Best bets for the PGA Tour Sanderson Farms Championship

Sanderson Farms Championship

The American drought on European soil, dating back to 1993, was extended last weekend as Team Europe defeated Team USA 16.5-11.5 in Rome to take back the Ryder Cup. The Europeans have won seven straight Ryder Cups on home soil. Team Europe has three of the top four players in the world — Rory McIlroy (No. 2; 4-1 record; 4 points), Jon Rahm (No. 3; 2-0-2 record; 3 points) and Viktor Hovland (No. 4; 3-1-1; 3.5 points) — and they all delivered like the top-ranked world players should. The Europeans jumped out to a 4-0 lead in Friday foursomes and were ready to go right away. The Americans, on the other hand, were clearly rusty after more than a month off and wound up climbing uphill all weekend.

The Ryder Cup discussions and ramifications for go on for weeks, but the tours return to action this week and the PGA Tour makes its annual stop in Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Speaking of the Ryder Cup, rookie Ludvig Åberg posted a 2-2 record (2 points) including a 2-0 record in foursomes with Hovland as his partner. Åberg (12-1) is the current favorite this week at the Sanderson Farms. However, he could be a candidate to withdraw like his Ryder Cup teammate Nicolai Hojgaard did Monday.

Eric Cole (20-1) is still on the short list to win PGA Tour Rookie of the Year. Emiliano Grillo (25-1) finished fifth here last year and is a PGA Tour winner from earlier this year in the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial. Stephan Jaeger (25-1) has made 21 of 23 cuts in 2023 but has just one top-10.

Aside from Åberg and Grillo, other OWGR Top 60 players in the field include Lucas Herbert (40-1), Tom Hoge (50-1) and Lee Hodges (55-1).

Several former Sanderson Farms champions are also in this week's field, including the event's defending champion Mackenzie Hughes (66-1), 2018 winner Cameron Champ (80-1), 2017 winner Ryan Armour (350-1), 2016 winner Cody Gribble (350-1), 2015 winner Peter Malnati (80-1), 2012 winner Scott Stallings (100-1) and 2006 winner D.J. Trahan (500-1).

The Event

The Sanderson Farms Championship has been part of the PGA Tour schedule since 1968 when it began as the Magnolia State Classic. It has had a variety of names over the years, including the Deposit Guaranty Golf Classic, Southern Farm Bureau Classic, Viking Classic and the True South Classic before Sanderson Farms, the third-largest poultry producer in the United States and based in Laurel, Miss., took over as the title sponsor in 2013. The tournament began as a satellite event (money earned counted, but wins were unofficial) but became an official Tour event in 1994. After spending nearly a quarter-century as an alternate event, it became a full tour event in 2019. The winner now gets full FedEx Cup points, a two-year tour exemption and spots in the Masters, PGA, Players and Sentry TOC.

The Course

The Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Miss., has hosted the Sanderson Farms since 2014. CC of Jackson was designed in 1962 by Dick Wilson and redesigned by John Fought and Mike Gogel in 2008. The track plays as a par-72 of 7,461 yards and there are only 56 bunkers and seven water hazards (in play on five holes). The Bermuda fairways are flat and relatively narrow (seventh narrowest on tour — 29.2 feet average fairway width). The Bermuda/Zoysia rough is not all that penal at just two inches.

The Champion Ultra Dwarf Bermuda Greens are 6,200 square feet on average and fast (12-13 stimpmeter). Fought was a longtime admirer of Donald Ross, so the greens are raised, slope from back to front and have run-off areas, which are Ross trademarks. The green surfaces resemble TPC Southwind, Trinity Forest, Quail Hollow and Sedgefield.

Along with fast greens, three of the four par-5s are quite lengthy at over 580 yards, so these will be three-shot holes for the majority of the field.

The 72-hole tournament record is 263 set by Dan Halldorson (1986 at Hattiesburg GC). The record on this CC of Jackson track is 266, set by Sam Burns in 2021.

The CC of Jackson course record is 62, set by Roberto Castro (first round, 2015).

Correlated courses to the Country Club of Jackson include Sedgefield, Memorial Park, Golf Club of Houston, Detroit Golf Club, Silverado and Congaree.

