QIPCO British Champions Day 2023: The big questions including Paddington, King Of Steel and Frankie Dettori

Farewell Frankie?

QIPCO British Champions Day has become synonymous with goodbyes. In 2012 we said farewell to Frankel, the greatest of them all, who retired unbeaten after winning the Champion Stakes in front of 32,000 who came to see Sir Henry Cecil’s colossal for one final time. Six years later his first great son, Cracksman, finished with a flourish on the racecourse by winning the same race in style.

And this Saturday we wave off Lanfranco Dettori, British racing’s adopted son who has lit up the sport for over 30 years. His retirement party may have been somewhat postponed by his decision to ride on in America, but this could be the last time we see him ride on a British racecourse - for all that statement will be met with scepticism by plenty.

Ascot, of course, was the setting for Dettori’s greatest moment in the saddle, when he went through the card on September 28, 1996. Then 25-years-old, Dettori got the world talking about horseracing thanks to the ‘Magnificent Seven’ and he got the bookmakers running for cover again at the same track some 23 years later, winning the first four races on the Thursday of Royal Ascot and going clear in the fifth.

Then again last year, on this day, a day that was meant to be all about Baaeed, it ended up being all about Frankie, a Champions Day double aboard Kinross and Emily Upjohn proving to be a glorious final chapter in an otherwise turbulent season. Not long after that the retirement decision was announced and here we are, finally, at the final stop of the farewell tour. From Britain, at least. Possibly. Whatever your feelings on that score, it’s hard to escape the Frankie frenzy that will overwhelm Ascot this weekend. So…

How do we rank Frankie’s Champions Day rockets?

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 King Of Steel – It’s all set up for a glorious Champion Stakes send off. There aren’t many horses Frankie could’ve manoeuvred himself onto in a race like this, without doing the hard graft behind the scenes, and that’s one of the reasons he’s flying off to the Californian sunset, but the King Of Steel situation was made for him. High-profile horse, high-profile retained jockey split, and here comes Dettori to save the day. The giant son of Wootton Bassett only has a King Edward VII Stakes to show for his efforts this season, but he has hinted at being miles better than that and 10 furlongs at Ascot at this time of year could be perfect for him. And in what could be a tactical race who better to have on board? This could be the story of the day – I expect it will be.

🚀🚀🚀🚀 Kinross – When Dettori needed a friend in 2022 along came Kinross, the pair teaming up for four victories together culminating in the British Champions Sprint. That victory was never in doubt from some way out and the son of Kingman has outstanding claims once again, but he has been beaten on his last two goes at six furlongs and he did get beat in the Prix de la Foret last time when sent off odds-on in a weak renewal. He was unlucky that day and conditions have come right for him in this race, but he might not be the Dettori banker the odds are suggesting he is in what looks a deeper contest than 12 months ago.

🚀🚀🚀 Free Wind – John Gosden’s magic touch with the fillies will be required here as the daughter of Galileo has had some tough reverses this season, notably in heavy ground at Goodwood and then in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last time. If she can defy those battle scars and bring her A-game to the table she has a super chance, and her head second to Warm Heart in the Yorkshire Oaks just two starts ago is recent evidence of her A-game. Gosden and Dettori have a good record in this race, winning it three times together including with Journey for Free Wind’s owner George Strawbridge, so she has a good chance, for all that she is one of several fillies and mares in this who could come out on top.

🚀🚀 Inspiral – If Kinross is Dettori’s pal his relationship with Inspiral probably has more of a love-hate element to it. The Frankel filly has shone in style under Frankie several times – the Coronation Stakes, the Jacques le Marois and most recently in the Sun Chariot – but she has kicked him while he’s been down a few times, too, notably when losing at 1/7 in the Falmouth and when denying him a Champions Day treble last year. Anyway, just the two rockets, as she looks unlikely to run on the softer ground given Gosden has Breeders’ Cup ambitions in mind for her. If she doesn’t run, could Dettori get back on another old friend in Chaldean? We’ll be watching that space.

🚀 Trawlerman – A final ride in the Godolphin blue at Ascot and it should be remembered this horse ran well in the Long Distance Cup last year, finishing third behind Trueshan at 20/1. Kyprios adds an extra layer of toughness to the competition this time around, though, and Trawlerman enjoyed the unseasonal faster ground in September, perhaps suggesting he won’t be as effective on soft ground (has never run on worse than good to soft). If Frankie wins on this one, an early famous four/five watch will be on.

How do you assess the French Champion Stakes challenger Horizon Dore?

He looks your typical French Champion Stakes challenger and we know France have an excellent record in this race having won it eight times since Triptych’s double in the 1980s. Like Cirrus Des Aigles he’s a gelding, so can’t run in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and like Cirrus Des Aigles he looks better at 10 furlongs anyway, his last two victories over that distance at Longchamp marking him out as a serious contender for this race.

