San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

The San Diego Padres (56-61) close out their 5-game road trip on Sunday with the last of a 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks (58-59). First pitch from Chase Field is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 5-3

The Padres won the opener on Friday 10-5, but were shut out Saturday 3-0 for their 5th loss in 6 games.

The Diamondbacks got 6 scoreless innings from RHP Zac Gallen and 3 innings of scoreless relief in Saturday’s win, snapping a 9-game losing streak. They are 6-20 since the Al-Star break.

Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt

Lugo (4-6, 4.19 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 92 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 3 1/3 IP. 8 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 13-7 home loss to Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday
• Padres have lost his last 3 starts and 4 of his last 5

Pfaadt (0-6, 7.16 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 49 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-4 home loss to Dodgers on Tuesday
• D-backs are 1-5 in his last 6 starts

Padres at Diamondbacks odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

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Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 4, Padres 3

Both teams have been struggling.

The Padres are 26-33 on the road and 1-3 on their current road trip. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and are 1-4 in Lugo’s last 5 starts.

The Diamondbacks have only 6 wins since the All-Star break and have lost 9 of their last 10 games. They are 1-5 in Pfaadt’s last 6 outings. They have lost their last 6 Sunday games.

But Pfaadt has been better. He has lowered his ERA from 9.82 to 7.16 over his last 4 starts.

BET DIAMONDBACKS (+115)

The Diamondbacks are 4-4 ATS in their last 8 games. They have covered the spread in Pfaadt’s last 3 outings. The Padres are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. They are 57-60 ATS overall and 0-4 ATS in Lugo’s last 4 outings.

Because we like the Diamondbacks to win outright, the plus odds on the moneyline give you a better value there, but if you aren’t as confident in Arizona winning outright, you can feel pretty good about a cover without bad odds. It wouldn’t hurt to sprinkle a little on DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-145).

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Only 1 of Lugo’s last 4 starts had more than 9 total runs.

Only 1 of Pfaadt’s 10 starts (his debut) has had a total of 10 or more.

Twelve of the Diamondbacks’ last 14 games have not reached 10 runs.

BET UNDER 9 (-110).

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