College Football Picks Week 11: Odds, Predictions, Schedule, Rankings for Top 25
The two premier matchups on the Week 11 college football schedule carry a similar theme.
The Penn State Nittany Lions and Ole Miss Rebels can't be trusted in games against top-10 opposition.
James Franklin and Lane Kiffin have had a wealth of success beating the lesser teams in the Big Ten and SEC, respectively, but they have struggled to take over their leagues with massive wins.
That was on display earlier in the season when Penn State faltered on the road against the Ohio State Buckeyes and Ole Miss failed to contend with the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Penn State at least has the benefit of hosting the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday. The Nittany Lions beat Michigan twice in the last three meetings between the Big Ten rivals at Beaver Stadium, but those victories came when the Wolverines were ranked outside of the top 10.
Michigan won all four games against Penn State when it was ranked in the top 10 during Franklin's reign in State College.
Kiffin faces a tougher coaching challenge on Saturday against the Georgia Bulldogs, who have brushed off all competitors in the SEC.
Georgia was not fazed by an explosive Missouri Tigers offense in Week 9, and in some ways, that could help the Bulldogs with their preparation for Ole Miss.
For the latest lines on these games, go to DraftKings.
Thursday, November 9
Virginia at No. 11 Louisville (-20.5) (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Saturday, November 11
No. 2 Michigan (-4.5) at No. 9 Penn State (Noon ET, Fox)
No. 8 Alabama (-11) at Kentucky (Noon ET, ESPN)
Texas Tech at No. 19 Kansas (-3.5) (Noon ET, FS1)
Tulsa at No. 20 Tulane (-23) (Noon ET, ESPN2)
Old Dominion at No. 25 Liberty (-13) (1 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
UConn at No. 21 James Madison (-26.5) (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
No. 23 Arizona (-10) at Colorado (2 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
Miami at No. 4 Florida State (-14.5) (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
No. 13 Utah at No. 5 Washington (-8.5) (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
No. 14 Tennessee at No. 16 Missouri (-1) (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
No. 15 Oklahoma State (-2.5) at UCF (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Stanford at No. 12 Oregon State (-21) (5:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 1 Georgia (-11) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
West Virginia at No. 17 Oklahoma (-12) (7 p.m. ET, Fox)
Michigan State at No. 3 Ohio State (-30.5) (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
No. 7 Texas (-10.5) at TCU (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Florida at No. 18 LSU (-13) (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
Duke at No. 24 North Carolina (-11) (8 p.m. ET, ACC Network)
USC at No. 6 Oregon (-14.5) (10:30 p.m. ET, Fox)
James Franklin is 2-20 outright against top 10 teams in his coaching career.
Franklin is 2-15 versus top 10 foes at Penn State and he is 1-10 against top-five opponents. That lone win came against the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2016.
Penn State's offense short-circuited in its first matchup with a top-five foe this season in Columbus, Ohio.
The Nittany Lions lacked any explosiveness in the passing game against a relentless Ohio State defense.
Michigan will put a similar amount of pressure on Drew Allar on Saturday, which is one of the many reasons why the Wolverines should be trusted to win and cover.
Jim Harbaugh's team has not allowed over 14 points in a single game this season. Only the Purdue Boilermakers and Minnesota Golden Gophers got over double digits.
Saturday poses the first true test for Michigan this season, but that can't be an excuse to bet against the Wolverines.
The J.J. McCarthy-led offense consistently put up 30 points all season and the defense is one of the best in the country.
Penn State is already a known quantity against a top-five team from its lackluster showing against Ohio State and there is no guarantee anything will improve against another elite defense.
Ole Miss is 1-5 against top-10 teams during Kiffin's time as head coach.
The lone win in that span came against the Kentucky Wildcats at home last season. With respect to Kentucky, it is not the same type of top-10 program as Georgia and Alabama typically are.
Kiffin is 0-3 outright against Alabama in his Ole Miss career. Saturday will mark the first time he faces Georgia with the Rebels, but the matchups with the Crimson Tide could tell us something about how the visitors handle the environment inside Sanford Stadium.
Ole Miss was thoroughly outplayed by Alabama's defense on September 23. It only put up 10 points in that defeat, but the excuse around the Ole Miss camp is that its offense was not at 100 percent.
On paper, Ole Miss has a better shot of upsetting Georgia because wide receiver Tre Harris and tight end Caden Prieskorn are healthy.
However, Georgia is well equipped to handle a pair of explosive pass-catchers, as it proved in its Week 10 win over Missouri.
UGA held Luther Burden III to three catches on 53 yards and limited the Mizzou passing attack to 212 yards.
The Bulldogs' recent experience with an explosive, pass-heavy offense should have them more prepared to deal with Ole Miss' approach, led by quarterback Jaxson Dart.
Georgia could easily reduce Ole Miss to the same fate it experienced in Tuscaloosa two months ago to win by two touchdowns at home.
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