Best bets for the PGA Tour Shriners Children's Open

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10 October 2023

Shriners Children's Open

Luke List made a 43-foot birdie to emerge from a five-man playoff to win the Sanderson Farms Championship last weekend. List, at pre-tournament odds of 50-1, picked up his second career PGA Tour victory in the playoff over Ludvig Åberg, Ben Griffin, Henrik Norlander and Scott Stallings.

Griffin, the overnight leader by three strokes, despite shaky play for much of the final round, held a two-stroke lead with just three holes to play after many of his rivals failed to finish off their challenges. However, Griffin couldn’t finish it off either after he bogeyed 16 and short-sided himself on 18. His par putt from 8 feet, 3 inches on the final green to win by one agonizingly floated over the right edge of the cup.

This week, the PGA Tour heads to Las Vegas, Summerlin to be exact, for the Shriners Children's Open. Tom Kim (11-1) returns as the defending champion and as the tournament favorite. Åberg (14-1) was tantalizingly close to earning his first PGA Tour victory a month after picking up his first win on the DP World Tour at the Omega European Masters.

Cam Davis (22-1) finished third last time out at the Fortinet Championship and had finished top 10 or better in four of his last five starts. South Koreans have won this event in two consecutive years — Tom Kim in 2022 and Sungjae Im in 2021 — and Si Woo Kim (25-1) will attempt to become the third in a row.

J.J Spaun (33-1) is a regular participant in this tournament. Those at 35-1 include J.T. Poston, who finished T-4 here in 2017, Nicolai Højgaard, who like Åberg is just two weeks removed from a triumph in the Ryder Cup, Tom Hoge, who finished T-4 here last year, and Eric Cole, who has made 12 consecutive cuts dating back to the Memorial.

At 40-1 are Adam Hadwin, who has four top-10-or-better finishes here in just seven appearances, Adam Schenk, who was T-3 here in 2021, and Andrew Putnam, who has been 11th and 12th here the last two years.

Former champions in this week's field include Tom Kim, 2009 and 2020 winner Martin Laird (100-1), 2014 winner Ben Martin (200-1), 2013 winner Webb Simpson (100-1), and 2012 winner Ryan Moore (200-1).

One other notable in the field this week is LPGA Tour star Lexi Thompson, who is listed at 5000-1 at Caesars Sportsbook, and playing this week on a sponsor's exemption.

The Event

The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open was founded as the Las Vegas Pro Celebrity Classic in 1983. At the time, the event had the highest purse on the PGA Tour at $750,000. The field will be playing for a slightly larger total purse of $8.4 million this week. The tournament was originally a 90-hole event before going to 72 holes in 2004. Many fans will know this event as the Las Vegas Invitational, which it was named from 1984-1999. It was also the site of Tiger Woods’ first PGA Tour win in 1996 when he defeated Davis Love III in a playoff. The tournament boasts an extensive list of major championship winners including Woods, Jim Furyk, Fuzzy Zoeller, Curtis Strange, Greg Norman, Paul Azinger, Davis Love III, Webb Simpson and Bryson DeChambeau.

Before TPC Summerlin took over as sole host in 2008, a variety of Las Vegas courses were played in the event, including TPC Las Vegas, Bear's Best, Southern Highlands, Desert Inn (now Wynn), Las Vegas CC, Las Vegas National, Spanish Trail, Showboat (now Wildhorse) and Sunrise (now Stallion Mountain). Shriners Hospitals for Children took over event operations in 2007.

There will be 132 golfers in the field with 500 FedExCup points and a two-year PGA Tour exemption on the line. The cut line on Friday will include the top 65 and ties.

The Course

TPC Summerlin plays host this week. The course is located at the base of Red Rock Canyon in the community of Summerlin, which is about a 20-minute drive west from the Las Vegas Strip. The track was designed by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1991. It plays as a par-71 of 7,255 yards.

There are 92 bunkers (seventh most on tour) and four water hazards (in play on four holes.). TPC Summerlin is an exposed desert track with very few trees. The Bermuda fairways are of average width (34 yards) but undulating. The Bermuda rough is only about 2.25 inches high, so it's not hard to gouge out of it, but it will take away the ability to spin approach shots closer to the pins. The course is a rare combination of Bermuda fairways and rough to go along with Bentgrass greens. The only other course on tour with that combination is Colonial Country Club, home of the Charles Schwab Challenge. The greens are large (7,400 square feet average, fifth largest on tour) and of modest speed (11.5 stimpmeter).

