Ben Linfoot free horse racing British Champions Day tips for Saturday ITV racing at Ascot
The Champions Day Verdict: Saturday, October 21
1pt e.w. Believing in 1.50 Ascot at 22/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4, 20/1 General)
1pt win Time Lock in 2.25 Ascot at 5/1 (General)
1pt win Big Rock in 3.05 Ascot at 7/1 (William Hill, bet365)
1pt win Al Mubhir in 4.25 Ascot at 12/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes, 11/1 General)
1pt win Lattam in 4.25 Ascot at 20/1 (bet635, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
Head hope to Rock QEII rivals
Storm Babet has brought significant rainfall to Ascot ahead of QIPCO British Champions Day and so much so the races on the round course have switched to the inner hurdles track, just as they did in 2019.
We found that year that the races on the round course were pretty much run to form, while the results on the straight course were much harder to fathom, and it wouldn’t surprise if we are in for something similar on Saturday.
I don't really want to take on the twin attack of Kyprios and Trueshan in the Long Distance Cup, while in an intriguing Champion Stakes it’s hard to get away from the market leaders Horizon Dore and King Of Steel.
The latter is Frankie Dettori’s last ride at Ascot as a British-based jockey, probably, and his horse has put together a good body of work in some of the best Group 1 races around this year, only to fall short at the very top level so far.
This represents a fine chance for the son of Wootton Bassett, though, and he could well be the story of the day, but the switch to the better ground on the inner track firmly brings Mostahdaf into the equation and with that in mind I can’t really argue he’s anything but about the right price at the general 7/2.
Indeed, all Dettori’s rides have varying degrees of the ‘Frankie factor’ engineered into the odds and it didn’t take long for the bookies to recognise 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean was too big at 16/1 when L Dettori’s name appeared alongside Andrew Balding’s horse when the final field came through for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.
The son of Frankel could well bounce back to his best on a testing straight course, but while he should handle conditions just fine it’s Christopher Head’s BIG ROCK that could really thrive in the Ascot mud and he’s worth backing at 7/1.
Paddington sets the standard in this race, and if he’s at his best he’ll be tough to beat, but a testing ground Ascot straight course asks another different question of him and it remains to be seen if his break since York has been a positive for him, as he was really in the groove in the summer.
At 6/4 I’m happy to have a go against him and Big Rock appeals on this ground, as he slammed Horizon Dore by five lengths when eased down to win a Prix du Jockey Club trial in heavy ground at Chantilly over nine furlongs in May – a superb performance (see below).
He's run well since in defeat, including behind Ace Impact and Inspiral in top-class races, but it’s back on tough conditions where he can use his power to great effect under Aurelien Lemaitre.
There's a chance he could dominate this from the front end and in a race Head’s father, Freddy, won back-to-back with Charm Spirit and Solow in 2014 and 2015, he’s taken to uphold family honour in the QEII with the very likeable and talented Big Rock.
The Verdict: Back BIG ROCK in the QEII Stakes
Apt Time for Charlton winner
The switch to the inner track might have scuppered one or two of the interesting outsiders in the Fillies & Mares, including Term Of Endearment who won on bottomless ground at Cork last time out. On the better conditions I expect the classier form horses to hold sway, however, and preference is for TIME LOCK who has really come of age on her last two starts.
Her improvement can be in part put down to her settling better of late, the new patient tactics that were employed at Craon and Newmarket finally unlocking the promise this daughter of Frankel had shown when she first hit the racetrack as a three-year-old.
Time and patience has clearly benefited this Harry & Roger Charlton horse, this likely their last Group 1 runner as a partnership before the baton is passed down, and if William Buick gets her to relax like she has on her last two starts she can come home strongest of all.
He should have no trouble dropping her in and finding cover from the one stall, and his mount can travel into this nicely from off the pace, while Time Lock is from the family of Time Test, Tempus and Retirement Plan, three horses all with winning form at Ascot.
