QIPCO British Champions Day: race-by-race guide and a 50-1 tip
Groove Armada have been booked for post-race party on QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday but Wet Wet Wet might have been more appropriate.
Storm Babet is doing its best to be a damp squib with the weather forecast suggesting heavy ground is on the cards for the three races on the straight course – the Sprint, Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and Balmoral.
It is less clear what the going will be for the other three races on the card because it seems highly likely they will be switched to the inner Flat course, which is much less saturated.
Course officials have until 8am on Saturday to make the transfer, but are hoping hoping to make a decision at some point on Friday. The contingency has been in places for years – and was utilised in 2019 – so nobody should really be grumbling.
At the time of typing (1pm on Thursday) the going on the inside track is described as “good, good to soft in places”. Even with plenty more rain forecast, that gives hope that the going here will be no worse than soft. But also keep in mind that when the switch was made in 2019, the Fillies & Mares ended up being run over half a furlong shorter. That kind of critical information needs relaying sooner, rather than later, if it will again be the case.
It’s far from ideal for punters dealing with such variables (or connections who have supplemented in the hope of near bottomless conditions and no doubt a full 1m 4f race) but it's against a backdrop of at least one bookmaker, Star Sports, betting on whether the meeting will even go ahead. They make it 2-5 that at least one race takes place.
One of Wet Wet Wet’s albums was called Holding Back The River, but let’s hope it is more a case of Love Is All Around. Here’s a guide to each of the races.
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1.15 QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS LONG DISTANCE CUP
It’s case of the softer the ground, the better, for TRUESHAN, who can win this prize for the fourth successive year.
Trueshan was relentless when scoring by 7½ lengths on deep going in the 2020 edition and has got the job done in more workmanlike fashion in the past two editions, winning at the main expense of Coltrane and Trawlerman 12 months ago.
There was talk of him possibly going hurdling after he began this season in lacklustre fashion but it’s difficult to believe the winter game will ever beckon after victories in the Doncaster Cup and Prix du Cadran on his past two starts. Neither of those victories can be ranked among his best and his official rating is still 7lb below his peak, but they’ve at least advertised his wellbeing.
Kyprios was invincible in the staying division last season, but he’s missed most of the campaign well-documented health issues and he was well below his best when surrendering his Irish St Leger crown to Eldar Eldarov last month.
What was disconcerting is that Kyprios needed stoking from the start, and that he was in big trouble before the turn for home. Aidan O’Brien suggests he has since blossomed but Trueshan looks the safer punt, not least because he’s twice his price.
Coltrane has an enviable overall record and is yet to finish out of the first two in four runs at Ascot, losing out by a neck 12 months ago, but his dismal Doncaster Cup run last time is not easy to overlook, and he’s yet to prove himself on testing ground.
Sweet William has thrived on his racing this year, but he had to play second fiddle to Trueshan at Doncaster last time despite that rival doing plenty wrong.
1 TRUESHAN. 2 KYPRIOS. 3 SWEET WILLIAM
1.50 QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS SPRINT STAKES
Kinross had Run To Freedom, Rohaan, Vadream and Art Power behind when winning this race in emphatic fashion last year and is a short price to retain his crown.
He’s looked as good as ever this term, including when unlucky not to win the Prix de la Foret for the second successive year at Longchamp last time, and has his favoured ground. The one negative are his odds, which leave little margin for error in a dash such as this where the draw can play a part.
Of those who chased him home last year, Vadream is the most interesting. She’s well-served by testing conditions and should be spot-on for this assignment after shaping well here a couple of weeks ago, on her return from a three-month break.
SAINT LAWRENCE, available at 50-1, looks an each-way alternative at chunky odds, representing a team who sprung a surprise in this with Glen Shiel a couple of years ago. Something of an underachiever for Roger Varian, he clicked at the first time of asking when swooping from off the pace to win the Wokingham over course and distance in June.
He then jumped up to Group One company in the Prix Maurice de Gheest, at Deauville, and finished a fine third on soft ground after again tanking along in rear for much of the way.
I fancied him for the Sprint Cup at Haydock after those efforts but he was friendless in the betting and never figured after a clumsy start. His run in France tells us he’s better than that and the homebred is not without hope of avenging the narrow defeat of his sire, Al Kazeem, in the 2014 Champion Stakes.
1 SAINT LAWRENCE. 2 KINROSS. 3 VADREAM.
2.25 QIPCO BRITISH CHAMPIONS FILLIES & MARES STAKES
Eight of the past nine editions of the Fillies & Mares Stakes have been won by three-year-olds, which augurs well for the Aidan O’Brien-trained JACKIE OH.
Unraced at two, the daughter of Galileo is an improver who looks capable of better yet stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. O’Brien’s previous winners of this race, Hydrangea and Magical, have also been daughters of Galileo, with the former having her first run over the trip.
Jackie Oh won the Group Three Rathbride Stakes in decisive style over 9f at Gowran in July - a race Magical won en route to winning this in 2018 - and has since finished runner-up over a mile and a quarter at The Curragh and Longchamp. She ran a cracker on the second occasion when beaten a neck by two-time Classic winner Blue Rose Cen, with Nassau winner Al Husn back in fourth.
