Astros vs. Twins prediction: Pick, odds for Game 4 of ALDS in 2023 MLB playoffs
After a 9-1 romp silenced Target Field in Game 3, the Houston Astros are looking to punch their ticket to a seventh straight ALCS while the Minnesota Twins try to send this ALDS back to Houston for a Game 5 on Friday. First pitch of Game 4 is set for 7:07 p.m. ET. The Astros will send Jose Urquidy (3-3, 5.29 ERA) to the mound, while the Twins give the ball to Joe Ryan (11-10, 4.51) in a must-win spot.
Minnesota enters as -125 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Houston at +105. The run total is set at 8.
Astros vs. Twins ALDS Game 4 picks: Wednesday, October 11
Injury report
Astros
N/A
Twins
Out: DH/OF Byron Buxton (knee)
Starting pitchers
Jose Urquidy vs. Joe Ryan
Urquidy hasn’t been a full-time member of Houston’s rotation since April due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness, but with Hunter Brown and J.P. France struggling down the stretch of the regular season, Dusty Baker is giving the veteran righty the ball for a crucial start. His recent performance is probably a major reason why: Urquidy’s last start of the year was a great one, firing six shutout innings with just two hits allowed in a win over the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 29. Still, he threw just 16.1 innings in September, and with a nearly two-week layoff, it’s unlikely Houston will look to him for a ton of length — expect all bullpen hands on deck with an off-day looming on Thursday. Urquidy faced the Twins once before this season, holding Minnesota to one run over 5.1 innings back on April 7.
Ryan looked like a Cy Young dark horse through the first three months of the regular season, with his ERA sitting at 2.98 after a three-hit shutout of the Boston Red Sox on June 22. From there, though, the wheels came off a bit: Ryan allowed 31 runs and a whopping 17 homers over his next seven starts, eventually getting put on the IL with a groin strain after a seven-run blowup against the Cardinals at the start of August. The righty was a bit better upon returning, but he closed the year on a down note, with a 7.31 ERA over his last three starts. When he’s right, Ryan’s explosive four-seam fastball is one of the very best in the Majors, setting up his splitter as an out pitch. Recently, though, the heater hasn’t had nearly the ride it usually does, turning a lot of the fly balls Ryan generates (ninth-percentile ground-ball rate) into homers.
Over/Under pick
An Astros team that’s clubbed seven homers in its two wins in this series — including four yesterday — now faces a pitcher who’s had trouble with the long ball since the All-Star break. That sounds like trouble to me, and that’s not even getting into Urquidy’s spotty track record this season. In an elimination game, both bullpens figure to be heavily involved, so there’s a chance this one gets weird. But after 10 runs in Game 3, I’m backing the over here again.
Pick: Over 8
Moneyline pick
Houston’s lineup is firing on all cylinders, and the Twins have a major question mark on the mound to start even given a likely quick hook from Rocco Baldelli should Ryan get into trouble. That’s more than enough for me to back the deeper, more experienced team here, especially at plus odds.
