College Football Week 7 Player Props Primer
Erik Brooks, WR, Fresno State at Utah State - Under 36.5 Receiving Yards (Friday Night)
Two weeks ago Erik Brooks caught two-of-three targets for 37 yards with a costly fumble, while Ohio State/BC transfer WR Jaelen Gill popped off catching 8-of-9 passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns. Brooks subsequently lost his starting slot job, and last week to and responded by running 18 routes and catching two of his five targets for 9 yards with an unacceptable two drops. Their ascending QB Mikey Keene is injured and will not play, so Brooks is now working with backup QB Logan Fife who is a far cry from the UCF transfer Keene that led victories over Purdue and Arizona State.
I’m concerned with how Brooks responded to being benched in favor of Gill and how he is trending downwards. Would YOU trust Brooks in an important conference game, with an unproven backup QB, and a superior slot-option in Gill seemingly displacing him in the lineup after Brooks collapsed last week with 2 drops post-benching? Not me, i’m playing the UNDER 36.5 Receiving Yards on Brooks.
Robert Briggs, RB, Utah State vs. Fresno - Under 39.5 Rushing Yards (Friday Night)
As mentioned in the Brooks play, you cannot say enough about the job Fresno HC Jeff Tedford has done this year replacing NFL caliber talents Jake Haener, Jalen Moreno-Cropper and Nikko Remigio from an offense that returned just 4 starters and 43% of their production (112th in FBS) from last year’s Mountain West Championship team. On the defensive side of the ball though, they return seven starters and are smothering far superior opponents than Utah State (to the tune of 99 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per rush attempt.
So right out of the gate, we’ve got the recipe for a rushing Under. On the other side however, Briggs ripped off 80 rushing yards on 19 carries last game against Colorado State, which seemingly justifies his 39.5 rushing yards line. But Utah State gouged CSU for 290 yards on 6.3 YPC, a drastic outlier for a team that is known for their pass-heavy tendencies (8.5 yards per attempt = 32nd). Additionally, most of the damage was done by Davon Booth, who rushed 14 times for 141 yards, 2 TDs and a ridiculous 10.1 YPC, while Briggs averaged a pedestrian 4.2 YPC. The previous game against UConn, Booth ran for 16 yards on six totes, while Briggs rushed eight times for 17 yards. Woof.
Briggs Under 39.5 Rushing Yards is a certifiable cornerstone play for the Friday slate against the unassailable Fresno State defensive front.
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Corey Kiner, RB, Cincinnati vs. Iowa State - Under 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
I have to admit something, I hate taking Overs on touchdown props, be it for RBs or WRs. They’re agonizingly fleeting and unpredictable unless the player in question is a Bijan Robinson-level talent in a nuclear offense. Suffice to say, Cincinnati’s offense is far from potent, averaging just 21 points per game (101st), 5.5 yards per play (72nd) and 1.9 points per drive (85th). Kiner handled 10-of-21 RB carries (46.5%) Week 4 against Oklahoma, and 19-of-33 against A soft BYU run D that ranks 65th in rushing performance. Also of note are the rush heavy tendencies of dual-threat QB Emory Jones, who has logged 14, 15 and 20 carries over his last three games.
This week, they face a stout Iowa State defense that ranks 24th in EPA/Play while allowing 1.73 points per drive (35th) and 20th in overall rushing performance according to CFB Winning Edge’s analytics. The Cyclones also rank 85th in pace of play and crucially have allowed a paltry 4 rushing touchdowns through six games this season. Kiner is a non-factor in the receiving game (8 recs/51 yards/0 TD) and has accrued just two rushing touchdowns in 5 games, with their TDs coming against Miami (OH) in Week 3 and Pitt in Week 2. Too many signs are pointing down here, so i’m strongly recommending Kiner’s Under 0.5 TDs.
Jayden McGowan, WR, Vanderbilt vs. Georgia - Under 26.5 Receiving Yards
A slot receiver and kick returner by trade, McGowan has seen his passing game usage wilt after catching 0-of-5 targets with a drop against Kentucky in Week 4. In the two games since then he’s received just three targets for 12 yards in the pass game while being removed from the starting lineup due to his inability to convert his opportunities. Instead, he is playing more of a hybrid role, rushing the ball five times for 49 yards in his last two games to take advantage of his shiftiness that makes him an effective kick returner, and hides his inconsistency when catching the ball.
This week the Commodores face Georgia who is leading the nation with 4.9 yards per pass allowed and is 2nd in overall pass defense. With McGowan relegated to a gadget-type role in recent weeks, i’m backing his Under 26.5 Receiving Yards Prop.
