Women's Australian Open final predictions & betting tips

Women’s Australian Open final tips

Aryna Sabalenka is a hot favourite with tennis betting sites to retain her Australian Open title when she faces Qinwen Zheng in the women’s singles final early on Saturday (8.30am, Eurosport 1 & Discovery+).

After suffering a comprehensive beating at the hands of Elena Rybakina in the Brisbane final a fortnight ago, Sabalenka is yet to drop a set in the first Grand Slam tournament of 2024. The world number two has impressed throughout with only Coco Gauff giving her cause for concern in the semi-finals.

Having been beaten by the American in last year’s US Open final, Sabalenka exacted revenge in good style despite conceding a 5-2 lead in the first before winning the tiebreak. Conditions have not been overly quick in Melbourne, but even Gauff could not effectively counter the power of the Florida-based Belarusian.

While Sabalenka and Gauff came through their quarters in routine fashion, the top half of the draw saw surprises aplenty. Rybakina’s epic tiebreak defeat to Anna Blinkova looked like the big earthquake, but proved to be a mere foreshock as Iga Swiatek crashed out to Linda Noskova in round three. That upset saw Sabalenka move to the head of the Australian Open odds with online betting sites.

Two-time Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka was the last previous Slam finalist standing in the top half, but she fell to qualifier Dayana Yastremska in the last 16 with the Ukrainian going on to meet Zheng in the semi-finals.

Zheng has long been touted as a future Slam winner, and a straight-sets win over Yastremska means the Chinese has the chance to emulate 2014 champion Li Na. But the draw has been kind to the 21-year-old who has not faced a player ranked in the top 50 so far. And now she meets a Sabalenka in red-hot form.

Champ can stream roll Zheng

The two have met just once previously with Sabalenka winning 6-1 6-4 in the 2023 US Open quarter-finals. Zheng got just 41 per cent of her first serves in that day and that meant plenty of second serves for Sabalenka to climb into. Zheng’s highest first-serve percentage this tournament is 56 per cent, and that probably won’t be enough with her second delivery somewhat lacking in bite.

In New York, Zheng was not able to trade effectively from the baseline and hit winners until the second set. As shown against Yastremska, her forehand is a real weapon and her movement is excellent. But Gauff is probably the best mover on the tour and even she could not deal with Sabalenka.

It is hard to see Zheng upsetting the Australian Open odds. Sabalenka’s serve has been pretty solid so far and she did not face one break point in their previous encounter. Despite those upsets mentioned, it still looks like there’s a clear Big Four in women’s tennis with Zheng some way behind them. Everything points to a comfortable title defence, but what can we find in terms of bets?

Sabalenka’s match odds of 1/5 on betting apps are far too short to consider, as is the 4/6 about her winning in straight sets. But the 10/11 with Spreadex that there are under 20.5 games in the match could prove generous if Sabalenka retains her title in rapid fashion.

Zheng will no doubt put up a fight, but Sabalenka’s superior ball-striking should see her win the day quite comfortably and claim back-to-back Australian Open triumphs.

Aces may be a rarity

While Sabalenka’s power from all corners is obvious, she is not an especially prolific server of aces with 24 in six matches so far. And Zheng’s athleticism means she does not concede many aces. She gave up just three to Yastremska, who had been serving well, in 20 games in her semi-final. 

That equals the most she has conceded in Melbourne, in her three-set first-round win over Ashlyn Krueger. In their previous meeting, Sabalenka served three aces.

Given that this final could be over in two sets, the under 4.5 Sabalenka aces option on bet365 stands out as our second Australian Open prediction.

Sabalenka serve a little shaky

Also of interest on bet365 is their most double faults market. Zheng served plenty early in the tournament but she’s kept her DF count low of late with just one against Yastremska – who was punishing anything short on second serve – and two in her quarter-final win over Anna Kalinskaya.

Sabalenka may have had fewer doubles during the tournament, but these can mount up when the pressure is on. 

The 5/1 about her to serve most doubles may be a touch large and could represent a saver if she doesn’t have things all her own way.

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Rory Jiwani is a familiar face in the world of betting and sports media with extensive experience working for sports publications like the Sunday Mirror, ITN, Sky Sports News, Stan James, Talksport and the Olympic Channel. Rory is a keen follower of most sports, including horse racing, tennis, cricket and golf. He contributes betting tips for The Independent.