Aston Villa vs Sheffield United Odds & Picks

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21 December 2023

Aston Villa vs Sheffield United Odds & Picks

Aston Villa are running over the competition, particularly at home. It's one reason why they're so heavily favored against bottom-dwelling Sheffield United. Our betting picks are therefore looking for creative ways to find value in the lopsided clash.

Aston Villa will seek to move atop the Premier League table when they host Sheffield United on Friday. Our soccer betting odds show they’re heavily favored to do just that while pushing their unbeaten run to 10 matches.

Villa Park has been a fortress for Unai Emery’s side, setting a club record by winning their last 15 league fixtures at home. The last two of those victories came against Manchester City and Arsenal. Another win on Friday would push them to the head of the table as they seek their first title in more than 40 years.

At the opposite end of the table, the visitors have taken just eight points from their first 17 matches. Sheffield United is in last place, having already conceded 43 goals while scoring a league-low 12. Chris Wilder replaced Paul Heckingbottom a few weeks ago, and he’ll be desperate to improve Sheffield’s away total of one point on the season.

Finding points will be a miracle for the visitors, and our Premier League picks and predictions for Aston Villa vs Sheffield United explain why it’s doubtful to occur.

Aston Villa vs Sheffield United best odds

EPL predictions for Aston Villa vs Sheffield United

There’s no one thing people can point to as to why Sheffield United have been so putrid away from home this campaign, but their defense is just as much to blame as anything. They’ve been torched on the wings by nearly every good attacking team they’ve faced, and it’s made life easy for opposing strikers.

How much have Sheffield United struggled with center forwards away from home? In their last four away fixtures in league play, they’ve conceded six goals to starting strikers. That includes a second-half goal to Nicolas Jackson in a 2-0 defeat to Chelsea at the weekend. The away fixture before that saw them concede to each of Burnley’s starting strikers. And that’s not counting the hat trick they conceded to Eddie Nketiah when Arsenal thrashed them 5-0 in late October.

And in a match where there’s simply little value of any kind in the betting market, we’re going to get a bit creative. We’re backing Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins to find the back of the net as his side wins the match with a combo bet.

Watkins has nine goals and six assists in Villa’s 17 Premier League fixtures this season, and he’s bagged another two in UEFA Conference League play. A key reason for his success is the nearly three shots he’s averaging per match.

Sheffield United has conceded 122 shots on target this season while no other team in the league has given up more than 96. Only Fulham is allowing a higher shot-on-target percentage than their 40.1%, and they’re allowing nearly 18 shots in total per match.

Watkins has scored in five of his last seven matches for the club, and I love him to get a goal here. Then again, so does the betting public — he’s priced between -140 and -165 nearly everywhere on offer. So, we’ll combine it with an Aston Villa win.

Leon Bailey & Co. are going to cause havoc on the wings, and Sheffield United’s shown this season they simply can’t prevent wide players creating scoring chances for opposing strikers. Although it’s a bit juicier than I’d like, take the combo play at TonyBet, which at -137 provides one of the best value you’ll find in this fixture.

My best bet: Ollie Watkins anytime goal + Aston Villa moneyline (-137 at TonyBet)

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Aston Villa vs Sheffield United same-game parlay

Aston Villa win to nilOllie Watkins anytime goal

Aston Villa Over 6 corners

We’re still backing Ollie Watkins to score and Villa to win, but rather than combine his goal with the moneyline, we’ll take Aston Villa to win to nil.

Sheffield have scored just four goals in eight away trips this season, with those goals coming against teams like Nottingham Forest and Brighton. They’ve been blanked at Chelsea and Arsenal and will be held scoreless again by a Villa side that’s conceded just five times at Villa Park all season.

Aston Villa have taken the fifth-most corners in the league while Sheffield United’s opponents are averaging seven per match. I expect the home side to take at least seven corners, based on their playstyle against similar opposition leading to that many numerous times this season.

Aston Villa vs Sheffield United side and Over/Under analysis

The line for this match came out more than 10 days ago, and the public hammered it quickly. The 3-way line saw Aston Villa move from -370 to as much as -556 while Sheffield United can be had for as much as +1,400. The draw is also quite profitable with odds of +650 on offer.

Given what we’ve discussed already, it’s improbable that Sheffield get a result here. Their away form is atrocious, and Villa’s fans have turned their grounds into an intimidating atmosphere. Add the return of Douglas Luiz to Villa’s midfield and you’ve got a team that should easily take all three points.

The total of 2.5 goals sees the Over heavily juiced, as you’ll pay well over -200 to play it. The line of 3.5 goals is shaded towards the Under with more reasonable odds.

I’m staying away from the total here as I could see Sheffield being scrappy and still losing 2-0 like they did at Chelsea. But those wishing to take the Over would be wiser to go with the Villa team total.

We’re already on record as backing the home side to keep a clean sheet. With that in mind, we can get odds closer to even money backing Villa to get those three goals on their own.

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Aston Villa vs Sheffield United game info

Aston Villa vs Sheffield United key injuries

Aston Villa: Boubacar Kamara M (Out), Youri Tielemans M (Doubtful), Tyrone Mings D (Out).
Sheffield United: Chris Basham D (Out), John Egan D (Out), Tom Davies M (Out).