Astros Offseason: Odds of Re-Signing Free Agents and Extending Veterans
The dead season's body isn't even cold and we're talking about the offseason? You're damn right! When your team is good enough to get to game seven of the ALCS, it means they have already played deep into the offseason of most teams in baseball. We are less than four months from pitchers and catchers reporting. That stove is about to get hot and we need to get ready.
Yes, we realize that the biggest potential news in the near term is the likely retirement of manager Dusty Baker and the search for a replacement. We'll get to that...once he actually retires. For now, let's dive into the team's free agents and potential contract extension candidates.
FREE AGENTS
Hector Neris - 30 percent
Neris became one of the team's most reliable closers and a leader in the bullpen. He has a player option for the offseason, but will likely be offered a lot more in free agency. Last winter, Jim Crane prioritized the bullpen and it remained the team's strength the entire year, but it also means locking up Rafael Montero for three years with money probably better spent on Neris. At 34, Neris won't command a long deal, but he'll want more than the $8-plus million on his current option. If the team prioritizes any pitcher re-signing, Neris is likely that guy, but they also hedged by trading for Kendall Graveman, who still has another year left on his contract.
Ryne Stanek - 10 percent
In 2022, Stanek was one of the best relief pitchers in baseball, yet he was left off the postseason roster after injury concerns and, more critically, worries about his command of the strike zone. When Stanek is on, his four-seam fastball is good enough to get any hitter out, but his high WHIP — over 1.2 this year and last — means he has to pitch his way out of a lot of traffic, something he has been less likely to do this season. Some team will undoubtedly give him more money than the Astros are willing to offer him.
Phil Maton - 40 percent
Call it a gut feeling, but at just 30 years old, Maton feels like a guy the Astros might be willing to pay a little extra to keep in the fold. Instead of overwhelming with power, Maton is a spot pitcher who wins his battles with location. He provides a distinct contrast to some of the power arms in the bullpen. His contract this last year was just $2.5 million. Even a small bump in pay over two or three years would probably get the job done and keep the world's most stoic relief pitcher in an Astros uni.
Michael Brantley - 0 percent
Bringing back an injured Uncle Mike was a feel-good concept, but a near total failure in reality. The promise of Brantley's lefty bat and added body in left field seems like a great idea until it became clear his surgically repaired shoulder was more of an issue than anyone previously thought. It is very possible Brantley will retire given the struggles with his shoulder, but even if he doesn't, it is unlikely he is more than a bench player going forward.
Martin Maldonado - 50/50
The much debated offense versus pitcher whisperer catcher position caused Maldonado to take far more grief than he probably deserved this year. Despite being the worst offensive position player in baseball, he hit a career high 15 home runs and was the everyday catcher right through the playoffs. Yainer Diaz will take over full-time catching duties next year, but the Astros will be in search of a backup. If Maldy is willing to play part time and take over the role of mentor, it could be a good fit and the Astros would probably be open, but that's assuming Maldonado is game.
Framber Valdez had a very weird year which could impact his desire for an extension.
Photo by Jack Gorman
POSSIBLE EXTENSIONS
Jose Altuve - 70 percent
This season, even with the missed games due to a broken hand, it is reasonable to suggest that Altuve is the greatest Astro of all time. If there was an argument to be made in the regular season, that was only fortified in the playoffs where each time he gets there, Altuve adds more records to his incredible resume. A final extension would very likely mean Altuve will finish his career in an Astros uniform. Both sides seem to want to make that happen and we could see this getting done this offseason.
Alex Bregman - 10 percent
The Astros third baseman was, once again, terrific in the field this year, but his prowess at the plate was inconsistent at best. With a September surge, he managed to push his OPS just over .800 and he did hit 25 home runs, but he remains well below his best seasons of 2018 and 2019. Bregman turns 30 this offseason and has one year left on his current deal. He seems like a guy hellbent on testing free agency, and the contract dollars promise to be through the roof. Right now, there is no heir apparent at third base in the farm system. Will Wagner, son of former Astros closer Billy Wagner, has had some success there in the minors, but isn't considered a good long term option at the hot corner. So, the Astros may think twice before balking at big numbers for Bregman, but the number of years he may want could keep them out of the running.
Framber Valdez - 25 percent
What a bizarre year for the Astros starting lefty. He was terrible and brilliant with flashes of a future ace and other moments of complete confusion. A no hitter one game, not making it through the fourth inning the next. Nothing but ground ball outs for a week followed by a spate of homers the next. At 30, Valdez has two more years of arbitration (including this offseason) before he hits the market, but what is a reasonable amount for a guy whose consistency at his age is, at best, complicated? If that weren't enough, this is a team with quite a few very solid starting arms including a pair returning from injury next season. There could potentially be six, even seven starters vying for five spots in the rotation, with at least two decent arms in the minors maybe only a year away from the big leagues. It's a lot for GM Dana Brown to consider.
Kyle Tucker - 5 percent
It feels like just a few months ago, everyone was demanding a long term extension for the Astros left fielder. Why not? He is likely to finish among the leaders in the AL MVP balloting based solely on his regular season performance. But his defense has regressed and his poor postseason showing would be cause for concern enough if it weren't for the fact that he has never been great in the playoffs to begin with. Tucker is young, the youngest of potential free agents over the next few seasons, which gives him some room for arguing that he deserves a long term deal. But, even the arbitrator sided with the Astros last year in his hearing, which ain't a great sign. In the end, the Astros may have been wise to hold their ground on not giving out a nine- or ten-year deal, even if it is to someone like Tucker who would be in his prime for most of that contract.
