come on the offensive end – although that is no fault of infielder Luis Arraez. Although the 26-year-old doesn’t provide much power at the plate, he has been an 0n-base machine thus far. He leads the MLB with a .420 batting average and ranks fifth with a .994 OPS.

Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread

Last 10: 6-4 (Second in NL West)

Run Line Record: 19-15 (56%)

Over Record: 18-14-2 (56%)

Arizona continues to look like a serious contender in the early portion of the season. The Diamondbacks sit in second place in a jam-packed NL West thanks to winning three of their last five series. That being said, the Diamondbacks face an uphill battle tonight against a Marlins team they dropped two of three against early in the season. However, the one game they won during that series came in Zac Gallen’s start. Gallen dominated the Marlins as they came away with a 5-0 win. The Diamondbacks continue to rake at the plate, ranking seven in runs and fifth in total bases per game. Consequently, the D-backs just need Gallen to continue his strong start to the season if they want to cover against a weak Marlins lineup.

Righty Zac Gallen (4-1) makes his eighth start of the season for the Diamondbacks tonight. Gallen finds himself in the midst of a breakout season after his career year in 2022. Gallen managed a 12-4 record last year to go along with a 2.54 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Through seven starts in 2023, Gallen looks even sharper than last season. Thus far, he holds a 2.53 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Perhaps most encouraging has been his strikeout rate. Gallen has been a strong strikeout pitcher throughout his career with a 10.2 K/9. That number skyrocketed to 12 K/9 this season. Additionally, Gallen’s control looks much improved. After a career-high 4.1 K:BB rate last season, that number jumped to 11.4 this season. While that number won’t last forever, he walked just five hitters thus far and looks like a legit ace in his fifth major league season.

The Diamondbacks boast one of the most potent lineups in the MLB this season. In recent games, their offensive success can largely be attributed to first baseman Christian Walker. Walker holds a solid .282 average for the season to go along with eight homers and 26 RBI. He’s been red-hot over the last week, however, batting .435 with four homers and 23 total bases in his last five games. He’s hardly the only D-backs hitter playing well of late, as Dominic Fletcher, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, and Geraldo Perdomo all hold batting averages north of .350 over their last five games.