Best College Football Prop Bets Week 9

Florida Graham Mertz Over 194.5 Passing Yards (-110) vs Georgia (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Florida gets their crack at the number one team in the nation, the Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia is a tremendous team, and they’re favored by two touchdowns in this game. 

Billy Napier’s team has been inconsistent this season. Their marquee win came against Tennessee at home, but nothing has been smooth since. Kentucky blew them off the field in Lexington and came from behind against South Carolina last week.

The common theme this season for Florida has been Graham Mertz throwing the ball. Despite having a solid run game at times, the Gators have leaned on Mertz’s arm in high-leverage situations. He will be in a high-pressure game for 60 minutes against Georgia, so we expect Flordia to throw. 

Mertz is coming off a game where he threw for 423 yards against South Carolina. The Gamecocks defense is nothing close to the Bulldogs, but Mertz could hit this prop just off volume alone. 

He has surpassed 194.5 passing yards in four straight games and has thrown the ball 84 times in the past two weeks. This Graham Mertz is different than the version we saw at Wisconsin. 

Florida has nothing to lose against the Bulldogs as a 14.5-point favorite, and we expect Mertz to play this way throughout the game. Additionally, if Georgia takes a big lead, Florida will quickly abandon the run game. 

The Bulldogs can score quickly, which gives us confidence the Gators will have to throw to match the pace. This is another reason to take the over on such a moderate passing yards line. 

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Blake Shapen Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-110) vs Iowa State (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Sportsbooks still haven’t caught up to Blake Shapen regarding his passing yards line. This makes sense as he has only started four games, but Shapen has one of the best arms in the Big 12 Conference. 

We took Shapen’s passing prop last week, which was set in the low 200s, against Cincinnati. He threw for 316 yards on 42 attempts with one touchdown. This included a long completion of 55 yards. 

Baylor is built on passing the football, so it’s unbelievable that Shapen’s line is still set at 246.5. Based on what he has done this season, Shapen should have one of the highest passing yard lines in the country every Saturday. 

Shapen has thrown for at least 290+ yards in every game. He has gone over 300 yards in three starts, with a high of 324 yards. Baylor is asking Shapen to throw the ball 30+ times per game; his average completion is in the mid-eight-yard mark. 

If he has an average day, he will surpass 246.5 passing yards against Iowa State. The Cyclones have been productive in the secondary, but they’re not the best team in the conference. If they take it to the Bears early, Shapen will have even more passing attempts. 

The best stat to look at for passing yards is passing attempts. Attempts equate to yards, and Shapen has gone well over 246.5 every week. There is no reason not to trust him on Saturday at home. 

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