Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng Predictions & Odds for 2024 Australian Open Final

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25 January 2024

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng Predictions & Odds for 2024 Australian Open Final

Saturday's Australian Open finals pit No. 2seed Aryna Sabalenka against No. 12 seed Qinwen Zheng in a mismatch on paper, and we offer our best Sabalenka vs. Zheng prediction for theAustralian Open Final.

Just three women have won back-to-backAustralian Opens this century (Jennifer Capriati, Serena Williams, and VictoriaAzarenka). Aryna Sabalenka looks to add her name to that list Saturday against underdog Qinwen Zheng after winningher maiden Grand Slam at the Australian Open last year.

Though Sabalenka was a chalky pick toreach the final with the second-shortest pre-tournament odds at our best sports betting apps, Zheng is somewhat of a surprise finalist in just her ninth overall Grand Slam appearance.

Zheng went 2-2 in her fourprevious Australian Open appearances before this year and joins Li Na as the secondChinese player to ever reach a Grand Slam final, according to tennis journalist Jose Morgado. Can she upset the heavily favored Sabalenka in Saturday's final?

Here are our best Sabalenka vs. Zhengpredictions for the 2024 Australian Open final (odds via our best sports betting sites;pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng odds

(Odds via bet365)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zhengprediction

Aryna Sabalenka Under 12.5 games won (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sabalenka has become the most fearedhard-court player on the women’s circuit, as this is her third straighthard-court Grand Slam final when factoring in last year’s runs at the AustralianOpen and US Open.

The favorite's 2024 Australian Open campaign has been downrightdominant, winning all 12 sets played, and being pushed past nine games ina set only once (a 7-6 first-set tiebreak against Coco Gauff in the semifinals).However, even that set could have been wrapped up earlier, as Sabalenka wasbroken when serving for the set at 5-4.

Sabalenka is 29-3 in her previous 32Grand Slam matches, including a 13-match winning streak at the Australian Open.Her experience of winning on this stage before against a 21-year-old who advanced past the fourth round just once before this season is a big reason why she is a heavy -500 moneyline favorite in this match.

To bet on Sabalenka to win in straight sets breaks the bank too much, as BetMGM offers -190 odds forSabalenka to win two sets to none. Additionally, DraftKings has Sabalenka as a-380 favorite to win each set, and the Under on 2.5 sets played isjuiced to -275.

Thus, we had to get creative at FanDuel with thiswager to optimize our returns. Since we fully expect Sabalenka to win instraight sets, the only way this wager does not cash is if she wins one of thesets in a tiebreak.

We're willing to take that risk since Gauff is the onlyplayer to push her to that limit this tournament, and Sabalenka cruisedto a 6-1, 6-4 victory against Zheng in the quarterfinals of last year’s USOpen. In that match, Sabalenka did not face a single break point and won 20receiving points compared to Zheng’s nine.

Australian Open final best odds

FanDuel (-118)

Under backers will find the best valuefor the number of games Sabalenka will win at FanDuel, as other competitorslike DraftKings are juiced much higher to -135 in comparison. There areopportunities to hedge on this wager with live betting, as well, especially ifit appears either set is headed toward a tiebreak.

DraftKings has props for the correct score of the first set, and Sabalenka towin 7-6 has +700 odds, while Zheng’s odds to win in a tiebreak are +1100. Thus,if both players are on serve midway through the first set, it may be wise tosprinkle a little on each of these props, as the odds will still likely be +200or greater for each player at that point.

Trends also indicate that Zheng’sprevious four WTA Finals have gone Over the projected games line and thatSabalenka has failed to cover the game spread in eight of her previous 10 WTAFinals, so those are other props bettors may want to look at that do not breakthe bank either.

Bettors can head to DraftKings for a 50% boost for one Australian Open live bet, so be sure to use our exclusive DraftKings promo code to take advantage of that offer!