Houston vs Baylor Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

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24 February 2024

Houston vs Baylor Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

Houston's looking to fend off challengers for its Big 12 title, but Baylor's coming for the crown. See which of these predators our college basketball picks are backing when they face off on Saturday.

The second-ranked Houston Cougars are closing in on a Big 12 regular season crown. The 11th-ranked Baylor Bears would like to supply some turbulence to that landing. Baylor hosts Houston on Saturday afternoon in a game that could alter the conference landscape. The Cougars are 10-3 in the Big 12, just a game up on Iowa State, and two up on Kansas, Texas Tech and these Bears.

Winners of four straight and nine of its last 10, Houston is a slight 2-point road favorite in the college basketball odds.

Can the Bears muck up an already jammed leaderboard? Check out my Houston vs. Baylor college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday, February 24, complete with a best bet.

Houston vs Baylor best odds

Houston vs Baylor picks and predictions

The Houston Cougars are KenPom’s top-ranked team, including first in scoring defense, holding teams to a paltry 55.3 points per game, limiting opponents to an NCAA-best 37.4% shooting from the field, and just 29.6% from 3-point range (29.6%). Houston’s latest triumph was a 73-65 clampdown of the sixth-ranked Iowa State Cyclones in a battle of the Top 2 teams in the Big 12. A team that ranks fourth in Big 12 scoring at 78.2 points per game, Iowa State was held to 65 points or less for just the fourth time this season — two of those by the Cougars. Houston got into the Cyclones defensively, forcing 16 turnovers that it converted into 20 points — a necessary component to victory, offsetting Iowa State’s 9-for-17 mark from downtown, as well as pulling down 13 offensive rebounds.

Baylor presents an even more potent offensive attack, a team that averages 82.6 points per game, second in the Big 12 and 22nd in college hoops.

Its shooting splits are lethal, inside the Top 15 in field goal shooting at 49.3%, while earning Top-5 honors for a crisp 39.6% shooting from beyond the arc. However, the Bears were outgunned last time out against no. 25 BYU, who bounced the visitors 78-71. Baylor could only muster a 5-for-20 effort from distance, a 25% clip, while BYU enjoyed a +27 advantage in that category. The Bears also struggled defending the defensive boards, as BYU pulled down 16 offensive rebounds — a +9 advantage — which helped them take 15 more field goals in this sturdy upset. This will be the first and only meeting between these teams this season, and the first as conference opponents since 1996. Baylor does, however, have a crucial head-to-head win over Houston in their last meeting in 2021, knocking Houston off in the Final Four en route to the national title.

While the Bears will be amped up playing at Foster Pavillion, where they’ve lost just once, look for the Cougars’ defense to travel for this important test, and take care of business.

My best bet: Houston moneyline (-140 at bet365)

Houston vs Baylor same-game parlay

Houston moneylineJa’Kobe Walter Under 1.5 threes made

Jamal Shead Over 15.5 points

Baylor’s leading scorer and leader in 3-point makes, Ja’Kobe Walter has struggled finding his shooting stroke of late. The freshman guard went 0-for-3 from distance in the Bears’ loss to BYU, finishing with 13 points in 31 minutes of work. It’s now the fifth time in the last seven games Walter has hit a single 3-pointer or less for the Bears. A look deeper into the numbers shows he has failed to cross his 1.5 line in four of his last five against ranked Big 12 schools. With Houston’s ability to defend the arc, Walter should struggle finding the range Saturday.

Let’s put a wrap on this three-legged SGP with the Cougars’ second-leading scorer Jamal Shead.

The senior guard is coming off a 26-point effort last game against ISU, his second-highest point total this season. Following that game, oddsmakers have been very generous with Shead’s 15.5-point scoring line. He’s crossed that line in four straight and in eight of the last 10, cracking the 20-point plateau on four occasions.

Expect Shead to play a prominent role for the Bears and your betting card.

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Houston vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis

Save for a few sparse 1.5 to 2.0 lines floating around, the spread number has been pretty consistent at 2.5 points. Baylor sits inside the Top 20 schools with a successful spread record, going 15-8-2 ATS on the year, including a 1-5-1 ATS record over the last five. Houston is even at 12-12-2 ATS, though it has gone 3-1-1 ATS over its last five games. As for the total, the numbers have hit as high as 137.5 points, with a low of 134.5 with plenty of action spread in between. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with Houston’s Over record sitting at a pedestrian 11-15-0 mark.

Baylor has seen the Over cash in 13 of its 25 games this season.

Houston vs Baylor betting trend to know

Thirteen of Baylor's last 14 games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 138+ points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. Baylor.

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