Sanderson Farms Championship Recent History

2022: Mackenzie Hughes (-17/271); 130-1*

2021: Sam Burns (-22/266); 16-1

2020: Sergio Garcia (-19/269); 70-1

2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18/270); 66-1**

2018: Cameron Champ (-21/267); 66-1

2017: Ryan Armour (-19/269); 125-1

2016: Cody Gribble (-20/268); 125-1

2015: Peter Malnati (-18/270); 250-1

2014: Nick Taylor (-16/272); 400-1

Playoff win over Sepp Straka - *

Playoff win over Sungjae Im - **

Trends and Angles

• Four of the last five winners (Burns, Garcia, Munoz, and Champ) rated first, first, fourth and second for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee during their respective winning weeks.
• Six of the last nine winners have been first-time winners on the PGA Tour.

Statistical Analysis

The last three winners here have ranked sixth or better for Strokes Gained: Approach.

Strokes Gained Approach (Last 50 rounds)

1. Mark Hubbard 37.7
2. Chez Reavie 37.6
3. Alex Smalley 33.9
4. Kevin Roy 29
5. Eric Cole 28.4
6. Sam Ryder 24.7
7. Ryan Moore 24.7
8. Kevin Streelman 24.1
9. Ryan Palmer 23.3
10. Nate Lashley 22.4
11. Akshay Bhatia 21.7
12. David Lipsky 20.8
13. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 20
14. Doug Ghim 19.7
15. Dylan Wu 19.6
16. Luke List 19.2

34% of approaches here are from the wedge range of 100-150 yards. The tour average from this range is only 27%.

Proximity Gained 100-125 Yards (Last 50 rounds)

1. Camilo Villegas 9.2
2. Eric Cole 7.6
3. Jimmy Walker 7.1
4. Patton Kizzire 7.1
5. Harry Hall 6.6
6. Sam Ryder 6.4
7. Harry Higgs 6
8. Satoshi Kodaira 5.7
9. Paul Haley II 5.7
10. Brian Stuard 5.7
11. Kevin Streelman 5.5
12. Charley Hoffman 5.3
13. Greyson Sigg 5.3
14. Seung-yul Noh 4.9
15. Dylan Wu 4.9
16. Vincent Whaley 4.9
17. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 4.7
18. Nick Watney 4.6

Proximity Gained 125-150 Yards (Last 50 rounds)

1. Charley Hoffman 9.6
2. Satoshi Kodaira 7.6
3. Akshay Bhatia 7.2
4. Doug Ghim 6.4
5. Kyle Stanley 5.7
6. C.T. Pan 5.7
7. Jason Dufner 4.9
8. Camilo Villegas 4.5
9. Ryan Moore 4.5
10. Chez Reavie 4.4
11. Chesson Hadley 4.4
12. Davis Riley 4.3
13. Tom Hoge 4.3

Before Hughes' victory last year, the Sanderson Farms winner ranked in the top 4 in the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee

Strokes Gained Off The Tee (Last 50 rounds)

1. Brett Grant 38.3
2. Keith Mitchell 35.7
3. Garrick Higgo 33.7
4. Luke List 33.4
5. Hayden Buckley 31.3
6. Kevin Yu 30.3
7. Ludvig Åberg 28.4
8. MJ Daffue 28.1
9. Trevor Cone 27.4
10. Tyler Duncan 25.5
11. Cameron Champ 25
12. SH Kim 23.1
13. Stephan Jaeger 23
14. Samuel Stevens 22
15. Davis Thompson 21.9
16. Beau Hossler 21.5
17. Ryan Palmer 21.1
18. Doug Ghim 20.4

The field's average driving distance has increased from the previous year in five of the last six Sanderson Farms events.

Driving Distance Gained (Last 50 rounds)

1. Brandon Matthews 21.4
2. Peter Kuest 20.4
3. Cameron Champ 17.6
4. Matti Schmid 16
5. Ludvig Åberg 14.9
6. Kyle Westmoreland 13.9
7. Brett Grant 13.7
8. Trevor Cone 13.1
9. Garrick Higgo 12.7
10. Keith Mitchell 12.6
11. Derek Ernst 11.9
12. Ryan Brehm 11.8
13. Luke List 11.7
14. MJ Daffue 11.6
15. Augusto Núñez 11.3
16. Will Gordon 11
17. Callum Tarren 10.9
18. Kevin Yu 10.4
19. Trey Mullinax 10

Five of the last eight Sanderson Farms champions topped the entire field in birdie or better percentage.

