Astros vs Twins Game 4 Player Props, Odds & Picks on October 11

Sports Betting Dime

11 October 2023

Astros vs Twins Game 4 Player Props, Odds & Picks on October 11

The Minnesota Twins (90-77, 49-35 home) finally broke a two decade-plus playoff series drought with a Wild Card victory over Toronto this year. But the joy is going to be short-lived unless the Twinkies can find a way to beat Jose Urquidy and the Houston Astros (92-73, 52-30 away) tonight in Game 4 of the ALDS (7:07 pm ET).

Houston used a four-run first inning to power itself to a 9-1 rout in Game 3 on Tuesday, taking a 2-1 series lead in the process and pushing Minnesota to within a game of elimination. With both teams trotting out starters from the back end of their rotations, the Twins are given a slight edge in the Game 4 odds.

Astros vs Twins Odds (Game 4)

Minnesota is a -120 moneyline favorite and +162 to win by multiple runs. Houston, which cashed as a +114 road underdogs in Tuesday’s MLB odds, comes back as an even-money underdog (+100) for Game 4. Though it should be noted that the line is slightly different across books. The longest price on the Astros at the moment is +106 at FanDuel. The odds above, which are from Caesars, feature the longest price on the Twins, who are -125 or shorter at FanDuel, DraftKings, and Bet365.

Odds as of Oct. 11 at Caesars. Claim a Caesars promo code to wager on Game 4 between the Astros and Twins.

HOU vs MIN Game 4 Probable Pitchers

The Astros are not in an ideal position, pitching-wise. Jose Urquidy is listed as the starter in Wednesday’s MLB lineups. Urquidy is coming off by far the worst regular season of this three-plus-year career, posting a 5.29 ERA and 1.43 WHIP that got him relegated to the bullpen for a spell.

That said, he did have his best start of the season in his last outing, throwing six scoreless innings of two-hit ball against Arizona on Sep. 29. His previous appearance was also three scoreless (and hitless) innings, albeit in relief, on Sep. 24 against the Royals. Those two appearances lowered his era from 6.14 to its current 5.29.

Jose Urquidy vs Joe Ryan

After a promising rookie season, Joe Ryan’s career also took a downward trajectory in 2023. The 27-year-old righty saw his ERA balloon from 3.55 as a rookie to 4.51 as a sophomore, while his WHIP went from 1.10 to 1.18. He was somewhat unlucky though, based on his peripherals. His strikeout rate rose from 25% to 29.3% and his xERA (3.53) was almost a full run lower than his actual ERA.

There is very limited history between the Twins hitters and 28-year-old Urquidy. Minnesota’s lineup has just 34 total at-bats against the Mexican. While they have an excellent average (.324), they have yet to hit a home run and recorded just two RBI.

There is a little more history between Ryan and the Astros lineup, and it’s not terribly favorable for the Twins starter. In 53 at-bats, Houston batters have an ugly .208 batting average, but they’ve cranked three home runs and two doubles and collected 13 RBI in those 53 at-bats.

Ryan started twice against the Astros this season, giving up a total of nine earned runs (including three homers) over just 10.0 innings pitched. He also gave up four earned runs in his lone start against Houston last season in just 4.0 IP, though he did at least keep the ball in the park.

Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Chas McCormick are the Houston hitters who have previously taken Ryan deep. The MLB public betting splits are all over Houston to end the series tonight: the Astros are getting 95% of moneyline handle as slim road underdogs, by far the most among the six teams in action today.

Astros vs Twins Game 4 Player Props

After mashing two home runs yesterday, Jose Abreu is listed at a surprisingly long +600 to hit another in Game 4. The shortest odds to homer in Game 4, very unsurprisingly, belong to Yordan Alvarez. Not only has Alvarez homered in all three games so far, including two in Game 1, he also laced two doubles yesterday and has a preposterous 2.205 OPS after three postseason games.

Among the two starters, Ryan has the higher O/Us, listed with a strikeout prop of 4.5 and a total-outs prop of 14.5. Urquidy’s over/unders sit at just 3.5 Ks and 10.5 outs, meaning two outs in the fourth inning would get him to the over.

Astros vs Twins Game 4 Predictions

Neither starting pitcher inspires much confidence tonight, and Houston’s penchant for putting up runs against Ryan should be particularly concerning for Minnesota backers.

I have a strong lean towards the Astros at plus-money, but I also expect Urquidy to get tagged. Even with his “A” stuff yesterday, Cristian Javier was flirting with disaster throughout his five innings and Minnesota had runners all over the base paths.

The playoff-savvy Astros advance in the MLB playoff bracket, but not without a strong offensive push from the Twins.