Best College Football Bets Week 11
#2 Michigan @ #9 Penn State
PICK: Michigan -4.5 (-115)
Michigan is the public play, but what does Penn State have going for them on Saturday? The home crowd advantage is excellent until the Nittany Lions get smacked in the mouth, and then it’s not very meaningful.
Penn State has everything they want still in front of them in 2023. If they shocked the world and beat the Wolverines, and Michigan beat Ohio State, Penn State owns the tiebreaker. However, I think bookmakers are overestimating the Nittany Lions’ motivation and the Happy Valley Crowd because Michigan is at least a touchdown better than Penn State.
J.J. McCarthy has been fantastic this season, throwing for 2100 yards with 18 touchdowns and just three picks. They also have Blake Corrum, who has averaged over five yards per carry this season. Michigan also has the best defense in the country, allowing just six points per game.
The Wolverines haven’t been tested but will pass this test on Saturday. In the one challenging game Penn State played against Ohio State, it was clear the Nittany Lions’ offense could not compete. Drew Allar has been fantastic statistically in 2023, but he was just 18 of 42 for 191 yards against the Buckeyes.
Allar should be better in this game, but unless Penn State’s defense forces many turnovers, the Nittany Lions won’t drive the field enough to cover 4.5 points.
#14 Tennessee @ #16 Missouri
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet on our picks at FanDuel.
PICK: Missouri +1.5
There is a lot of excitement around Missouri football, and this crowd will be as intense as ever on Saturday.
We just saw the Tigers go on the road and compete against Georgia. The Bulldogs haven’t lost in three years, and they have a tremendous defense that applies pressure and is brutal on third down. Missouri was 5 of 13 on third down and 1-1 on fourth down.
There were areas to improve, but they can take a lot of positives away from this game. Theo Wease Jr. and Luther Burden III combined for nearly 150 yards with a touchdown. Brady Cook turned it over twice, which cost Missouri, but Tennessee at home is less of a challenge.
Tennessee is the best in the SEC against the run, but they’re susceptible to the pass. It will take Cook not turning the ball over, but Missouri has explosive playmakers in the passing game. Tennessee nearly lost to Kentucky on the road and was defeated by Florida in the Swamp earlier in the year.
They did play hard against Alabama in Tuscaloosa, but the wheels quickly fell off. The matchup favors the Tigers if they don’t turn the ball over in this pick’em contest.
#10 Ole Miss @ #1 Georgia
PICK: Ole Miss +10.5
Betting on Lane Kiffin is always challenging because he takes his team out of games with his high-risk coaching style. It’s not surprising to see Kiffin go for it on fourth down on his 30-yard line in the first quarter. I do my best not to bet on Kiffin, but I like the spot for Ole Miss.
Kiffin said, “We’re playing with house money,” going on the road to face Georgia. The Bulldogs have answered the few challenges on their schedule but failed to put Missouri away last week. They struggled on the road against Auburn earlier in the year.
The Bulldogs are susceptible, and from an offensive standpoint, Ole Miss can hang with Georgia. They’re very similar to Missouri in this regard, and that game came down to the wire last week.
Both teams score around 40 points per game. Defensively, Georgia is much better, but Ole Miss is tough when the ball crosses the 50-yard line. If they can force field goals on defense, and Jaxson Dart plays one, and Jaxson Dart does what we’ve seen from him most weeks, the Rebels can compete.
This isn’t the same Georgia team we’ve seen the past two seasons, and they still don’t have Brock Bowers. We’re taking a chance because Kiffin is playing with house money.