The track plays at around 2,700 feet of elevation (highest on tour), so the ball flies about 3% further than if at sea level and the course plays shorter than its listed distance of 7,255 yards not only because of the elevation but the firm fairways.

In 2018, all bunkers underwent strategic realignment, improved contouring and drainage, and new sand was installed.

Over the last five years, TPC Summerlin is the sixth-easiest course on tour at 1.98 strokes under par (not including 2018 when there were abnormally high winds). Three years ago, this event set the PGA record for the lowest cut line in PGA Tour history at 7 under.

The par-5s are typically reachable in two shots. Due to the course’s elevation, that also includes the 606-yard 13th hole. The par-3s are a good mix of lengths measuring from 168 yards to 239 yards. Six of the 11 par-4s are between 420 and 450 yards and rank among the easiest group of par-4s on tour.

The final four holes typically provide an exciting closing stretch. The 15th features a driveable par-4 at 341 yards. Hole 16 is a risk/reward par-5 that is reachable in two shots while the 17th is a dangerous par-3 that features water on two sides. The final hole is a strong par-4 that sits at 444 yards. Overall, there is a ton of swing potential for scoring in this stretch.

Correlated courses to TPC Summerlin include TPC Scottsdale, PGA West Stadium, TPC San Antonio, Waialae, Colonial, Silverado and CC Jackson.

Recent History

2022: Tom Kim (-24/260); 22-1

2021: Sungjae Im (-24/260); 30-1

2020: Martin Laird (-23/261); 225-1*

2019: Kevin Na (-23/261); 70-1**

2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21/263); 14-1

2017: Patrick Cantlay (-9/275); 20-1***

2016: Rod Pampling (-20/264); 300-1

2015: Smylie Kaufman (-16/268); 250-1

2014: Ben Martin (-20/264); 225-1

2013: Webb Simpson (-24/260); 20-1

2012: Ryan Moore (-24/260); 14-1

2011: Kevin Na (-23/261); 60-1

2010: Jonathan Byrd (-23/261); 50-1****

Playoff win over Austin Cook and Matthew Wolff - *

Playoff win over Patrick Cantlay - **

Playoff win over Alex Cejka and Whee Kim (high winds & no player with all four rounds in the 60s) - ***

Playoff win over Martin Laird & Cameron Percy (hole-in-one on third playoff hole) - ****

Trends and Angles

Eight of the last 12 winners of the Shriners had finishes of T-16 or better at this event in a year before their win.
Nine of the last 13 winners had a T-11 or better in their previous five tournaments leading up to their win.
Nine of the last 12 winners were age 30 or younger.
The last 12 winners had already won a PGA Tour event.

Statistical Analysis

Due to the elevation plus the wide and firm fairways, distance off the tee is not a prerequisite for success here. Shorter hitters including Kevin Na, Martin Laird, Webb Simpson, Tom Kim, Ben Martin and Jonathan Byrd have won here in recent years. It is more important to hit from the fairways because it is difficult to control spin out of the Bermuda rough.

Good Drives Gained (Last 50 rounds)

Matthew NeSmith 45.1
Si Woo Kim 40.1
Andrew Putnam 36.9
Ben Martin 36.8
Ryan Armour 36.6
Aaron Rai 35.6
Hayden Buckley 35
Doug Ghim 34.8
Emiliano Grillo 33.4
Tom Kim 31.5
Chez Reavie 28.5
Brice Garnett 28.5
James Hahn 28.2
Tyler Duncan 27.9
Mark Hubbard 27.6
Carson Young 26.6
J.J. Spaun 26.3

Last year, TPC Summerlin featured the third-easiest greens to hit on the entire PGA Tour. It was also the 13th-easiest course to gain strokes on Approach. Nevertheless, it is still prudent to examine who is best at gaining with the irons.

Strokes Gained Approach (Last 50 rounds)

Mark Hubbard 45.9
Chez Reavie 37.1
Alex Smalley 36.9
Adam Schenk 34.2
Aaron Rai 33.8
Andrew Putnam 33.4
Kevin Roy 31
Eric Cole 29.7
Sam Ryder 28.9
Ryan Moore 28.2
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 27.9
Kevin Streelman 27.3
Nate Lashley 25.9
Si Woo Kim 22.7

This event will be a birdie-fest with the winning score being at least 21 under par over the last five years and it will also be a wedge-fest with over a third of the approach shots coming 100-150 yards from the hole.