The one thing I would say is he’s been very well found in the market, as this will be his toughest test yet and the one really good horse he has faced this season, Big Rock, beat him a couple of times. Horizon Dore has improved significantly since then, no doubt about it, but all of his potential seems to be factored into his odds already and at those prices (5/2 and shorter) I think I'll be looking elsewhere.

Is the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes all about Paddington v Tahiyra?

It’s not confirmed yet whether the inner hurdles track will be used instead of the main track in the event of heavy ground appearing in the going description, but it could happen just as it did back in 2019.

Back then all the races on the round course ran to form – Kew Gardens and Stradivarius served up a Long Distance Cup thriller, Star Catcher justified 7/4 favouritism in the Fillies and Mares and Magical was an even-money winner of the Champion Stakes – while the winners on the testing straight course were hard to find. Donjuan Triumphant won the Sprint at 33/1 and King Of Change won the QEII at 12/1 - with favourite Benbatl trailing home in last.

Bayside Boy was a 33/1 winner of the QEII last year, as well, and for all that the cream can rise to the top in this race, it’s not a given on this track at this time of year.

I do think the straight course could well produce the almost unfathomable once again, so I’d be loathe to rule out some strange goings on in the QEII for all that Paddington and Tahiyra set the standard on all we’ve seen this season. For instance, I wouldn’t rule out 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean bouncing back to something like his best back on a straight track after a break on ground he likes. It's certainly about more than the big two for me.

Who can challenge Kinross in the British Champions Sprint?

Building on the above answer, we saw Champions Sprint winners return at 10/1, 28/1, 33/1 and 16/1 between 2017 and 2020 so this is a race capable of throwing up an upset, especially when you’ve got a favourite like Kinross who will take plenty out of the market.

It’s difficult to place cold hard cash down on Shaquille, too, given what happened last time, for all that he looked like a sprinter out of the top drawer earlier in the season, so the outsiders are well worth having a good look at in this contest.

Vadream was an outsider not too many days ago, but she’s into 10/1 now and it’s not hard to see why. She was thriving at the start of the campaign thanks to the wet spring and though she went off the boil come June and July she had a nice long break after the July Cup and returned with a promising run at Ascot in the Bengough Stakes on October 7. She’ll love the soft ground and she has run well in this race twice before when the ground was probably a bit lively for her.

Mehmas filly Believing handled soft ground well when winning at Chantilly earlier in the season and she ran a belter at 66/1 when a running-on third to Regional in the Betfair Sprint Cup, so she comes into calculations at 20/1, while the same prices are disappearing about William Haggas’ Sense Of Duty, who brings the most unexposed profile in the race to the table.

Can Trueshan’s Champions Day record be a factor against Kyprios?

Trueshan has a perfect record on Champions Day, winning the Long Distance Cup in each of the last three years. The combination of the track and his ability to handle varying degrees of cut in the ground have held him in good stead and, though he looked to be regressing earlier in the year, wins at Doncaster and Longchamp look to have steadied the ship in that regard.

It’s unfortunate, really, that he has only met Kyprios the once before, when third to him in the 2022 Goodwood Cup on good ground, but the long-awaited rematch finally looks to be on and make no mistake, Aidan O’Brien’s horse will have a fight on his hands with Trueshan going for a four-timer in the race.

Having said all that, the market has Kyprios at 5/4 and Trueshan at 9/4 and that looks about right. Kyprios developed into a mentally strong and physically intimidating stayer during his golden run last year, and, while it remains to be seen if his 344 days off the track and the joint infection that delayed his return have diminished his talents, if his comeback run in the Irish St Leger brings him to within half a stone of his 2022 peak, then he’s the one they all have to beat.

Who are the main threats to Free Wind in the Fillies & Mares?

Jackie Oh looks the obvious one for Aidan O’Brien. An improving daughter of Galileo, her best three runs have been her last three, all over 10 furlongs, and she’s completely untried over 1m4f. Time Lock is even more of a late bloomer for the Charltons and she has a chance on her Group 3 win at Newmarket last time, while Via Sistina is the form pick but she has the option of the Champion Stakes, too.

I’m not surprised to see money for the French raider Rue Boissonade on Tuesday, as she ran well in Group 1 company behind Warm Heart and Sea Silk Road at Longchamp on her last two starts, just shaping as though she would appreciate softer ground at this trip.

She’s got her conditions and if there is to be another plunge horse in the race it could well be the supplemented Terms Of Endearment from the Henry de Bromhead stable. The Sea The Moon filly looks strong and she was in her element in the soft-heavy ground when running away with a Group 3 at Cork last time on a card that was subsequently abandoned due to the conditions.

In a nutshell, what are your predictions for Champions Day?

• Frankie Dettori steals the show on King Of Steel with a barnstorming victory in the Champion Stakes.
• The straight track throws up some head-scratching results.
• William Haggas wins the Balmoral Handicap.

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