Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Italian Open preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: DS Automobiles Italian Open

3pts e.w. Nicolai Hojgaard a 20/1 (bet365, BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

3pts e.w. Adrian Meronk at 22/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Adri Arnaus at 60/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Romain Langasque at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

The DP World Tour has spread its wings this year, breaking new ground in Japan and returning to Korea after a decade away, but now it's time to land in Europe – almost six months to the day since Jordan Smith dominated the Portugal Masters and Ryder Cup chat began to really take off.

Fuelled by post-Wentworth wins for Robert MacIntyre, Guido Migliozzi, Adrian Otaegui, Yannik Paul and then Smith himself, many of us wondered who would kick on into the world's top 50 perhaps, and from there at least have the opportunity to make Luke Donald's side.

Instead, what we've seen is more contenders emerge: Adrian Meronk, Antoine Rozner, Victor Perez and Thorbjorn Olesen have 'joined the chat', as the content team at Ryder Cup Europe would probably put it. So has Pablo Larrazabal following his performance at the weekend and naming the 12 has suddenly become very difficult.

Larrazabal is the only one of these names who isn't in the Italian Open at Marco Simone, which as you'll know is where the Ryder Cup is taking place. Marco Simone is one of those modern, built-for-purpose courses whose raison d'etre is Ryder Cup. That's partly why Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick and more were here in September, the second of three tournaments in Rome before the main event arrives in September.

Some will say that the absence of McIlroy, Fitzpatrick and the remaining five who appear certain to play in it is a bad thing, symptomatic of a second-grade circuit whose purpose is singular: to filter players to the PGA Tour. Curiously though, their absence might actually be the reason this tournament holds genuine significance where the Ryder Cup is concerned.

Why? Because it seems highly likely that a European wins. Doing so five months before a Ryder Cup held at the same course would make for a compelling piece of evidence in the case for inclusion. If it happened to be MacIntyre or NICOLAI HOJGAARD, the two champions at Marco Simone so far, such a case would be cast-iron.

MacIntyre was our selection last week when leading through 54 holes in Korea. His final round started disastrously and didn't get a lot better, meaning he's given up two good chances in his last three starts. The flip side is that he's produced three top-10s in succession for just the second time in his DP World Tour career, consistency which may count for a lot over the coming months.

At a more granular level, it's arguably what he lacks. The Scot made another double-bogey early in that tournament, adding to the two he produced in Japan, and his mistakes are all too often both significant and cumulative. In some way this helps bolster his case because he's a prolific birdie-maker and will be a fantastic asset to the team, but as far as this tournament goes it's why I can't stomach the same price or shorter in a better field.

MacIntye's first title defence may sharpen focus just as it may prove a stumbling block, but my main negative would be how he struck his irons last weekend. To drive it as well as he did, produce a personal highlights reel of sublime chips and pitches, putt really well and not really look like winning on Sunday tells you how poor his approach play was at times.

By contrast it's been a consistent part of an excellent year for HOJGAARD, who for my money should be clear favourite and is backed accordingly.

The more powerful of the twins, I was surprised to see his brother's name instead top the opening show. Rasmus still edges Nicolai in titles won, but right now he comes in off a missed cut and reiterated in Korea that his fitness is not yet at 100% following two months away prior to that event and the ISPS Handa Championship in Japan.

When you consider that Nicolai both won here in 2021, beating Fleetwood, and put up a good defence when grouped with McIlroy early on last year, he really ought to be considered the one to beat – and that's before we get to the strength of his recent form together with my personal belief that he's the most promising European yet to earn a PGA Tour card.

Nicolai has Special Temporary Membership out there at the moment, which means he can accept as many sponsor invites as come his way, and he's been making the most of them with 28th in Texas, 32nd in the Zurich Classic and 33rd in Mexico, all since second place behind Matt Wallace in the Dominican Republic.

Even the latter event, held opposite the Match Play, represents really strong form at this level, and I love how he's played ever since the beginning of the DP World Tour season. Hojgaard has four top-10s, hasn't missed a cut, and has entered each and every weekend close enough to the leaders to at least get himself in the mix for place money.

Twice in his last seven measured starts he's been the best player in the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green terms and his putting has generally been good over in the US, including when carrying Olesen in the pairs event at TPC Louisiana, almost making a hole-in-one at a par-four along the way.

