Diamondbacks vs. Phillies NLCS Game 1 SGP: Bet on Philadelphia and Bryce Harper
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies begin the NLCS on Monday night.
The pregame narrative: Philadelphia's top bats are getting the job done and so is it's Game 1 starter, making the Phillies our moneyline pick. With two solid starters on the mound, we're teasing up the total and taking the under. Lastly, Bryce Harper is a good bet to stay strong at the dish and deliver a hit.
MLB oddsas of 1:23 p.m. on 10/16/2023.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies SGP
Parlay: Phillies moneyline + Under 9.5 + Harper to record 1+ hit (+220)
Phillies moneyline (-175): Any team remaining in the playoffs is obviously a talented ball club, there's no denying that.
The margin of victory on a game-to-game basis is so thin, but there are two unquantifiable factors that have us picking Philadelphia.
The first is home-field advantage. Citizens Bank Park is a house of horrors for any opponent who enters. The Phillies are a perfect 4-0 in their own building during the playoffs thanks to fans who have opposing teams' players acting like this:
Experience is another factor that favours Philadelphia. With most of its core returning from a World Series loss to the Houston Astros, this group appears ready to make the next step.
The Phillies also lead the Diamondbacks in average (.274 to .262), SLG (.538 to .530) and ERA (1.53 to 2.20) in the postseason.
Other parlay picks
Under 9.5 runs (-305): Not only does Philadelphia have a better ERA than Arizona, but it actually ranks tops among all postseason teams.
The Phillies aren't just preventing runs, they're avoiding traffic on the base paths. They've held opposing teams to the lowest batting average (.188) of any squad in the playoffs. The pitching staff has only issued 12 walks which is tied for the fewest of all remaining teams.
Zach Wheeler gets the ball for Game 1 and he's been fantastic. He has a 2.08 ERA and a 1.72 FIP in his two appearances.
Arizona counters with Zac Gallen and he's been good in his first taste of postseason ball. The All-Star arm has a 3.18 ERA and 4.31 FIP in two outings.
The under on this total has cashed in nine of Arizona and Philadelphia's 11 combined postseason contests.
Harper to record 1+ hit (-210): When you look up big-time players in the dictionary, you'll see this guy's picture.
Harper is taking over October once again, slashing an otherworldly .368/.539/.842 across six games. He's cashed this wager five times.
He has four hits in 12 at-bats against Gallen including a double. It's also his birthday on Monday, so use that info as you may.
