BarkBoard Staff Predictions: Fresno State vs UNLV
The Fresno State Bulldogs (6-1, 2-1) are coming off a bye week and now host a critical Mountain West game against the UNLV Rebels (6-1, 3-0). Both teams are already bowl eligible, are receiving Top 25 votes, and are seeking a victory Saturday to keep their standing in the conference championship hunt. The BarkBoard.com staff makes its predictions for the game here.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. PT at Valley Children's Stadium. The game will receive a nationally televised broadcast on FS1. Fresno State will be awaiting a gametime decision on its starting quarterback, whether Mikey Keene can return from injury or if Logan Fife gets his second start of the season.
UNLV enters with the conference's top scoring offense at 35.7 points scored per game - ranking No. 19 in the nation. Their exotic option running attack ranks No. 14 in the nation at 209.6 yards per game. However, the Rebels are also allowing 26.29 points per game - ranking No. 75.
Fresno State head coach Jeff Tedford said, "They’re a great team. In all three phases of the game, they do a great job. They play excellent defense, very well coached, run to the ball, tackle well. They are scoring a lot of points, I think they lead the league in scoring. And then their special teams are very solid as well. So they deserve to be where they are at 6-1."
Continue as the BarkBoard.com staff gives its predictions for how this game will go, what the final score will be, and who will be the player of the game.
Jackson Moore
UNLV feels a lot like Utah State, but swap out the Aggies’ high-powered passing attack for the Rebel’s explosive run game. Expect UNLV to be able to make big plays on the ground that Fresno State usually doesn’t give up and to put up more points than the ‘Dogs will usually allow. But UNLV also has deficiencies on defense that should open the door for the Bulldogs to match each score and do enough to win - regardless of who starts at quarterback.
The biggest concern here is if UNLV gets its passing game going on top of a difficult-to-stop running attack. If Rebel QB Jayden Maiava with his receivers Ricky White and Jacob De Jesus all get hot on top of the triple-option running game - it puts the ‘Dogs in danger.
Ultimately, Fresno State has had a bye week to prepare, they are much healthier, the roster is more experienced in playing in high-pressure conference games, they have home-field advantage, and the ‘Dogs are simply a better team than any of the six that UNLV has defeated so far. I think that all snowballs into enough for the Bulldogs to win in a game in a fashion similar to the previous win at Utah State - a higher-scoring game that is contested late into the fourth quarter and ends in a Fresno State win.
Fresno State 31, UNLV 27
Player of the Game: WR Erik Brooks
Brooks should be healthier off of the bye week - and while he was hobbled we’ve seen big moments from Jaelen Gill, Jalen Moss, Mac Dalena and most recently Josiah Freeman. UNLV won’t be able to dedicate extra attention to Brooks. And if Keene is back on the field, he’ll likely be looking for his go-to guy to get back into rhythm. I like some of the matchups Brooks should get against UNLV’s nickelbacks and safeties too.
Gabe Camarillo
Fresno State discovered its offense operates well behind Mikey Keene or Logan Fife as long as the running backs are producing. A lot of that involved OL play, which wasn’t an issue against a subpar Utah State pass rush.
While the Rebels’ pass rush is a bit better, it’s not miles better. This is a UNLV defense missing its best player (Jerrae Williams) and survives on forcing turnovers. Take those takeaways away, and the UNLV defense is among the worst in the nation.
If Keene (or Fife) avoid interceptions, the Bulldogs should outscore the Rebels — but it might turn into a track meet like what we saw in Utah if Fresno State’s defense is still banged up and inconsistent
Fresno State 34, UNLV 27
Player of the Game: WR Erik Brooks
Remember how I said UNLV’s best defender is out? He plays slot corner, and his backup has performed so-so in pass coverage since. Expect a much healthier Brooks to take advantage.
Lorenzo J. Reyna
Red Wave...you have your first Mountain West Conference heavyweight battle in the 559. And this is a battle worth attending.
Make no mistake about it, it's not by accident that the Rebels stand at 6-1. The previous regime under Marcus Arroyo stockpiled on talent and had a trajectory each season. Now, a veteran head coach in Barry Odom, who won before at Missouri, has helped capitalize on what Arroyo bequeathed.
UNLV now has top-half units in the MWC for both defense (sixth) and offense (second). But it's the latter that's had quite the spark with fast-rising coordinator Brennan Marion at the controls.
The Rebs have averaged the most points per game in the MWC. With his unique "Go-Go" offense featuring exotic two-back formations with the running back, Marion has helped produce five different running options who average between 4.4 to 5.6 yards per carry. That includes dual-threat passer Jayden Maiava, who is nearing 2,000 total yards running and throwing.
By air, Maiava has two explosive duos making their case for the title of best WR duo in the conference in Ricky White and Jacob De Jesus. Both Rebs have caught past 30 passes and are averaging more than 10.7 yards per catch.
But, with a defense still allowing an average of 406 yards per game and 26.3 PPG, this bodes well for Fresno State to score a lot of points. And FS is expected to be strengthened with potentially Mikey Keene, Malik Sherrod and Elijah Gillam all healthy for this one. Don't be shocked if this contest becomes a shootout.
However, here's why I'm siding with Fresno State: This UNLV team is officially experiencing its most marquee conference road matchup in a while. Fresno State, under Jeff Tedford, are used to these types of games. Experience factor for these matchups comes into play.
Fresno State 38, UNLV 34
Player of the Game: WR Erik Brooks
With the Bulldogs facing the third-worst pass defense in the MW, I've got a feeling it's going to come down to WR play in the very end. Who better than the most experienced WR on this team to deliver the final blows? Brooks erupted for a 19 yard average against Utah State and now gets a defense allowing more than 277 yards through the air.
X-Factor: Run defense -- While Marion is a former NFL WR, his system is deadly when the ground game gets going. Fresno State can take cues from the Michigan game on how to slow down this high-powered attack. But if UNLV gets going on the ground, a shootout is imminent. Eye discipline is huge for this one.
Lucio Ourique
Fresno State gets healthy after a bye week. The Bulldog offense gets things rolling early, forcing a change in how UNLV game planned for the Bulldogs by playing from behind. The defense does their job containing UNLV's rushing attack and forces a couple of turnovers. The Bulldogs passing game comes out firing and throws for over 350 yards.
Fresno State 38, UNLV 21
Player of the Game: WR Erik Brooks
Erik Brooks comes into this healthier than he's been in quite some time. Brooks gets back to where he left off early on in the season. Look for Brooks to catch the bulk of the Bulldogs passing yards.
Oddsmakers
Fresno State enters Friday's game as a 9.5-point favorite. The over/under total score line is set at 56.5 points, according to Caesars Sportsbook. That makes for a projected score of about 33-24 in favor of the Bulldogs.
COLLEGE GAMEDAY
The College GameDay Panel picks a 2-2 split for tonight’s Fresno State vs UNLV matchup! Who’s ready?!?!? #FresnoState#GoDogspic.twitter.com/045YwR3znd
— BarkBoard.com (@BarkBoard) October 28, 2023
The ESPN College Game Day panel picked Saturday's game with 2 selections for Fresno State and 2 for UNLV.
