Auburn vs. Tennessee prediction: College basketball odds, picks, bets
The Tennessee Volunteers will put their four-game winning streak on the line when they host the Auburn Tigers in a matchup that could decide the SEC regular-season title.
Tennessee sits atop the conference in a tie with Alabama with 11-3 marks, with Auburn and South Carolina just one game behind.
The Volunteers opened as 4.5-point favorites, but that number (as of this writing) is up to -6.5 across the board.
This is one of the more puzzling spreads I’ve seen this season, given Auburn’s quality and impressive 17-8-2 against the spread (ATS) mark.
Sometimes, it’s best not to force a play when you can’t explain what’s behind a market move. As a result, I prefer to pivot to the total, where I feel I’ll have a more significant edge in cashing a ticket on this game.
Although the Tigers have been good this season, there are some red flags that concern me.
It might sound harsh, but their non-conference loss on the road to Appalachian State as a 7.5-point favorite was inexcusable.
While Appalachian State is 2-0 in Quad 1 games (beat James Madison away), TeamRankings doesn’t project the school as an NCAA Tournament team unless it wins the Sun Belt.
Auburn also has two double-digit losses, with one coming as a nine-point favorite at home against Kentucky. In comparison, Tennessee has only one double-digit loss, which occurred on the road as a short favorite.
Based on those numbers, there’s a bit of inconsistency with this Tigers team — enough for me to hesitate to take the points with them in this spot.
One area in which they are consistent is their style of play on the road. Auburn ranks 102nd in pace with 72.2 possessions per game and averages 73.1 at home.
But on the road, Auburn averages almost two fewer possessions (71.3) per game in a conference known for its fast pace.
That discrepancy suggests the Tigers aren’t as successful in dictating the game’s pace on the road.
As for the Volunteers, they play slightly slower, ranking 120th with 71.8 possessions per game. At home, the Volunteers’ possessions drop to 71.3 — precisely what Auburn averages on the road.
Therefore, when we assess this matchup in terms of which team is more likely to control the pace, I’d have to give the edge to the Volunteers.
While the Over is 15-12 in Tennessee’s games this season, per KillerSports.com, its average total was only 144. As a result, I don’t think either team will look to turn this game into a track meet.
Instead, I project we’ll see fewer than 72 possessions for each side, which makes a total of 152.5 points seem a bit lofty.
It’s worth noting these are two teams that rank in the top five of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Tennessee ranks second, allowing 91.6 points per 100 possessions, while Auburn is three spots behind, allowing 92.5.
Given the magnitude of this heavyweight SEC matchup, we could see a few jitters from the players on the court.
(7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
While I often consider qualitative aspects as part of my handicap, my analysis here is deeply rooted in my numbers. With fewer than 72 possessions for both teams, my model projects a total closer to 148.3 points.
To further validate my numbers, I ran a similar projection using Pomeroy’s numbers, which tend to be more aggressive than mine, and the result was a total of 149.65 points.
The market has consistently mispriced the total in Auburn’s games, given its average total of 150.9 points. Yet, the Tigers are 15-11 to the Under this season.
In SEC games, they are 9-5 to the Under, and when the total opened at 152.5 or higher, our Action Labs database shows the under is 4-1.
For those reasons, I recommend playing this game under 152.5 points.
Pick: Under 152.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Michael Arinze is a sports handicapper for Action Network. Follow him on X @Vegas_Analytics.
