Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Odds, Prediction & Pick for Game 4
Astros vs. Twins Odds
Following a 9-1 victory on Tuesday afternoon, the Houston Astros have an opportunity on Wednesday to clinch their seventh consecutive trip to the American League Championship Series. Jose Urquidy will get the ball in Game 4 for the Astros, who will be opposed by Joe Ryan for the Minnesota Twins. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET from Target Field.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Twins as -125 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Houston Astros
Jose Urquidy looking to send Astros to ALCS
It is doubtful that Jose Urquidy will last long in tonight’s contest. Across the final two months of the regular season, Urquidy was used in a variety of different roles, throwing as many as six innings in a start and as few as 1.1 innings in relief. During that stretch, he was mostly ineffective, posting a 5.35 ERA, 5.21 FIP, and a 1.33 WHIP.
Similar to Joe Ryan, Urquidy is a fly-ball pitcher, finishing in only the 19th percentile in ground ball rate during the regular season. Urquidy is most vulnerable against right-handed batters, but most of the damage done against him came when facing a lineup for the second time in a game this season. It would not be surprising to see him tasked with getting through two innings this evening before handing things over to the Houston bullpen, with the benefit of an off-day tomorrow if this series gets pushed to a decisive Game 5.
Yordan Alvarez propelling Houston offense
Yordan Alvarez has four home runs through the first three games of the Division Series, which is tied for the third-most all-time in a best-of-five matchup, according to Brian McTaggart. Through three games, Alvarez has numbers that wouldn’t even seem real in a videogame – posting a 2.205 OPS and an .862 wOBA.
Still, Alvarez is only one of a collection of hitters who have found success against Minnesota’s pitching in the past week. Jose Abreu had a two-homer game on Tuesday, and eight of Houston’s nine offensive starters recorded at least one hit in the victory.
Even having scored nine runs in Game 3, the Astros left a lot of potential runs on the bases, going 3-for-14 with runners-in-scoring position (RISP). Through three games in this series, the Astros have now had 31 at-bats with RISP, but are only 6-for-31 (.194 batting average) with those opportunities. If Houston can get a key hit or two this evening, they could find themselves moving on to the ALCS.
Astros’ bullpen overperforming expectations in ALDS
In 2022, Houston had seven different relievers throw at least 16.1 innings while posting a 3.00 FIP or better across the final two months of the regular season. Using those same parameters in 2023, Houston had only two relievers meet that criteria. Expanding the criteria, the Astros had only five relievers post a sub-4.00 FIP with at least 16.0 innings of work across August and September this season.
Yet, through three games in this series, the Houston arm barn has covered 11.2 innings with minimal damage allowed. This unit was excellent again on Tuesday, allowing only one earned run and three total baserunners across four innings. Other than Hunter Brown, everyone in this unit is rested and available in Game 4 as they look to close out this series.
Minnesota Twins
Joe Ryan to make playoff debut in Game 4
It surprised many fans when Joe Ryan was not given the ball in Game 1 at Minute Maid Park, but tonight, they are likely to see exactly why the Twins saved him for a home start in Game 4.
During the regular season, Ryan ranked in the 9th percentile in ground ball rate, 32nd percentile in Hard-Hit percentage, 34th percentile in barrel rate, and 23rd percentile in average exit velocity. In Houston, the Crawford Boxes in left field are 315 feet from home plate. At Target Field, Ryan has an extra 24 feet of distance to the left field corner, and this evening he has the benefit of frigid temperatures with a decent wind blowing in towards the first base dugout.
The dimensions at Target Field played a significant role in Ryan’s stark home-and-away splits during the regular season. At home, Ryan posted a 3.04 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, and allowed 1.31 HR/9, compared to a 5.27 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, and 2.27 HR/9 on the road. Ryan still has to contend with a tough Houston lineup in Game 4, but he is positioned as well as he possibly could be for success in this series.
Twins’ bats looking for life at home
In three home games to begin these playoffs, Minnesota has scored a total of six runs. The offense is a dreadful 2-for-19 (.105 batting average) with RISP and has only three extra-base hits at Target Field in that span.
The Twins had the 5th-most home runs of any offense in the big leagues across their final 22 regular season contests, but there has been a salient lack of power production from this lineup in their first six postseason contests. Playing in cold temperatures with the wind blowing in from left field on Wednesday is unlikely to help matters.
Minnesota high-leverage options rested heading into Wednesday
Sonny Gray failed to get deep into yesterday’s ballgame, but Manager Rocco Baldelli did a good job saving his high-leverage arms by going to Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda in long-relief to cover 3.1 innings.
Heading into Game 4, all of the Twins’ top bullpen options are well rested. Jhoan Duran has not thrown either of the last two days. Caleb Thielbar and Chris Paddack have not appeared in a game since Saturday. Emilio Pagan and Griffin Jax each appeared in Game 3, but both threw 14 pitches or less, meaning that they are likely available tonight.
It will be all hands on deck for the Minnesota bullpen tonight as they look to extend their season to a Game 5 in Houston.
Twins vs. Astros Pick & Prediction
Neither starting pitcher in this contest inspires much confidence, but the cold temperatures and the pitcher-friendly wind direction should be enough to keep this contest low-scoring in the early frames with two fly-ball pitchers on the mound. Minnesota is looking to save their season, which means Joe Ryan will have an extremely short leash. Jose Urquidy is likely to be on a short leash as well, with the benefit of an off-day tomorrow, regardless of the outcome of tonight’s affair.
Expect both of these managers to limit the damage done by their starters. Both bullpens have been sharp so far this postseason, which means runs could be hard to come by in Game 4.
PICK: Under 8.5 (-125, Fanatics Sportsbook)
