Astros vs Rangers Predictions, Picks, Odds

Covers

19 October 2023

Texas won both games in H-Town and will now send Max Scherzer to the hump in hopes of landing a 3-0 ALCS lead. However, Mad Max hasn't pitched in a month while Yordan Alvarez is red hot... and our MLB picks don't expect the Astros slugger to cool down.

The Texas Rangers pulled off an impressive feat by taking the first two games of the ALCS against the Houston Astros in hostile territory — shaking up the World Series odds for the American League teams.

The Rangers return home with a commanding 2-0 lead and will attempt to send the Astros to the brink of elimination when they had the ball to one of the toughest competitors in the sport — Mad Max Scherzer — who will be making his first start in over a month.

But don’t count the Stros out yet, as they counter Scherzer with playoff edition Cristian Javier. Yordan Alvarez and the Houston lineup will try to ambush Scherzer before he can shake off the rust.

Astros vs Rangers odds

Astros vs Rangers Game 3 odds

Astros vs Rangers series odds

Astros vs Rangers predictions

Talk about being thrown into the fire. Max Scherzer will take the ball in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series in the hopes he can stake his team to a 3-0 lead and put the Astros on the brink of elimination.

There are just a few things standing in his way.

For starters, Scherzer hasn’t pitched since a Sept. 12 meeting against the Blue Jays due to a sore shoulder muscle in his throwing arm. Pitching in the postseason is never easy, but making your first start in over a month in the playoffs is even tougher.

Obviously, Mad Max is built for any situation, but there’s also the fact the future Hall of Famer was starting to show his age this season. The right hander was pitching to a 3.77 ERA, a FIP of 4.23, and had strikeouts per nine innings of 10.1. Those were some of his worst marks since his time in Detroit.

Then there is the issue of having to deal with this Houston Astros lineup. Even though the Astros haven’t been putting their best swings on the ball this series there is at least one Astros’ player Scherzer will need to look out for. That player is of course, Yordan Alvarez.

Alvarez is coming off another fantastic season in which he hit .293 with 31 home runs and 97 RBIs in just 114 games. He's carried his strong year into the postseason, mashing for a .391 average with a 1.261 OPS through six playoff games. That includes two doubles and six home runs already... the guy is just from another planet.

And even though it’s not the largest sample size, he’s seen the ball well out of Scherzer’s hand. Alvarez is 4-for-7 with three walks and you guessed it, a home run in 10 career plate appearances vs. Scherzer. That’s good for a .571 batting average and a 1.000 slugging percentage. Not OPS. Slugging.

Alvarez has hit the Over on 1.5 total bases in five of his six postseason games, and yet, sportsbooks are still giving us +135 on the Over. Until they adjust, I’m going to keep betting it.

My best bet: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)

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Astros vs Rangers same-game parlay

Alvarez Over 1.5 TB

Scherzer Over 1.5 earned runs

Javier Over 4.5 Ks

I’m betting Alvarez isn't the only Astros player that does some damage against Scherzer. While Houston's lineup hasn’t been firing on all cylinders this series, the potential for a breakout game is there. And this is a tough lineup to face on a good day, let alone when it’s your first start in over a month. So, I’m tacking on Scherzer Over 1.5 earned runs allowed.

My SGP will tell you a little bit about how I’m feeling this game will go. That’s because I’m adding Cristian Javier Over 4.5 strikeouts. Just like playoff Eovaldi is a thing, playoff Javier is a thing. He proved that with five innings of one-hit, shutout ball while striking out nine over five innings in the ALDS against the Minnesota Twins.

The Texas Rangers were a middle-of-the-pack team when it came to strikeout rate vs. right-handers this season only and the Twins have struck out more than them at this point in the postseason.

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Astros vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Rangers have taken a 2-0 lead in the ALCS thanks to two outstanding pitching performances. But it’s hard to tell whether you are going to get that from Scherzer in Game 3. Nonetheless, his name alone may be why Texas is a -130 favorite as of Tuesday night... but should they be?

For starters, the Astros have been one of the best road teams in baseball all season long, going 53-30 including the postseason.

Then there is playoff Javier. The RHP has a career 1.91 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .119 batting average over 15 career postseason appearances. He also hasn’t allowed a run on just two hits in 16 1/3 innings over his last three postseason starts dating back to last season.

While the Rangers tagged him earlier in the season, he still has decent numbers against this lineup, limiting them to a .244 average and striking out 23% of batters faced.

With Scherzer coming off an extended IL stint, I think it’s hard to look at the Astros as +110 underdogs in this spot and not see some value.

When it comes to the total it hit the board at 9.0 and has been bumped up to 9.5. I’m staying away from the total because it feels like there is a wide variance in outcomes for both starters — particularly Scherzer.

Trend to know

The Astros have hit the moneyline in 34 of their last 48 away games for +16.3 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers

Astros vs Rangers game info

Starting pitchers

Cristian Javier (1-0, 0.00 ERA):Javier has now thrown 16 1/3 consecutive scoreless postseason innings. The righty has also allowed just two hits and struck out 23 over that stretch.

Max Scherzer (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Scherzer is hoping this game goes better than his last postseason start where he allowed seven earned runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 innings vs. the Padres last October.