Proximity Gained 100-125 Yards (Last 50 rounds)

Patton Kizzire 7.2
Sam Ryder 6.9
Eric Cole 6.7
Kevin Streelman 6.7
Paul Haley II 6.3
Brian Stuard 6
Greyson Sigg 5.9
Charley Hoffman 5.2
Harry Hall 5.2
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 5.1
Andrew Landry 4.9
Russell Knox 4.9
Nick Watney 4.8
Nate Lashley 4.6
Jimmy Walker 4.6
Chez Reavie 4.5
Carl Yuan 4.2
Vincent Whaley 4

Proximity Gained 125-150 Yards (Last 50 rounds)

Charley Hoffman 9.3
Aaron Rai 8.1
Tom Kim 7.3
Cam Davis 6.8
Akshay Bhatia 6.8
Nicolai Hojgaard 6.7
Eric Cole 5.8
Nick Taylor 5.8
C.T. Pan 5.7
Ryan Moore 5.6
Chesson Hadley 5.5
Tom Hoge 4.7
Doc Redman 4.5
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 4.4
Davis Riley 4.2
Chez Reavie 4
J.J. Spaun 4

Over the past few years, TPC Summerlin has ranked as the third-toughest course to gain strokes Around the Greens, including the second toughest from the fairway and the eighth toughest from the bunkers.

Strokes Gained Around The Green (Last 50 rounds)

Matthias Schwab 24.7
Alex Noren 19.4
Ben Griffin 19.1
Harry Hall 17.4
Adam Long 17.1
Eric Cole 15.9
SH Kim 15.9
Tayo Goya 15.6
Peter Malnati 15.2
Beau Hossler 14.6
Cam Davis 14.4
Taylor Montgomery 13.3
Brandt Snedeker 12.9
Troy Merritt 12.1
Austin Cook 12.1

TPC Summerlin rates as the seventh-easiest course to gain strokes putting over the last five years. Nevertheless, it is good to look at the better putters on pure Bentgrass greens.

Strokes Gained Putting Bentgrass Greens (Last 50 rounds)

Justin Lower 45.3
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 37.2
J.T. Poston 32.5
Beau Hossler 31.7
Eric Cole 29.3
Lucas Herbert 27.7
Justin Suh 27.3
Alex Noren 27.1
Austin Cook 25.8
Patrick Rodgers 25.2
Adam Hadwin 22.4
Adam Svensson 21.9
Andrew Putnam 21.3
Peter Malnati 21.2

The greens at TPC Summerlin are some of the largest on tour, so three-putt avoidance should be examined.

Three-Putt Avoidance (Last 50 rounds)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 15.48
Brian Stuard 13.1
Beau Hossler 12.34
Eric Cole 10.97
Vincent Whaley 10.52
J.T. Poston 10.52
Andrew Putnam 8.97
Emiliano Grillo 8.82
Adam Long 8.82
Michael Kim 8.78
Ben Griffin 8.36
Robby Shelton 8.26
Nicolas Echavarria 7.71
Garrick Higgo 7.65
Taylor Montgomery 7.06

To win at TPC Summerlin, players have to create birdie opportunities in abundance and convert on said opportunities.

Opportunities Gained (Last 50 rounds)

Eric Cole 40.9
Tom Hoge 37.6
Alex Smalley 30.8
Chez Reavie 29.9
Ryan Palmer 28.5
Ludvig Åberg 28.4
Charley Hoffman 28.4
Kevin Yu 26.5
Luke List 26.4
Kevin Roy 26.4
Michael Kim 24.1
Ben Martin 22.9
Matthias Schwab 22.6
Akshay Bhatia 22.6
Si Woo Kim 21.9
Doug Ghim 21.3
Ryan Moore 20.5
Davis Riley 20.5

Birdie Or Better Gained (Last 50 rounds)

Eric Cole 43.5
Cam Davis 30.6
Tom Kim 25.2
Ludvig Åberg 24.6
Nicolai Hojgaard 24.2
Vincent Norrman 22.2
Adam Svensson 21.8
Emiliano Grillo 20.7
Kevin Yu 19.6
Peter Kuest 19.6
Doug Ghim 19.1
Mark Hubbard 18.3
Akshay Bhatia 18

TPC Summerlin ranked as the sixth-easiest course on the PGA Tour last year.

