Maple Leafs vs Sabres Prediction

pickdawgz.com

21 December 2023

The Toronto Maple Leafs will play the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday night at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. Toronto has alternated wins and losses over their last six games, while Buffalo has lost three of their last four games. Let’s take a look at the betting matchup and the Maple Leafs vs Sabres prediction.

Maple Leafs Preview

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 16-7-6 this year after they lost to the Rangers by a score of 5-2 in their last game. Toronto tied the game at two in the third period, but allowed the final three goals in the game for the loss. The Maple Leafs were out shot by a total of 36-33 and went 0-2 on the penalty kill in the game. Toronto defeated Pittsburgh by a score of 7-0 in the game prior to New York, but lost to Columbus in the game before that. The Maple Leafs are scoring 3.59 goals per game and they are allowing 3.24 goals against per game, while going 25.9% on the power play and 78.2% on the penalty kill. William Nylander has led the Maple Leafs with 15 goals, 26 assists, and 126 shots on goal. The projected starting goalie for Toronto is Ilya Samsonov, who is 5-1-5 this year with a 3.51 goals against average and a .878 save percentage.

Sabres Preview

The Buffalo Sabres are 13-17-3 this season after they lost to Columbus by a score of 9-4 in their last game. Buffalo led 1-0 in the first period, but they allowed the next seven goals in the loss. The Sabres were out shot by a total of 34-29 and went 1-3 on the power play in the game. Buffalo lost to Arizona by a score of 2-0 in the game before Columbus, but defeated Vegas by a score of 5-2 prior to that. The Sabres are scoring 2.85 goals per game and they are allowing 3.42 goals against per game, while going 14% on the power play and 80.6% on the penalty kill. Casey Mittelstadt has led Buffalo with eight goals, 20 assists, and 51 shots on goal. The projected starting goalie for Buffalo is Devon Levi, who is 6-4-2 this year with a 3.27 goals against average and a .892 save percentage.

Buffalo Sabres Team Facts

The Sabres have won each of their last two games as underdogs against the Maple Leafs.
The Sabres have failed to cover the puck line in 10 of their last 11 home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
The 'Over 1.5 Goals Period 2' market has hit in 17 of the Sabres' last 18 games following a home loss.
The Sabres have won the third period in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs following a loss.

Toronto Maple Leafs Team Facts

The Maple Leafs have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
The Maple Leafs have failed to cover the puck line in 18 of their last 19 games as favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
The Maple Leafs have won the second period in six of their last seven night games following a home loss.
The 'Over 1.5 Goals Period 2' market has hit in each of the Maple Leafs' last nine games.

Buffalo Sabres Player Prop Facts

Alex Tuch has scored at least one goal in each of the Sabres' last four games as underdogs against the Maple Leafs.
Alex Tuch has recorded at least one point in seven of his last eight appearances against Eastern Conference opponents.
Dylan Cozens has recorded an assist in five of his last six appearances against Atlantic Division opponents.
Alex Tuch has recorded two points against the Maple Leafs this season - equal-most against any opponent.

Toronto Maple Leafs Player Prop Facts

Auston Matthews has scored at least one goal in each of his last four appearances with the Maple Leafs as favorites.
Mitch Marner has recorded at least one point in each of his last eight appearances against the Sabres at KeyBank Center.
William Nylander has recorded at least one assist in eight of the Maple Leafs' last nine games.
Auston Matthews ranks 1st in the league for multi-goal games (9) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Buffalo Sabres rank 25th in the league for goals against per game this season (3.42).
The Buffalo Sabres rank 31st in the league for Period 1 goals allowed per game this season (1.27).
The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 2nd in the league for Period 3 goals scored per game this season (1.31).
The Toronto Maple Leafs rank 3rd in the league for Period 2 goals scored per game this season (1.24).

Maple Leafs vs Sabres Betting Prediction

Toronto comes into this game playing pretty inconsistently over their last six games, but they are 7-2-4 on the road this year. Buffalo is coming off of a really bad loss at home to Columbus and they are only 6-8-1 at home this season. The Sabres have lost three of their last four games, allowing 16 goals in the three losses. I can’t back this Buffalo team after how they looked in their last game, so give me Toronto -1.5 here.