Houston vs Baylor prediction: College basketball odds, picks

Houston finally regained sole possession of first place in the Big 12 standings with a big home win over Iowa State on Monday, winning by eight despite a 9-for-17 (53%) 3-point shooting barrage from the Cyclones.

The Cougars travel to Waco on Saturday, which is always a tough place to play. 

And it might get tougher, considering Baylor’s in a bounce-back spot after a road loss against BYU. 

However, I don’t love this matchup for the Bears.

(Noon ET, CBS)

Houston’s aggressive ball-screen blitzing and rim denial defense is the nation’s best, and the Cougars will stand firm against Baylor’s relentless ball-screen attack spearheaded by the elite backcourt of Ja’Kobe Watler and RayJ Dennis. 

However, the way to beat Kelvin Sampson’s defense is through elite spacing and shot-making. Because the Cougars are so aggressive on the ball, it leaves them vulnerable to weak-side shooters – if you double the ball-handler, the rest of the defense has to scramble. 

In theory, Baylor can exploit that vulnerability. The Bears spread the floor wide and boast no shortage of sharpshooters, explaining their nation-leading 40% 3-point shooting clip.

However, no team can shoot over 40% from deep for an entire 30-something-game season. Baylor shot 47% from 3 in non-conference, but regression hit hard in Big 12 play, as the Bears are shooting only 34% across 13 games. 

Shooting variance is inherent in college hoops, but I worry about Baylor’s underlying shot-taking metrics. Among Big 12 teams during league games, the Bears rank ninth in ShotQuality’s Spacing metric and 12th in Open 3 Rate. 

The Bears aren’t creating open shots through off-ball player movement, and they likely won’t create any on-ball-screen offense against Houston’s dominant on-ball defense. 

I’m betting the Bears offense struggles on Saturday.

Even worse, Baylor’s best shooter, sixth-man Langston Love, is dealing with a leg injury. He returned to action against BYU but only played 13 minutes, and his 49% 3-point shooting prowess would be sorely missed against the Coogs. 

Meanwhile, Baylor’s defense has regressed significantly in 2024. Scott Drew rode his no-middle defensive scheme to a National Championship, with the defenders pushing ball-handlers toward the sidelines and baselines while overhelping in the middle of the court, thus denying paint buckets. 

But the Bears’ backcourt defense is atrocious. Walter’s a decent defender, but Dennis, Love, and Jayden Nunn are borderline turnstiles as on-ball defenders. 

Thus, Baylor can’t execute the no-middle at the point of attack, so opponents have murdered the Bears with on-ball dribble penetration and ball-screen creation.

Houston is a pick-and-roll heavy offense, leaning heavily on the versatile Jamal Shead. Baylor allows over .84 PPP against pick-and-roll ball handlers (24th percentile), and I’m betting Shead hunts plus matchups and exploits them aggressively. 

Ultimately, I don’t like the schematic matchup for Baylor. 

And even if the Bears are at home, they’ve been put through the wringer with travel this week, playing in Morgantown, West Virginia, on Saturday and Provo, Utah, on Tuesday before flying back to Waco, Texas, for Saturday’s matchup. Combined, that’s around a 3,000-mile trip. 

Meanwhile, Houston has a rest advantage, having played on Big Monday this week. 

I’m betting the fresher Cougars ride their matchup advantages to a huge road win and cover on Saturday.