Strokes Gained Total Easy Scoring Conditions (Last 50 rounds)

Tom Kim 70.7
Taylor Montgomery 60.4
Tom Hoge 55.5
Robby Shelton 53.5
Nick Hardy 49.3
J.T. Poston 49.2
Alex Smalley 49
Davis Thompson 47.2
Eric Cole 46.1
Andrew Putnam 45.3
Nicolas Echavarria 45
J.J. Spaun 44.6
Doug Ghim 44.3
Ben Griffin 43.8
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 41

Seven of the 11 par-4s measure between 400 and 450 yards.

Strokes Gained Par-4s 400-450 Yards (Last 50 rounds)

Aaron Rai 20.1
Doug Ghim 19.6
Cam Davis 19
Beau Hossler 17.7
Hayden Buckley 16.6
Tom Kim 14.6
Akshay Bhatia 14.3
Jimmy Walker 14.1
Kevin Streelman 12.9
Michael Kim 11.7
Taylor Montgomery 11.5
Patrick Rodgers 11.5
Lucas Herbert 11.5
Callum Tarren 10.4

Selections

Eric Cole (35-1, DraftKings)

Cole was widely backed in the market last week at the Sanderson Farms and finished a disappointing 35th but did rank fourth in the field for Strokes Gained: Around The Green and 10th for Strokes Gained: Approach.

He lost strokes off the tee but should fare better here with the wide and firm fairways.

Cole ranks first in this field for Birdie Or Better Gained and Opportunities Gained, fifth for Strokes Gained Bentgrass Putting and eighth for Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 50 rounds.

This looks like a spot to buy on a bit of a dip from last week's finish.

Tom Hoge (38-1, Circa Sports)

Hoge finished fourth here last year and seventh in 2017.

He is starting to come into form with a 14th against an elite field at the BMW PGA Championship, where he was fourth for Strokes Gained: Approach and a 13th last week at the Sanderson Farms, where he ranked fifth in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach.

Hoge also ranks second in this week's field for Opportunities Gained.

Davis Thompson (55-1, Circa Sports)

While he is not the Thompson in this field getting the most publicity this week, Davis has been playing solid golf of late.

He finished 12th on debut here last year and is getting a second look at these courses having been a rookie last season.

Last week he was 16th at the Sanderson Farms, but the numbers indicated that he deserved a better finish. From a Strokes Gained perspective, he was fifth for Off the Tee, 15th for Approach and 13th for Tee to Green. Furthermore, he ranked 12th for Driving Accuracy, third for Total Driving, seventh for Greens in Regulation, fourth for Total Accuracy, second for Ball Striking and sixth for All-Around.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (75-1, Circa Sports)

Bezuidenhout posted his best finish of 2023 at the Sanderson Farms last week with a T-6 and just missing out on the playoff by one stroke and ranked sixth in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach plus eighth for Strokes Gained: Putting.

Bez ranks second in this field for Strokes Gained: Bentgrass Putting and first for Three-Putt Avoidance.

He also ranks near the top of this field for Approach and the Proximity ranges of 100-150 yards and could thrive here in a wedge-fest.

Taylor Montgomery (90-1, PointsBet)

Las Vegas native and resident Montgomery appeared to be destined to get a PGA Tour victory in short order during his rookie season. Well, it never happened despite continuing hot form from the Korn Ferry Tour last fall and starting 2023.

He was less than a third of this price in last year's event but now has drifted upwards to a playable number on a course that he knows like the back of his hand.

Erik van Rooyen (110-1, PointsBet)

Van Rooyen is in good form of late with a top-10 and two other top-20 finishes in his last four starts.

Van Rooyen ranked fourth last week for Strokes Gained: Approach en route to a T-16 at the Sanderson Farms.

EVR tends to thrive in desert/altitude golf with a victory at the Barracuda back in 2021 (also sixth this year) but also had success at the American Express (sixth this year) and high finishes in Qatar, Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Any matchups and placement markets will be available at VSiN.com/picks