Bayern Munich vs. PSG picks and odds: Fade Paris without Kylian Mbappe in the Champions League

The Champions League is back in a big way when Bayern Munich takes on PSG this Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Both teams currently lead their respective domestic leagues but PSG will be without Kylian Mbappe as the French superstar remains sidelined with a thigh injury. We’re backing Bayern to win and are expecting Leroy Sane to record a shot on target.

Champions League odds as of 12:22 p.m. ET on 02/12/2023.

Bayern Munich vs. PSG picks

Best Bet: Bayern Munich draw no bet (-118)

Bayern had a tough run of form in their return from the international break, drawing four straight Bundesliga games. But since then they’ve rattled off three-straight wins and have outscored opponents 11 to 2 in those contests.

We think the Bavarians have found their form and are bullish on them securing a win in Paris this week. That said, we’re taking a conservative approach by eliminating the possibility of a tie and are backing the Reds to win, draw no bet.

A lot of that has to do with PSG’s recent woes.

The Parisians have lost two straight games by a combined score of 5-2, most recently falling 3-1 to Monaco in Ligue 1 on February 11. They’re also going to be without Mbappe, who is an integral part of Christophe Galtier’s side.

PSG still has Lionel Messi and Neymar, so this shouldn’t be a walk in the park for Bayern. However, FCB were the only team to win all six of their games in the Champions League this season and their plus-16 goal differential is the best mark in the competition.

Key stat: Bayern have won four of their last five Champions League matches against PSG.

Quick picks

Bayern Munich over 1.5 goals (-109): With Bayern running hot and PSG slumping, it makes sense to back the Bavarian’s goal line in this game.

FCB have scored two-plus goals in four of their seven fixtures since returning from the international break including each of their past three matches.

PSG, meanwhile, have conceded a pair of goals in two straight games and in three of their last five contests against Bayern.

Sane over 0.5 SOT (-125): Sane has been rounding into form for Bayern and has recorded a shot on target in three of his past four games, scoring twice.

The German winger also recorded a shot in three of his four Champions League appearances earlier this season, scoring four goals in those contests.

Expect him to be heavily involved in Munich’s attack.