Birdie Or Better Gained (Last 50 rounds)

1. Eric Cole 40.2
2. Dylan Wu 27.4
3. Emiliano Grillo 26.9
4. Akshay Bhatia 21.5
5. Stephan Jaeger 21.1
6. Doug Ghim 20.7
7. Peter Kuest 20.5
8. Ludvig Åberg 19.3
9. Kevin Yu 17.8
10. Brandon Wu 17.3
11. Harry Hall 15.7
12. Davis Riley 15.4
13. Scott Piercy 14.9
14. Mark Hubbard 14.9
15. Nick Hardy 14.3
16. Carson Young 14.1

In 2022 at the Sanderson Farms, every player in the top five finished top-10 in par-5 scoring.

Strokes Gained Par-5s (Last 50 rounds)

1. Davis Thompson 25.3
2. Dylan Wu 25.3
3. Richy Werenski 19.4
4. Ludvig Åberg 18.2
5. KH Lee 18.2
6. Peter Kuest 17.3
7. Stephan Jaeger 16
8. Kevin Yu 14.2
9. Ryan Gerard 14.1
10. Ryan Palmer 13.3
11. Adam Long 12.5
12. Akshay Bhatia 11.5
13. SH Kim 11.3
14. Scott Harrington 11

While poor putters (Garcia, Champ) have won here, these greens are some of the fastest on tour and hole locations are known for being placed in some of the most sloped parts of the green complexes.

Strokes Gained Putting Bermuda Greens (Last 50 rounds)

1. Brian Gay 44.6
2. Ben Taylor 41.3
3. Alex Noren 36.4
4. Martin Trainer 35
5. Greg Chalmers 25.4
6. Ben Griffin 25.1
7. Sung Kang 23.7
8. Harry Hall 23.2
9. Sam Ryder 22.9
10. Chesson Hadley 21.5
11. Kelly Kraft 20.8
12. Kevin Kisner 20.4
13. Richy Werenski 20.2

Selections

Garrick Higgo (40-1, DraftKings)

Higgo was third here on debut last year.

A winner at Congaree in 2021, Higgo should fit here on this correlated course that does not have much penal rough.

The South African is one of the longest hitters in the field off the tee.

Sam Ryder (47-1, Circa Sports)

Ryder has made four consecutive cuts including a 14th three weeks ago at the Fortinet and led that field for Strokes Gained: Approach.

He is also an outstanding putter on Bermuda greens, ranking ninth in this field over the last 50 rounds.

Callum Tarren (50-1, Boyd Sports)

Tarren, who finished 13th here last year, began 2023 missing nine of 11 cuts to start the season. However, he has finished seventh (Fortinet) and 13th (3M Open) in two of his last three events and is in better form.

Plus, he fits the profile of a big hitter off the tee who will not be penalized all that much for missing fairways.

Kevin Yu (60-1, DraftKings)

Yu finished in the top 20 on debut here last year.

The man from Taiwan ranks top 10 in this field for Strokes Gained par-5s, Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and Birdie Or Better Gained.

Tom Hoge (65-1, Circa Sports)

Hoge is back from playing two DP World Tour events in which he made both cuts and earned a T-14 at the BMW PGA Championship against a field that included the entire victorious European Ryder Cup team.

He currently rates No. 50 in the OWGR, and the top 50 players at the end of 2023 earn invitations to the Masters if not already exempt, which Hoge is not.

MJ Daffue (75-1, Boyd Sports)

Daffue finished 12th on debut here in 2020.

Like his South African compatriot Higgo, he is a big hitter off the tee and is top 10 in this field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee.

Kevin Streelman (85-1, Circa Sports)

Streelman has a top-5 (fourth in 2019) and a top-10 (10th in 2017) here.

He ranks top 10 in this field for Strokes Gained: Approach.

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