Free Wind sets the standard and Jackie Oh isn’t far behind her, but Time Lock doesn’t have an awful lot to find with either and she’s taken to improve by the pair of them.
The Verdict: Back TIME LOCK in the Filles & Mares
Exclusive Frankie Sky Bet Build-A-Bet
- Trawlerman to place in 1.15 Ascot (3 places)
- Kinross to win 1.50 Ascot
- Free Wind to win 2.25 Ascot
- Chaldean to place in 3.05 Ascot (3 places)
- King Of Steel to place in 3.45 Ascot (3 places)
Don’t stop Believing in the Sprint
Kinross takes an awful lot out of the market in the British Champions Sprint and when you consider he bolted up in this race last year and the ground has come in his favour his odds are understandable.
However, he has been beaten twice at six furlongs this season and he failed to overcome trouble in the run in an average renewal of the Prix de la Foret last time, so there’s enough doubt about his claims to have an each-way go against him.
There wasn’t much between him and Shouldvebeenaring in the Foret, which makes me think the Betfair Sprint Cup form shouldn’t be underestimated (Richard Hannon’s horse was a close second) – a statement backed up by the subsequent wins for Annaf (seventh at Haydock) and Rohaan (10th).
BELIEVING was third at Haydock for George Boughey, beaten less than a length, after running a huge race up the centre under Jason Hart. She would’ve been even closer and might’ve won if she’d run gun-barrel straight in the final furlong.
It’s no surprise, therefore, to see Boughey reach for the cheekpieces, as they could help her keep focused under pressure, and this could work out nicely for her if Danny Tudhope can race in the slipstream of Art Power and Swingalong towards the far side.
He rides the Ascot straight track well and he won on his only previous start aboard Believing at Pontefract, after which Boughey nominated this race for her as her main target for the campaign.
There’s no hard evidence she’ll go on the ground, but she shapes like she’ll go through it and it was officially soft when she won at Chantilly earlier in the season.
Haydock was a massive step forward in terms of her breaking well from the stalls, as she had issues in that regard earlier in the season, but such an Achilles Heel is less of a concern at Ascot in any case and at big prices she rates a fair each-way bet.
The Verdict: Back BELIEVING each-way in the Champions Sprint
Haggas against the field in Balmoral
William Haggas has dominated the valuable turf handicaps this Flat season, winning seven such races worth £50,000 or more, three clear of his nearest rival, with Lordship and Montassib adding to the coffers last weekend.
He won the Balmoral Handicap two years ago thanks to Aldaary and he could win it again this year with both his AL MUBHIR and LATTAM having excellent claims; both are worth getting onside at the prices.
Al Mubhir is a son of Frankel who loves testing ground. He’s won on Haydock heavy and ran a good race in the Lincoln on the same description back in the spring, before he bolted up at Leicester in ground Timeform recorded as heavy next time out.
He ran well in the Golden Mile at Goodwood when finding trouble from a wide draw, while he lost a shoe when beaten narrowly over an inadequate seven furlongs at Newbury last time.
A horse that stays 10 furlongs well, he’s better in a big-field mile scenario, especially when the mud is flying, and from his stands’ side draw Tom Marquand can drop him in and challenge where the gaps come.
Lattam is drawn more towards the far side of the track in stall eight but there’s lots of pace amongst the low numbers and he should have something to aim at under Cieren Fallon.
His sole win on turf this year came on soft/heavy ground at the Curragh in the Irish Lincolnshire, good evidence this sort of race is ideal for him, and he looks far from handicapped out of things off a mark of 95 on several bits of form.
They include his last two runs on easier tracks at Goodwood and York, his close-up defeats there hinting he could well go in again now he faces a sterner test of his stamina at the same mile trip.
He doesn’t have to find much more to get his head in front again and Haggas has applied the cheekpieces (he has a 17% strike-rate with that headgear first time) in a bid to squeeze that little bit more out of him.
The Verdict: Back AL MUBHIR and LATTAM in the Balmoral
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