Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

The Baltimore Orioles (20-9) and Kansas City Royals (7-23) meet Wednesday to continue a 3-game set. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Baltimore leads 1-0

The Orioles took Tuesday’s series opener 13-7 and have won 3 games  in a row. Since April 16, Baltimore is 12-2 and over that stretch have compiled a tidy 3.21 ERA.

Over roughly that same stretch, the Royals have struggled mightily. Since April 14, Kansas City is 3-14, including 0-7 at home.

Orioles at Royals projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Zack Greinke

Gibson (4-0, 3.93 ERA) is making his 7th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 34 1/3 IP.

• Since 2021, owns a 5.04 ERA on the road (vs. 3.63 ERA at home)
• Has held current Kansas City batters to an aggregate .486 OPS

Greinke (0-4, 6.1 ERA) is tabbed for his 7th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 31 IP.

• Current Baltimore batters own an aggregate .792 OPS against him
• Owns an 8.24 ERA, 1.47 WHIP over his last 4 starts

Orioles at Royals odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

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Orioles at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Royals 4

There is some analytics spread in the pitching here — early-season results vs. expected, based on support numbers — that favors Kansas City. Both in the starting and bullpen departments. Add in some Orioles-too-far-over-their-skis and Royals-underperforming angles, and Kansas City is the value side in this contest. … Just maybe not at this price. Especially in going against the grains of the recent play on both sides, we should want a better price here. PASS, unless the K.C. side gets to +140 or better.

Gibson having a .100 batting average on balls in play when runners are in scoring position. Greinke pitching around an overall .320 BABIP (.368 with RISP). The Kansas City bullpen working around a .328 BABIP, and the Baltimore ‘pen a .277 figure. Gibson being a road struggler at times and Baltimore owning a 7-2 record in 1-run games.

Along with a solid price on the Run Line, it all plays into a strong ROYALS +1.5 (-115) wager.

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Plenty of reasons to fall on either side of this figure. Or on it. PASS.

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