Last week that putter let him down slightly hence a mid-pack finish following a good start to the Mexico Open, and while there'd have to be a bit of a worry over the travel factor, he's only recently turned 22. Just as it didn't stop Lucas Herbert in Japan, I can't see as it'll be much of an excuse providing his journey runs a little smoother than Herbert's did.

My final point would be that Hojgaard's Italian Open title defence saw him hit the ball just about as well as he had when winning only for his short-game to struggle. That was a hint that he might turn up at the same courses and produce time and again, something which was further substantiated when he contended at Al Hamra earlier this year, the scene of his second DP World Tour win.

Both courses along with Albatross in Prague and Dom Pedro in Portugal are part of a set which ask the same questions, first among them being are you happy hitting driver all day long? Clearly, that's Hojgaard's main weapon and in both previous starts at Marco Simone we've seen him put it to use, hitting lines that others cannot.

If that club is firing and the putter behaves itself, he will prove the one they all have to beat.

Market leaders in Pole position

There are six players vying for favouritism and cases can be made for each of them, with Rasmus the only one I had no interest in whatsoever.

Victor Perez contended here in September and has since won a Rolex Series title to make it three on the DP World Tour, while Smith has led the field in greens hit for three successive tournaments, an impressive feat and one that suggests he'll contend again soon.

Smith was hardest to omit but the extra firepower of ADRIAN MERONK is preferred this time.

Like Hojgaard (insofar as anyone can be) he's a supremely long hitter who has form across that collection of courses I mentioned earlier. Meronk was in the mix on his second Czech Masters start, just as he'd been on his first and only appearance in the Portugal Masters, and has three top-sixes in four at Al Hamra.

The latter in particular has tied in nicely with Marco Simone right from the first time each of them became part of the schedule, a connection emphasised by Hojgaard but supported by the likes of Johannes Veerman, Scott Jamieson, Masahiro Kawamura, Francesco Laporta, Larrazabal and others.

Meronk of course doesn't need to prove he can score at Marco Simone having chased home Hojgaard in the 2021 Italian Open, especially as last year's missed cut came during a run of 10 mediocre starts which followed his Irish Open win. Like many before him, Meronk struggled with his newfound status throughout summer and autumn.

Back on track in Dubai, he's added the Australian Open to the Irish Open and an Italian Open would be quite the hat-trick, one he appears primed for having finished 21st without making much in last week's event in Korea.

That was Meronk's first DP World Tour start since February, having been over to compete on the PGA Tour where he rallied superbly to make the cut at Riviera, finished 14th at the Honda, finished T2 in his Match Play group and even showed up well early on in the Masters before an understandable missed cut on his first look at Augusta.

Korea was his first start since so a quiet Thursday is excusable and he played really well throughout the middle of the tournament, shooting 68 in round two and 70 in round three to climb into contention, sitting two off MacIntyre's lead entering the final round.

A couple of poor approaches at par-threes cost him dearly, but Meronk's iron play in general was improved and, as you'd expect, he continued to boss things off the tee. The strokes-gained numbers from Korea are again indicative rather than gospel but the fact he hit a high proportion of greens supports an uptick in approach stats, which is just what I'd hoped to see.

At 63rd in the world he's the highest-ranked player in this field and, with a week's worth of competition behind him, he should be a massive player back at this level. It's one I expect he'll be leaving behind next year as he's strongly fancied to pick up a PGA Tour card via the Race to Dubai, perhaps with a Ryder Cup debut along the way.

I really would encourage readers to look long and hard at this big six at the front of the betting. Each of them has the right game for the course and my view is they're further clear of the remainder, headed by Olesen, Rozner and Paul, than the betting suggests. Two of the six could easily have been three or four.

History repeated?

Money for Guido Migliozzi makes sense after his surge through the pack, as does that which has come for Marcus Helligkilde who impressed with his attitude as he emerged as Larrazabal's main rival. The Dane is a really exciting player and a lucrative spring could well be coming up, but I don't think he's much of a price in this field and the same goes for a back-to-form Migliozzi.

Instead, I'll take a chance on ADRI ARNAUS, who just two starts ago was joint-favourite with Smith for an event in South Africa.

