Princeton vs. Harvard odds, prediction: College basketball picks
The Princeton Tigers hope to make a run at the Ivy League title by extending their winning streak to five games.
Princeton sits one game behind Yale and Cornell, who are tied for first place.
Next up for the Tigers is a visit to Cambridge on Friday night to face Harvard. This will be the second meeting between the two teams after Princeton looked dominant in an 89-58 home victory in early January.
The Tigers opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but that number has now dropped to 6.5 at some sportsbooks.
While I’ve always been steadfast in trying to avoid laying points on the road, my power ratings suggest there’s enough separation between these two teams that this might be an exception.
Despite losing Tosan Evbuomwan (15.1 points per game) and Ryan Langborg (12.7) from last year’s Sweet 16 team, the Tigers look committed to making another run in March.
Princeton did return two starters with senior guard Matt Allocco and Ivy League Rookie of the Year Caden Pierce.
Both players have increased their scoring, with Allocco upping his average from 10.7 to 13 points, while Pierce has significantly improved from 8.2 to 15.
However, there’s been an even bigger surprise with another sophomore. Toronto’s Xaivian Lee leads the Tigers with 18.0 points per game after averaging 4.8 last season while coming off the bench.
The advanced metrics suggest that this 2024 offense for the Tigers is even better than the one that upset second-seeded Arizona team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Using Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, the Tigers rank 29th (116.6 points per 100 possessions) compared to 97th (109.5) a season ago.
And if you look at their adjusted efficiency margin, they rank 69th (+11.97) vs. 91st (+8.04) in the previous campaign.
The Tigers are coming off a 73-62 victory over Yale as they avenged one of their two Ivy League losses. That could provide a boost heading into a hostile environment in Cambridge.
Although the Crimson brought two starters back, they only returned 29% of their player minutes from last season.
Freshman guard Mailk Mack (18.5 points per game) and sophomore forward Chisom Okpara (18.5) are the only double-digit scorers on the team.
Harvard is relying on its youth, but they likely still need some more seasoning.
Inexperience and inconsistency are two words that come to mind when describing the Crimson, who are four games out of first place in the conference.
Harvard’s goal this season is really to be one of the four teams that competes in the Ivy League Tournament.
If we’re trying to compare Harvard to the top three teams (Yale, Cornell and Princeton) in the conference, I don’t think the Crimson are in the same ballpark.
Harvard has lost all four of its games against the top Ivy League teams this season by double digits and a combined 70 points.
While there’s no question Mack and Okpara are talented underclassmen, the lack of senior leadership is proving costly for such a young team.
I don’t doubt the revenge angle is appealing for this game after Harvard lost by 31 points in the last meeting. However, based on my model, these teams are too far apart.
Last season, I had them separated by five points on a neutral floor, and Pomeroy’s numbers were even more aggressive, with the Tigers being seven points better.
This season, I give Princeton a 10-point edge on a neutral court.
But if you can’t seem to get off the revenge angle, then consider how Harvard has performed in a head-to-head conference game after losing by 31 or more points.
While there have only been two instances, our Action Labs database shows that Harvard is 0-2 against the spread in this situational spot.
And if we look at how the Tigers have performed over the last two seasons when the line moves against them, they’re 6-1 against the spread for 4.4 units.
I think that record speaks to the quality of this Tigers team, and I’m willing to fade the market yet again and lay the seven points DraftKings is offering on the road.
Pick: Princeton -7 (-110, BetMGM)
