Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds
On Monday evening, the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies will play Game 1 of the National League Championship Series from Citizens Bank Park. Arizona is making their first appearance in baseball’s version of the Final Four since 2007. Philadelphia is playing in the NLCS for the second consecutive season.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Phillies as -170 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Zac Gallen due for regression
In two starts to begin these playoffs, Zac Gallen has posted a 3.18 ERA across 11.1 innings of work. Still, he has walked five batters and managed only eight strikeouts in that span while allowing more than a baserunner per inning.
During the regular season, Gallen had significant home-and-away splits, with his numbers on the road being significantly worse than his numbers at home. Playing away from Chase Field, Gallen had a 4.15 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 22.4% strikeout rate, and a 6.5% walk percentage. In two of his final three regular season road outings, Gallen allowed at least six earned runs.
Gallen will benefit from pitcher-friendly playing conditions in Game 1, but there is nothing about his postseason numbers to this point that suggests he has suddenly figured out his road woes. He has been more lucky than good to begin October.
Arizona offense facing tough test
Unquestionably, the Diamondbacks have the worst offense remaining in the playoffs. Following the All-Star break, Arizona ranked 23rd in OPS and 26th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Only the Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals, Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Guardians, and Colorado Rockies hit fewer home runs on the road during the regular season than the Diamondbacks.
Arizona’s primary means of generating runs is their extreme aggressiveness on the basepaths, but that is unlikely to be a recipe for success tonight against Zack Wheeler and J.T. Realmuto. Opposing baserunners have had minimal success against Wheeler in recent seasons, due to him being quick to the plate out of the stretch. Realmuto had the best pop time in baseball once again in 2023.
Runs are likely to be at a premium for Arizona in the NLCS.
Arizona bullpen lacking depth
If Arizona does not get length out of Gallen this evening, they could be in trouble in the latter frames. During the month of September, Arizona’s arm barn generated only a 22.3% strikeout rate. The inability to get swings and misses could be a tremendous problem against a Philadelphia lineup that has plenty of power from top-to-bottom.
This unit also lacks depth behind Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald. Manager Tony Lovullo was fortunate to only play three games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, which minimized how often he had to dip into his middle relief options. In a seven-game series, he is unlikely to have that luxury.
Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler gets the ball in Game 1 for Phillies
Zack Wheeler is beginning to earn himself a reputation as one of the league’s premier pitchers on the big stage. In 2022, Wheeler made six starts in the playoffs, finishing with a 2.78 ERA across 35.2 innings of work. In his first two starts this October, Wheeler has posted a 2.08 ERA across 13.0 innings.
Wheeler finished the regular season ranked in the 88th percentile in xERA, 88th percentile in average exit velocity, 87th percentile in barrel rate, and had one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios of any starting pitcher in the big leagues. He draws a favorable matchup in Game 1 as he looks to continue adding to his impressive October resume.
Happy Birthday, Bryce Harper!
Today, Bryce Harper turns 31 years young. It will be the first time in his career that he will play a game on his birthday. Though the birthday narrative has little factual evidence to support it, there is plenty of reason to believe that Harper, who owns a career 1.017 OPS in the postseason, could have a big day at the dish on Monday.
Harper is not the only player in this Philadelphia lineup looking to feast on Monday night, either. The Phillies were excellent against right-handed pitching during the second-half of the regular season, ranking 7th in OPS and 2nd in ISO. The forecast is calling for temperatures in the 50s, which could diminish the party vibes slightly, but this offense is still more than capable of doing damage in Game 1 – especially if they continue to be aggressive on the basepaths.
Philadelphia bullpen firing on all cylinders
Remove an Austin Riley eighth-inning home run in Game 2 of the Wild Card round, and Philadelphia’s arm barn has been nearly flawless so far in October. Jose Alvarado, Orion Kerkering, Craig Kimbrel, Seranthony Dominguez, and Matt Strahm have combined for 15.0 scoreless innings in relief during the team’s first six postseason contests. This is the deepest and the most talented relief corps remaining in these playoffs. There are few reasons to expect anything catastrophic from this unit during the NLCS.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies – Picks & Predictions
At first pitch this evening, the forecast has the temperature in the low 50s, with a modest wind blowing across the field from left to right. In short, these are extremely pitcher-friendly conditions. In addition to the pitcher-friendly weather, Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball, and he controls the running game as well as anyone. If Zac Gallen can limit the damage done against him in the early going, this could be an extremely low-scoring affair in the early frames, making the under an appealing option to consider for the first five innings.
PICK: Under 4.5 – First 5 Innings (-160, Fanatics Sportsbook)
