Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich picks and odds: Expect Bayern to put up a fight in Champions League
Manchester City hold a 3-0 aggregate lead over Bayern Munich and will advance to the semifinals if they can avoid disaster.
The pregame narrative: Things aren’t looking good for the reigning Bundesliga champions, but we’re confident Bayern will hit their offensive stride on Wednesday. It might not be enough to advance but it should be enough to cash these two bets.
Champions League odds as of 3:38 p.m. ET on 04/18/2023.
Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich picks
Best Bet: Bayern Munich over 1.5 goals (+104)
It might seem unpalpable to back a team that just got shut out to score twice.
But last week’s result was a deviation from the mean, not the new normal. Bayern had scored two or more goals in all but one of their prior eight Champions League games this season, including each of their four at Allianz Arena.
In fact, the Bavarians are averaging 2.75 goals per game in the UCL as the home side. They also probably deserved more than a goose egg against City last week. Bayern held 56% possession and generated 0.9 expected goals according to FBref.
With all that said, we don’t want to discount how dominant Manchester City has been this year.
The team hasn’t allowed two goals in any Champions League game and is averaging 0.93 goals against in their 30 Premier League fixtures. But we’re happy to back a desperate home team that is going to have to throw everything at the wall in order to advance.
Key stat: Munich have scored two-plus goals in 13 of their 18 home games across all competitions.
Quick picks
Bayern to win or tie + Sane over 0.5 SOT (+120): We think Bayern is going to score two-plus goals and that should be more than enough for the Bavarians to at least earn a draw on Thursday.
They were 8-0-0 prior to last week’s matchup against City and haven’t lost a single game at home all season in the Bundesliga.
Sane is a solid bet to record at least one shot on target, too. He’s scored four goals in seven Champions League starts this season and came awfully close to adding an eighth last week.
He led all players with four shots on target last Tuesday.
