Baylor vs Iowa State Odds, Picks, Predictions

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09 March 2023

Baylor vs Iowa State Odds, Picks, Predictions

Iowa State dusted Baylor in their previous meetings this season, but our college basketball picks are prepared to toss those results. Find out why this matchup favors the Bears in a way books aren't anticipating.

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Revenge will be on the Baylor Bears’ minds when they meet the Iowa State Cyclones in this Big 12 Tournament matchup. The pair squared off just six days ago, and the Cyclones handled the Bears relatively easily.

Weird would be one way to describe Iowa State’s season. It opened Big 12 play with four straight wins, including this Baylor team and Texas Tech. Then a loss to Kansas preceded a midseason slide that would see the Cyclones lose four of its next six games. So now they come to the Big 12 tournament needing a few wins to feel good about making the NCAA Tournament.

At times this year, Baylor has done things that make you think it could win it all, and at others has done little to inspire confidence.

What’s the Best Bet for Thursday’s game? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Baylor vs. Iowa State on March 9.

Baylor vs Iowa State best odds

Baylor vs Iowa State picks and predictions

You’re inclined to wonder if Iowa State is Baylor’s kryptonite. After all, it did handle the Bears in both matchups, winning each by double-digits. So, that has to factor into the handicap here.

The first matchup, though, is primarily a moot data point. These two teams are significantly different now than they were then. The Bears, especially, are healthier and improved. When you throw out that game, you’re left with what happened last Saturday, where Iowa State dispatched Baylor 73 to 58.

That’s something I’m ready to write off, too. It may seem strange, but there are a few reasons why: Baylor was off. The differentials of shooting were so stark that it’s hard to say it’s sustainable even a game later. Iowa State shot an eFG of over 60%. That’s the second-highest it’s posted in Big 12 play all season. It’s things like that I’m banking on changing here, and I’m rolling with Baylor to cover this number as my Best Bet.

My projections have the Bears by 6, but my handicap of the X and Os aspect of the game says they could make things even more comfortable. While I respect Iowa State Head Coach TJ Otzelberger, I think there’s a significant gap in coaching acumen. He’s going head-to-head with likely Hall of Famer Scott Drew. The numbers tell us that, contrary to popular belief, it’s not difficult to beat a team thrice. However, that task is difficult when you’re going up against a coach with much experience over you, who likely has more talent than you and is in a revenge spot.

It’s not like Baylor doesn’t have advantages here. It didn’t shoot well the last time these two played, but it can get into advantageous scoring positions. The focus for Baylor in this should be getting in transition. It’s where its superior talent and athleticism can shine. Teams have routinely hurt Iowa State here as it allows scores on nearly 70% of transition opportunities. I trust that Jalen Bridges and Adam Flagler can exploit Iowa State here —that this will be a focus in this matchup for Drew.

There’s also the whole aspect of the fouling problem for Iowa State — it does a lot of it. The Cyclones’ 19 fouls per game are easily the most in the Big 12. Baylor draws a ton of fouls. It has a Top-30 free throw rate nationally, which should be a focus here. The Bears didn’t do enough in the first two meetings to get to the line. I’m expecting that to change.

Back the third time being the charm for Baylor in what could be a potential blow-out spot.

My best bet: Baylor -3.5 (-110 at bet365)

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Baylor vs Iowa State spread analysis

This comes down to coaching for me. It’s what pushed things over the edge to make Baylor covering my Best Bet. The Bears are more talented than Iowa State. No matter what quantifiable metric you want to look at, you’ll see that that’s the case. Its guards, Adam Flagler and Keyonte George, are just two talents Iowa State can’t match. But, as it is so often in March, I expect Baylor’s guard play to be the difference.

One last parting shot to consider before you hit the wager on this. For some coaches, revenge spots are an excellent backing; for some, it’s inconsequential. It’s not a direct comparison, but it’s worth noting that Scott Drew has been quite impressive after losses. Since 2020, Baylor and Scott Drew have been a remarkable 12-4 after taking an L, which gives you even more confidence in them performing well here.

Baylor vs Iowa State Over/Under analysis

I’m placing a unit on the Over of 134 here at DraftKings. It’s directly correlated to my handicap in this game. There are not many situations I can envision Baylor covering this spread in a slowed-down game. It has to speed it up and let its superior talent make plays in the open court. Because I believe it will do that, I also think you’ll see a higher-scoring game. My projections agree as well, placing the total at right around 139.

Some notable trends point to the Over for Baylor. Over its last 26 games against a team with a winning record, 19 of those games have gone Over. In addition, the Over is 5-1 in its last six games following a straight-up loss like the one it’s coming off of.