Avalanche vs Sabres Prediction

pickdawgz.com

29 October 2023

The Colorado Avalanche will play the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday afternoon at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. Colorado is coming off of their first loss of the season, while Buffalo has alternated wins and losses over their last five games.

Avalanche Preview

The Colorado Avalanche are 6-1-0 this season after they lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins by a score of 4-0 in their last game. Colorado allowed two goals in the first period, which would have been enough for Pittsburgh, as the Avs couldn’t find the back of the net. The Avalanche out shot Pittsburgh by a total of 31-29 and went 0-5 on the power play in the loss. Colorado had won their first six games of the season, with five of those wins coming by at least two goals. The Colorado Avalanche are scoring 3.86 goals per game and they are allowing 2.29 goals against per game, while going 23.1% on the power play and 93.1% on the penalty kill. Mikko Rantanen has led the Avalanche this year with five goals, seven assists, and 26 shots on goal. The projected starting goalie for Colorado is Alexandar Georgiev, who is 6-1-0 this season with a 2.31 goals against average and a .918 save percentage.

Sabres Preview

The Buffalo Sabres are 3-5-0 this year after they lost to the New Jersey Devils by a score of 5-4 in their last game. Buffalo led 1-0 and 2-1 in the first period, but they couldn’t hold either lead and ended up allowing the winning goal with about six minutes left in the game. The Sabres were out shot by a total of 39-27 and only won 39.3% of the face-offs in the loss. Buffalo’s three wins this year have came against Ottawa, New York (I), and Tampa Bay. The Buffalo Sabres are scoring 2.88 goals per game and they are allowing 3.38 goals against per game, while going 12% on the power play and 87.1% on the penalty kill. Rasmus Dahlin has led the Sabres this season with one goal, seven assists, and 19 shots on goal. The projected starting goalie for Buffalo is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who is 1-1-0 this year with a 4.78 goals against average and a .881 save percentage.

Buffalo Sabres Team Facts

The Sabres have won six of their last nine games as underdogs against Central Division opponents.
The favorites have covered the puck line in each of the last four games between the Avalanche and Sabres at KeyBank Center.
The Sabres have lost the second period in seven of their last eight games following a road loss.
The 'Over 2.5 Goals Period 1' market has hit in each of the last five games between the Avalanche and Sabres at KeyBank Center.

Colorado Avalanche Team Facts

The Avalanche have won each of their last eight Sunday day games.
The favorites have covered the puck line in each of the Avalanche's last four games at KeyBank Center.
The 'Over 1.5 Goals Period 1' market has hit in each of the Avalanche's last six games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
The Avalanche have won the third period in four of their last five games against the Sabres.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

Tage Thompson has scored a goal in four of the Sabres' last five day games at KeyBank Center.
Dylan Cozens has recorded at least one point in each of the Sabres' last six games.
Rasmus Dahlin has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Sabres' last eight games at KeyBank Center.
Casey Mittelstadt has the most multi-point games for the Sabres this season (3).

Colorado Avalanche Player Prop Facts

Mikko Rantanen has scored the last goal in each of the Avalanche's last three games against the Sabres at KeyBank Center.
Ryan Johansen has recorded at least one point in each of his last 15 appearances against the Sabres.
Mikko Rantanen has scored a goal in each of his last six appearances with the Avalanche as favorites against the Sabres.
Cale Makar has recorded at least one assist in each of his last seven appearances against Atlantic Division opponents.
Logan O'Connor ranks T1st in the league for Game Winning Goals (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Buffalo Sabres ranks 32nd in the league for opponent goals in Period 3 per game this season (1.75).
The Buffalo Sabres ranks T2nd in the league for opponent goals in Period 2 per game this season (0.50).
The Colorado Avalanche ranks 4th in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (93.10%).
The Colorado Avalanche ranks 6th in the league for goals per game this season (3.86).

Pick

Colorado finally suffered their first loss of the season in their last game, but they have been one of the best teams to start this season. Buffalo has been very inconsistent and they are only scoring 2.88 goals per game so far this year. The Avalanche have been very solid on defense, only allowing 2.29 goals against per game. Most of the metrics point to the Avalanche in this matchup and I think they will come out strong to try and avenge that loss on Friday night. Take Colorado -1.5 here.