That was based on his runner-up finish a week earlier and it's right that he's since fallen down the betting as he's missed his last two cuts, but I can forgive a slow start days after strong finish to take second, after which he was the de facto defending champion in Japan at a course which wouldn't have suited him at all.

Marco Simone does, on the other hand, and he showed as much when in the mix here in 2021, lying second at halfway. Last year he promised to build on that when making a fast start to sit fourth after the opening round, only to throw in a shocker and narrowly fail to make the weekend.

Arnaus's suitability can also be traced through correlating courses. The first time we saw him right in the mix for a DP World Tour title was at Albatross when giving best to Thomas Pieters in the end. Later he was eighth in the Portugal Masters having contended, and as well as having won at Al Hamra on the Challenge Tour, he's been ninth and sixth there on this one.

His record elsewhere in Italy is equally encouraging, as he was twice a winner here on the Alps Tour and then went on to contend for the Italian Open at Chervo in 2020, an event he could so easily have won. In the end he'd have to wait another 18 months before capturing his first DP World Tour title, which he did exactly one year ago this week.

Since then Arnaus has failed to establish himself as a viable Ryder Cup option in quite the same way as some of those mentioned, but from November onward he's contended in the DP World Tour Championship, the Dubai Desert Classic, the Ras al Khaimah Championship, and the SDC Championship just six weeks ago.

That's four chances to win in his last nine starts and if you need convincing of his volatility, of how little we learn about him from a couple of missed cuts, see his form at this time last year: 2-MC-MC-1. Twelve months on and he's repeated the first three, so why not the set at a course which allows him to be as aggressive as he wants.

Someone has to Romain faithful...

His compatriot Alejandro del Rey is an in-form big-hitter who topped the par-five stats on his latest start, when finishing 17th behind Nick Bachem. Both these rookies are the right kind of player for the course and the same is probably true of Calum Hill, who shot rounds of 65 and 66 on his sole visit and was a contender two weeks ago.

They're respected along with Marcel Schneider, who has Albatross, Dom Pedro and Al Hamra form but might not quite be at the very top of his game. German golf is flying and he could be the next cab off the rank in the coming months, but a top-20 finish might be the way to play him at this course given a lack of firepower.

I will instead fall back into the ROMAIN LANGASQUE trap, a player I and seemingly just a handful of others still believe capable of emerging as one of the better ones on this tour.

Langasque is without question best suited to courses where he has to hit driver a lot, like Celtic Manor where he secured his breakthrough win and somewhere like the Emirates in Dubai where he's always played well. It's why I think he should be effective at Marco Simone, even if he's yet to show it.

Crucially, he did drive the ball well on both previous visits only to struggle with his approaches. That may speak to some sort of issue with the demands of the layout, but he'd been hitting his irons really badly in the run-up to each of them, his form in 2021 particularly poor and not that much better last September.

He returns having made nine out of 11 cuts this season, the two exceptions all to do with the putter, and it's just three starts since he was ninth behind Bachem at a driver-all-the-way course where he couldn't quite putt well enough to stay in the mix at the weekend.

Tougher conditions here will help and his putter has been stable lately, but what I like most is his consistent run of quality approach play. According to the strokes-gained data we have, Langasque has ranked inside the top dozen in five of his last seven starts, and he's been bullish lately on social media when it comes to the overall state of his game.

Yes, we've been here before, but such is my faith in Langasque that we'll probably be here again – or at least I will. Perhaps next time we'll be able to refer to him as the two-time DP World Tour winner, both on stadium-style courses made specifically to cater for the demands of hosting a Ryder Cup.

Those looking for a local angle should consider Renato Paratore and Filippo Celli over Migliozzi and Edoardo Molinari, while I'll also reserve a last word for Nicolas Colsaerts, offered at 500/1 but more tempting for the first-round lead.

We got to see a fair bit of Colsaerts in Korea and he hit some fantastic shots over the first couple of rounds, enough to believe he might have a low one in him at this suitable venue at some stage along the way. The trouble is, I can't imagine him doing it for four.

Colsaerts of course will be in that Ryder Cup locker room in September, part of Donald's captaincy team. Whoever wins this event might be there with him, and chances are it's a big-hitter from towards the top of the betting. Someone like Nicolai Hojgaard, who I'm certain could do as Colsaerts did and step up were he given the nod for the team event which will help colour this individual one.

Posted at 1655 BST on 01/05/23

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