Astros-Diamondbacks prediction: Picks, odds on Sunday, October 1

Less than 24 hours after both teams got to celebrate a postseason berth, the Houston Astros (89-72) and Arizona Diamondbacks (84-77) will square off one more time on the final day of the 2023 regular season — with playoff positioning still on the line in each direction. Cristian Javier (9-5, 4.73 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while Ryne Nelson (8-8, 5.35) goes for Arizona. First pitch from Chase Field is set for 3:10 p.m. ET.

Houston will be at worst a Wild Card team, but they still have dreams of a division title — if they win today and get some help in the form of a Rangers loss in Seattle. It’s hard to overstate how big that would be, given that it’s the difference between a first-round bye and a nerve-racking three-game Wild Card series next week. Arizona, meanwhile, is locked into either the second or third NL Wild Card spot, pending the result of both this game and the Marlins’ matchup with the Pirates. If the D-backs win and Miami loses, Arizona gets the fifth seed and a date with the Phillies next week.

The Astros enter as -170 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the D-backs at +142. The run total is set at 9.5.

Astros-Diamondbacks picks: Sunday, October 1

Injury report

Astros

N/A

Diamondbacks

Out: RP Scott McGough (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Cristian Javier vs. Ryne Nelson

Javier’s frustrating second half has continued in September; the righty has an ugly 5.29 since August 1, and he’s allowed three or four runs in four of his five starts this month. His strikeout numbers remain very strong — he’s punched out 36 batters in his last 24.2 innings — but his fastball command has been simply too hit-or-miss. When he keeps it up in the zone, he has a lot of success and looks like the budding ace he did last year; when he misses in the heart of the plate, however, homers typically follow.

Save for an ugly six-run blowup against the Mets earlier in the month, Nelson has been very solid in September, with just three runs total allowed over his other 13.2 innings. He was great earlier this week against the White Sox, spinning 4.2 scoreless frames with just one hit allowed and four strikeouts. Nelson had struggled so badly earlier in the second half — he allowed 12 runs over his first six innings in August — that he was sent down to Triple-A, but that time in the Minors seems to have done him good.

Over/Under pick

The first two games of this series have featured a total of four runs, and if you needed any other reason to back the under here, there’s also the fact that both of these teams might not be playing their best lineups after the festivities of last night. Granted, Houston still does have something very meaningful to play for, but Javier’s looked better of late, and I think he’ll keep Arizona in check and keep us under this total.

Pick: Under 9.5

Moneyline pick

Houston has won the first two games of this series, they have the higher-upside pitcher on the mound (Javier’s stuff has been better than his results of late) and they have by far the biggest thing to play for between these two teams. Arizona should really just be happy to be headed to October, and I think the Astros will come out with some urgency and complete the sweep.