Astros vs. Yankees prediction and odds for Friday, August 4 (Can Severino Fix it?)

This is still one of baseball’s most heated rivalries, but because the 57-52 New York Yankees are in last place in the AL East this year, Yanks-Astros has lost a bit of its luster. Thursday, New York took down Houston 4-3 in the Bronx, dropping the 'Stros to 62-48, still 1.5 games behind Texas for first in the AL West. 

On the mound for the second game of four will be Hunter Brown and Luis Severino. Brown has a 4.12 ERA and a 7-7 record in 20 starts this year, while Severino is 2-5 with a 7.49 ERA. 

The Astros are road favorites with Severino and the last place Yankees struggling. Let’s get into the odds. 

The past 30 days haven’t been great offensively for the Houston Astros. They’ve been winning games, but they’re only 14-10 over that stretch. They are 16th in team ERA, so the pitching hasn’t been great either, but the offense is 14th in OPS and 11th in runs. While that’s better than the pitching staff, that’s below the expectation for a team as loaded as Houston is. 

The Yankees have been a whole lot worse. They have only scored 82 runs over that stretch and have a .676 team OPS, which ranks 25th in baseball over that time. Now, they’re without Anthony Rizzo, who has apparently had a concussion since May, more than likely causing his poor play. Lately, Jake Bauers has turned into one of their best hitters (.475 SLG this season), and will ostensibly be in his place.

Brown has been good in each of his last two starts, one against Oakland and one against Tampa Bay. New York fits in as another bad offense, at least lately. Brown has a FIP of 3.71 and 126 strikeouts to just 37 walks in 111.1 innings. He has allowed four homers over his last three starts and that’s really the only way the Yankees can score runs, so that could be a concern. 

Despite the recent power surge against him, I have faith in Brown delivering a good start, and there’s almost no way to expect that out of Severino. He got shelled last time out, giving up nine runs over 3.1 innings against Baltimore. However, he keeps mixing in strong starts to his disasters. In his career, he’s made six starts against Houston and has a 3.82 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 37.2 innings, but it’s so hard to say which version we’ll get tonight. 

Severino could give up nine runs in the first inning and this could blow up in my face, but I like the under in this one because of his track record against Houston and the issues that both teams are going through offensively. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change