Tennis betting tips: Australian Open day 14 best bets Saturday January 27
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open
1pt Aryna Sabalenka to win, serve the fewest aces and the fewest double faults at 13/10 (bet365)
1pt under 8.5 games in the first set at 9/5 (Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM)
Qinwen Zheng v Aryna Sabalenka (0830 GMT)
With no disrespect meant to Zheng, it kind of felt like Thursday’s clash between Sabalenka and Coco Gauff was the real final at this year’s Australian Open.
Sabalenka had battered all-comers ahead of the semi-final and there was a theory that the extra quality brought to the court by Gauff could be her undoing.
But the test was passed with flying colours.
Both players produced a high level of tennis yet Sabalenka triumphed in straight sets.
Of particular note was how she put a first-set wobble – one I suggested could occur – to one side. Having led 5-2, she was taken into a tie-break but when concerns of another ‘choke’ must have been beginning to build, the Belarusian played an excellent breaker to move in front.
Sabalenka subsequently comes into this contest yet to lose a set in the tournament and having spent four and a half hours less on court in Melbourne than her final opponent.
Zheng has had a remarkable route through to her first Grand Slam final.
She hasn’t played anyone inside the world’s top 50 to reach this stage – and this is the only time that’s happened at a Slam in the past four decades! She is also only the third woman to reach a Slam final without facing a seed, the last being Martina Hingis in at Wimbledon in 1997.
As a result, this is a huge step up in class.
Sabalenka has clearly been the best player in the draw so far and it is asking an awful lot to make this leap.
Could Zheng compete? Of course, she’s going to be a top-10 player on Monday, but I’d suggest virtually everything will need to go right and there are plenty of reasons to suggest she’ll struggle to contain Sabalenka and her brutal hitting.
The Chinese star will look to her first serve to keep her competitive but that has yet to go above 56% in any round at this tournament, while across the opening month of the 2024 season, she’s put less than half her first serves into the service box.
And when she does miss that first delivery, you have to fear what Sabalenka will do to her second ball.
The reigning champion has won 66% of her second-serve return points at this tournament, while Zheng has won only 45% of those on her on her second delivery.
Plenty of other stats are in Sabalenka’s favour, notably the head-to-head.
OK, they’ve only played once but it resulted in a comfortable Sabalenka victory – at the US Open last September.
Sabalenka won 6-1 6-4 that day and didn’t face a break point on serve.
At this tournament, Sabalenka holds the advantage in terms of service holds (88% v 80%) and also return games won (57% v 41%).
While Zheng is up on first-serve points won (79% v 77%), those aforementioned second serve numbers are concerning for the Chinese, with another being her relative lack of success returning second serve – a figure of 52% points won for the season so far puts her outside the top 60 on tour. Yes, it’s early days but that’s not good.
So, what’s the bet?
Sabalenka should win but I can see why people wouldn’t steam into her at 1/5 or even 4/6 for a straight-sets victory.
As I highlighted in my semi-final preview, she’s been prone to getting tight in these big matches – she lost three Grand Slam semi-finals or finals last season which she arguably should have won – and so being a heavy favourite probably isn’t ideal for her.
Still, she was OK against Gauff, while the other thing to consider on this front is that Zheng is playing the biggest match of her life and so nerves will arguably be more of a factor with her.
The bet I like in a bid to get some value out of a victory for the favourite is to back her to WIN THE MATCH, SERVE FEWEST ACES AND FEWEST DOUBLE FAULTS.
Qinwen won the aces count in that US Open clash and so far at this event has served 0.71 per game to Sabalenka’s 0.51.
The double-faults margin is even wider for the past fortnight with Zheng at 0.51 per game and Sabalenka 0.21. Throw in the likelihood of her second serve getting pummelled and it’s not hard to see Zheng going for the lines a lot and, inevitably, making a few mistakes.
This bet takes Sabalenka’s price up to 13/10 using bet365’s Bet Builder tool, while Sky Bet have it listed under @SportingLife RequestABet Specials at 11/10.
The other bet I like is UNDER 8.5 GAMES IN THE FIRST SET at 9/5.
That landed in their previous meeting, while it’s delivered in seven of Sabalenka’s 11 matches so far in 2024.
Yes, she’s facing a player of good quality here, but those nerves will be jangling early on for Zheng, who started poorly in her semi-final, going down 2-0 early on against Dayana Yastremska. She also lost her opening service game to Anna Kalinskaya in the quarter-finals.
Finally, for those ready to oppose Sabalenka – and I am definitely not ruling out another big-match wobble from her – 12/1 (Sky Bet) about Zheng losing the first set and winning the match does have a bit of potential.
Sabalenka lost her Wimbledon semi-final and US Open final last season in this fashion when the occasion appeared to get to her somewhat.
If she gets tight approaching the finish line, this could suddenly look a big price.
However, at the end of the day, I’m loathe to go against Sabalenka. She’s played by far the best tennis at this tournament and as long as she continues in the same vein she’s been in, the title will surely be hers for another year.
Posted at 1005 GMT on 26/01/24
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