Astros vs Braves Prediction, Picks, Odds

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23 April 2023

Astros vs Braves Prediction, Picks, Odds

Sportsbooks are pricing tonight's showdown between the Braves and Astros fairly tight, but our MLB picks see a disparity on the mound that should dictate this matchup.

The Houston Astros will look to clinch an interleague series win when they take on the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on Saturday night.

Houston (10-10) took the first game of the series on Friday when they came from four runs down to beat Atlanta (14-6) by a 6-4 final.

The Braves have been great for bettors so far this season, but they face a difficult pitching matchup at home today. We’ll break down what to expect from this game in our free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs Braves on April 22.

Astros vs Braves odds

Astros vs Braves predictions

The Braves are off to a great start in 2023, as they lead the NL East by a half-game over the New York Mets and boast a strong +30 run differential. They’ve also been great for bettors, as they’re up more than six units on the moneyline already this season.

Conversely, the Astros are struggling to get off the ground in April. Nobody is worried about the team in Houston, but they’re just 10-10 to start the year, 2.5 games back of the Texas Rangers in the AL West.

Small sample size aside, these teams grade out similarly so far this season, and both are World Series contenders. And with Framber Valdez on the mound, the Astros have a good chance to beat anyone in the league.

While Valdez is just 1-2 on the year through his first four starts, it’s not because he’s been struggling on the mound. The lefty has pitched to a 1.80 ERA this season, and hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in any game. Valdez has also allowed just one home run on the year, and keeping the ball in the park will be key against a Braves team that has already gone deep 27 times in 2023.

The Braves will combat Valdez by putting Kyle Wright on the mound. Atlanta has won both of his starts, but that’s been thanks to an offense that has bailed him out in two poor performances. Wright’s thrown just 8.2 innings combined in those outings, giving up six earned runs. Concerningly, he has walked seven batters in that limited amount of work.

Houston has scored 5.1 runs per game on the season, and even though the Astros lineup performs better against southpaws, it’s been able to get the job done against righthanded pitching as well, putting up a .695 OPS vs. righties.

Oddsmakers see a tight game here, with most sites offering dead even odds on both sides. The assumption is that with two good teams playing, Atlanta’s home-field advantage and better play early in the year should cancel out Houston’s pitching edge.

But Valdez has been far better than Wright on the year, and that should give the Astros the edge on Saturday. The Houston lineup should score enough to give Valdez a comfortable lead, and that’s enough to make me bet the Astros on the moneyline tonight.

My best bet: Astros moneyline (-105 at WynnBET)

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Astros vs Braves moneyline analysis

The Astros started today’s game as a slight favorite, with many sites posting Houston at -115 when the line opened. Currently, almost all sites have this game dead even, with -105 odds the best you can find on Houston. You also won’t do much better than -104 on the Braves, even at the few books that still have the Astros favored.

Houston is 4-3 on the road so far this season, and got the win Friday in its first meeting with the Braves. Atlanta hasn’t been great at home, either, going 4-4 at Truist Park while putting up a great 10-2 number on the road. It’s far too early in the season to read anything into these trends, but it’s something to consider when today’s line seems to be putting a lot of stock into the Braves’ home-field advantage.

Once again, I think the key to this game is the pitching matchup, which skews heavily in Houston’s favor. Not only has Valdez been excellent to start the year, but he’s been going deep into games, which means he should be able to contain the Braves for at least six or seven frames. On the other hand, Wright has struggled to stay on the mound, and Atlanta might need to use several pitchers to get through the game.

The dangerous Houston lineup should be able to find plenty of opportunities to score, either against Wright or the parade of relievers it faces in the back half of the game. I’m on the Astros for a moneyline bet in this matchup.

Astros vs Braves Over/Under analysis

The total on this game opened at 8.5 runs, and has pretty much stayed there across the board. Some sites are hedging towards the Under, however, and you can get +100 on the Over if you’re so inclined.

Both teams here have capable lineups, with each scoring just over five runs per game so far on the season. The Over is doing well in both teams’ games too, going 13-6-1 in Houston games and 11-9 when Atlanta is playing.

I think Houston will definitely do its part on Saturday against a struggling Wright. The question is whether Atlanta can contribute enough runs against Valdez to make it worthwhile to take that even-money bet on nine or more runs being scored.

It’s worth keeping in mind that the Braves do mash against lefthanded pitching. They’re putting up a massive .849 OPS and have a .305 batting average against southpaws in the early going, though that’s based on a sample size of just 200 at-bats. They won’t be able to keep up that torrid pace against Valdez, but they won’t be overmatched, either.

With that in mind, I’m leaning towards the Over, especially if you can get the +100 odds currently available at a few books.

Astros vs Braves game info

Astros vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Framber Valdez (1-2, 1.80 ERA): Valdez is having another excellent start in 2023, putting up a 1.16 WHIP and striking out 25 batters over his first 25 innings of work. However, the results haven’t come for him just yet, as his only win came against the Pittsburgh Pirates earlier this month. In his last start, he gave up five runs over six innings, though only one of those runs was earned, and he allowed just four hits to the Rangers.

Kyle Wright (0-0, 6.23 ERA): After an impressive 21-5 campaign for the Braves in 2022, Wright doesn’t look like the same pitcher he was last season. Instead, he’s throwing like the pitcher that struggled to crack the Atlanta rotation for the first four years of his career due to a lack of command. In his last start, Wright went 5.2 innings and gave up two runs on four hits and three walks against the Kansas City Royals in a game the Braves would ultimately win 5-4.