Tennis betting tips: Australian Open day 12 best bets Thursday January 25
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open
1pt Coco Gauff to beat Aryna Sabalenka 2-1 at 49/10 (888sport)
1pt Dayana Yastremska to beat Qinwen Zheng at 7/4 (General)
Coco Gauff v Aryna Sabalenka (0830 GMT)
If you were to rely only on current tournament form, you’d be steaming into Sabalenka here – indeed, you might as well give her the trophy now.
The Belarusian has been outstanding so far, crushing everyone in her path. She is yet to lose more than five games in a match with former French Open champion Barbora Krejcikova going the same way as the others in Tuesday’s quarter-final.
Yet, we all know tennis doesn’t work that way. Each match provides different challenges and some opponents have better answers than others.
First of all, Gauff has played pretty well herself.
The US Open champion had not lost a set until her last-eight encounter when her level certainly dropped as she struggled past Marta Kostyuk in three sets.
“I didn’t play my best tennis,” was the teenager’s verdict. “Hopefully I got the bad match out of the way and I can play even better.”
She can certainly be forgiven one bad day at the office, especially when it still results in a win, and there is an argument to be made that she now comes into this showdown battle-hardened, whereas Sabalenka is yet to be tested.
That factor is kind of related to my concerns about the favourite here.
We’ve seen quite often in recent times that when the pressure is turned up, Sabalenka can be found wanting.
I really don’t think it’s crazy to say she could have won the Grand Slam last season had she been a little more head strong.
After winning here, Sabalenka lost from match-point up in the French Open semi-finals and then blew a one-set lead in the last four at Wimbledon.
She completed the Grand Slam year by reaching the US Open final, a match she looked in complete control of after winning the first set only to lose in three.
That match is of particular significance here given it was Gauff who was on the other side of the net.
She waited for the errors to come from the Sabalenka racquet and come they did, her more consistent game winning the day – as it has often done in this match-up.
Gauff leads 4-2 on the head-to-head; it’s 3-2 on hardcourts. Sabalenka will not have the same feeling as she did going into her quarter-final when she led Krejcikova 5-1.
We’ve seen in previous matches that Gauff’s speed and defensive skills are capable of defying the onslaught that Sabalenka brings with her heavy hitting from the back of the court.
Both players have strong serves – Sabalenka has held 92% of the time in Melbourne to Gauff’s 76% - but one suspects it will be the player who returns the better here who will emerge as champion.
In terms of breaks of serve, Sabalenka has the edge over the past two weeks – 63% to 61% - but you feel she’ll come under pressure at points in this match with Gauff likely to target the second serve, on which she won 59% of the points in that US Open final.
A relatively cool weather forecast (22C) and a slower Rod Laver Arena court than some of the others at Melbourne Park, will potentially help the underdog.
If Gauff is able to get those extra balls back, which Sabalenka has got used to being winners, then I can see a situation where Sabalenka starts to mentally doubt herself.
We’ve seen that look from her on the court in these big matches before and, given the prices available, I think it’s worth taking her on.
Gauff to win is at 9/5 – tempting – but I’m going to go with a 2-1 victory for the American at around the 5/1 mark. That’s been the method of victory in three of her four wins over Sabalenka.
I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see the Belarusian start well again before tensing up as the finish line approaches, so with that in mind, you may want to consider backing Gauff to lose the first set and win the match at a top price of 15/2.
Dayana Yastremska v Qinwen Zheng (after SF1)
I’m not too surprised to see Zheng at this stage of the tournament but fair play to anyone who picked out Yastremska to get this far - the Ukrainian is the first qualifier since Christine Dorey in 1978 to reach the semi-finals of the Australian Open.
After having to battle through the qualifying, she’s done it in style, losing only one set in the main draw, against the in-form Emma Navarro.
Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova was beaten in straight sets, as was two-time winner here, Victoria Azarenka, so Yastremska has not had an easy route.
The same cannot be said of Zheng, who is yet to face anyone from the top 50 with Briton Katie Boulter her highest-ranked opponent thus far. With Yastremska currently ranked 93rd in the world, this has been, potentially, a dream run to a Grand Slam final and I cannot recall one like it.
However, it should be remembered that Yastremska is a former world number 21, one whose career was almost destroyed by a drugs ban over a charge that she was later cleared of.
The past three weeks, she’s been back to something like her best form and it has delivered results, and I’m certainly tempted to get involved with her here.
I highlighted Zheng’s weakness on second serve ahead of her quarter-final with Anna Kalinskaya, a match which saw our bet on the underdog fail from a position of heavy odds-on in play.
That will be an area Yastremska could profit from, especially with Zheng’s first-serve percentage yet to climb above 56% in any round.
As with any first-time Grand Slam semi-finalist, there’s the potential for nerves to cause major problems but the good thing here is that Zheng is also in the same boat.
A small bet on the underdog looks worth a try.
Posted at 1550 GMT on 24/01/24
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