Australian Open 2024 Final: Aryna Sabalenka vs Zheng Qinwen preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick
Fixture:(2) Aryna Sabalenka vs (12) Zheng Qinwen
Date: January 27, 2024
Tournament:Australian Open 2024
Round:Final
Venue:Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
Surface:Hard (Outdoor)
Prize Money:A$86,500,000
Live telecast
Aryna Sabalenka vs Zheng Qinwen preview
Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka will face off against Zheng Qinwen for the 2024 Australian Open title on Saturday (January 27).
Sabalenka made a great start to her title defense with a smooth ride to the semifinals. She eliminated Ella Seidel, Brenda Fruhvirtova, Lesia Tsurenko, Amanda Anisimova and Barbora Krejcikova in straight sets and for the loss of just 16 games to boot.
Coco Gauff awaited Sabalenka in the semifinal, which was a rematch of last year's US Open title bout. The Belarusian fumbled on an early break advantage, but still powered through to a 5-2 lead.
Gauff flipped the script as she swept the next four games to go 6-5 up. She was a couple of points away from taking the set, but Sabalenka broke back to force a tie-break. The defending champion then dominated the tiebreak to capture the opening set.
The two were evenly matched for most of the second set, but Sabalenka got the upper hand in the end. She broke Gauff's serve in the ninth game to go 5-4 up and then served out the match for a 7-6(2), 6-4 win.
Zheng, meanwhile, eliminated Ashlyn Krueger, Katie Boulter, Wang Yafan, Oceane Dodin and Anna Kalinskaya to make the last four of a Major for the first time. She faced off against Ukrainian qualifier Dayana Yastremska in the semifinals.
Zheng overcame a slow start and a 2-0 deficit to turn the tables on Yastremska to take the set. While she initially gave up her early break advantage in the second set, the Chinese snagged another break to go 4-3 up. She held on to the lead for a 6-4, 6-4 victory and moved on to her maiden Grand Slam final.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Zheng Qinwen head-to-head
Sabalenka leads Zheng 1-0 in the head-to-head. She won their previous encounter at the 2023 US Open 6-1, 6-4.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Zheng Qinwen odds
(Odds sourced from BetMGM)
Aryna Sabalenka vs Zheng Qinwen prediction
While Sabalenka cruised through the early rounds, Gauff put her to the test in the semifinals. She overcame stiff competition from her opponent, her own nerves and the occasional misplay to be one win away from a successful title defense.
Sabalenka won 70% of her first-serve points and struck 33 winners against 28 unforced errors. However, she was quite shaky when she came forward to the net to finish off points.
Zheng displayed no signs of first-time jitters as she downed Yastremska to be in the final. The 21-year-old had a good day on serve too, with 76% of first-serve points won.
The two crossed paths just a few months ago in New York and Sabalenka walked away as the victor. Zheng was unable to make a dent in her rival's service games and created zero break-point chances. The Chinese youngster will aim to do better on return this time.
As for Sabalenka, despite some hiccups amid a match, she has found a way to steady herself time and time again. When the errors started to pile up, she took a step back and played with more margin until she felt confident in her ballstriking once again.
Sabalenka also hasn't lost a single set so far, with her match against Gauff being the first time she lost more than three games in a set. Zheng is an equally gifted shotmaker and can match her opponent from the baseline. But if the Belarusian can control her nerves, nothing is stopping her from being crowned the queen of Melbourne Park yet again.
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka to win in three sets.