She gives the impression she will stay further and her siblings include two 1m 4f winners.
Time Lock is feared most after her emphatic defeat of Sweet Memories in Princess Royal Stakes at Newmarket last time. That career-best was achieved on quick ground but she is proven on slower going.
Free Wind was unable to make an impact in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last time but she had previously looked unlucky when touched off by Warm Heart in the Yorkshire Oaks. That puts her bang in the equation.
Above The Curve and Trevaunance should be capable of making their presence felt, while testing conditions will bolster their prospects of Rui Boissonade, who stays further, and Term Of Endearment, supplemented on Monday.
1 JACKIE OH. 2 TIME LOCK. 3 FREE WIND.
3.05 QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES (Sponsored By Qipco)
Derrmot Weld has expressed reservations about Tahiyra reproducing her best on the likely heavy going but she coped admirably with deep going when so impressive in last year’s Moyglare Stud Stakes. It was officially soft ground at The Curragh but Timeform assessed it as heavy.
Tahiyra was possibly short of peak fitness when edged out by Mawj on her return in the 1000 Guineas but she’s been faultless since then, reeling off successive wins in the Irish 1000 Guineas, Coronation Stakes and Matron Stakes at Leopardstown.
She won with great authority last time, having had a break, and is entitled to be as fresh as any of these. She can emulate Minding and Persuasive, who beat the boys in 2016 and 2017.
Paddington seeks a fifth Group One win of the year, having already landed the Irish 2000 Guineas, St James’s Palace Stakes, Eclipse and Sussex Stakes, mastering Facteur Cheval in the last-named contest.
He was unable to extend his winning sequence when a close third in the Juddmonte International at York last time, but probably wasn’t far off his best. Testing ground has not been a problem for him but his busy year – this will be his eighth run of the campaign – is a niggle.
Nashwa finished a neck in front of Paddington in the International and this admirably reliable mare may pose the biggest threat. She’s done most of her racing over ten furlongs but was electric when dropping to a mile in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket in July.
Chaldean’s 2000 Guineas win hasn’t worked out, and he was subsequently no match for Paddington at Royal Ascot, while French Derby runner-up Big Rock spurned a good opportunity last time and has been on the go for almost a year. Angel Bleu is in his element in the mud but doesn’t look good enough.
1 TAHIYRA. 2 NASHWA. 3 PADDINGTON.
3.40 QIPCO CHAMPION STAKES
Mostahdaf’s participation hinges on the ground being deemed suitable enough. He’s difficult to oppose, given he has taken his form to another level on his past two starts and has a CV that includes victories on testing going.
He put up one of the performances of the season at Royal Ascot, in June, when brushing aside Luxembourg (the subsequent Irish Champion Stakes winner) by four lengths in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, with My Prospero and Bay Bridge further behind.
He followed that by making all in the Juddmonte International, at York, repelling Nashwa and Paddington in a fast time.
Doubters will point to him being well beaten on heavy going in the Arc last year, but his two wins at Sandown earlier in his career were achieved in the mud. To my eye, he’s simply looked a different horse this season.
Bay Bridge was tenacious when lifting the prize last year, but he lined up fresh that day. This time, he goes to post having been sixth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe just three weeks ago, when he didn’t get home.
Derby runner-up King Of Steel has had a good season but a win at the highest level has eluded him. He’s looked well served by a sound surface and I’m not sure he had many excuses when finishing a close fourth in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on his latest start.
French challenger Horizon Dore seeks to emulate such as Cirrus Des Aigles, Almanzor and Sealiway, who have scooped this prize for France. He’s been impressive in lesser company, swooping from off the pace in the Prix Dollar at Longchamp last time. He has more on his plate – this will be his first run at the highest level – but commands respect.
The mud-loving trio of Via Sistina, Royal Rhyme and Point Lonsdale also require career-bests, while Dubai Honor and My Prospero have had their limitations exposed. The latter, a keeping-on third last year, is equipped with first-time blinkers.
4.25 BALMORAL HANDICAP (Sponsored By Qipco)
A fiercely competitive renewal in which BARADAR, a strong traveller who copes well with bad ground, gets the nod.
His brother, Roseman, was a mudlark who finished runner-up in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in 2020, and Baradar was himself placed in Group One company as a juvenile 12 months later.
His career has not quite gone to plan since then, but he was last off the bridle when third in the Lincoln (possibly needed the run) on his return and cheekpieces have added an edge on his past two starts, with wins secured here and at Doncaster over shorter. The step back up to a mile is a slight niggle, but his effectiveness in the mud cannot be underestimated and William Buick will no doubt look to smuggle him ahead late in the scene.
Migration won the Lincoln from Awaal, with Al Mubhir (fifth), Bopedro (eighth) further behind. Migration is effectively 9lb higher and disappointed next time, but his 167-day absence is a positive as he goes well fresh.
Britannia winner Docklands remains unexposed but he’s 10lb on very different ground, plus three-year-olds don’t have a great record in this. Sonny Liston has hinted he has a big handicap in him but is proving a tease.
1 BARADAR. 2 SONNY LISTON. 3 MIGRATION. 4 AL MUBHIR.
