Best College Football Prop Bets Week 3
Graham Mertez Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-110) vs. Tennessee (DraftKings)
Graham Mertz has been one of the bright spots for Florida through two games this season. He has performed under pressure and been very accurate with the football. The Gators have their biggest challenge of the season on Saturday night against Tennessee, but the one positive is that this game is in Gainesville.
The Gators were expected to be a running team heading into the season, but Mertz has given them a strong but unexpected downfield passing attack. He has thrown for 526 yards with two touchdowns through his first two games as a Gator.
His completion percentage has been the real reason to get excited. Mertz has completed 73.8% of his passes this season and isn’t panicking under pressure. The biggest question heading into the Tennesse game is if the Gators' offensive line can hold up against the Volunteers.
Tennessee leads the nation in sacks and tackles for loss. They have terrorized opposing quarterbacks, but Mertz’s number is still too low. We expect Florida to be in the game, and for this to occur, Mertz will have to throw the ball down the field.
The Gators should struggle to run the ball on the Tennessee front seven, and Florida must match Tennessee’s scoring pace. With Mertz's efficiency through the air, it’s an easy decision to take over on his passing total.
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Shedeur Sanders Over 341.5 Passing Yards (-110) vs. Colorado State (DraftKings)
The biggest surprise of college football season has been the success of the Colorado Buffaloes. Coach Prime’s team is the 18th-ranked program in the AP Poll, and we expect them to continue climbing.
The Buffaloes have consciously tried throwing the ball down the field. The team didn’t run the ball and quickly abandoned this portion of their game. Yet, the rushing matchup is better this week for the team, but we’re still going to take the over for Shedeuer Sanders’ passing yardage total.
Sanders’ total is listed at 341.5, which is massive, but taking the under on this number is dangerous. Sanders is in the Heisman mix, lighting up the stat sheet more than any other quarterback in the country. Colorado is throwing for 453 yards per game and rushing for just 56.
The team’s average is 100 yards over Sanders’ total, and Coach Prime is looking to make a statement in this rivalry game. Colorado State was defeated by Washington State 50-24 last week, and their performance in the secondary was terrible.
The Rams allowed 466 yards through the air, and Colorado is faster than the Cougars all over the field. Coach Prime is going to make a statement and the best way to do this is by running up the score through the air. Even though Sander's number is so high, we’re leaning on the over.
Will Rogers Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-110) vs. LSU (DraftKings)
Will Rogers's season at Mississippi State is off to a great start. He has thrown for 389 yards through two games with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. He is running the air raid offense perfectly, and he must on Saturday to give his team a chance against LSU.
The Tigers are going to score points, and this is clear as they’re favored by 9.5 points. However, we believe the Bulldogs can stay in this game if Rogers plays as he has in his first two matchups.
He hasn’t been forced to throw the ball down the field like he will be on Saturday. LSU has shown holes in their secondary that Rogers can attack. They allowed 494 yards of total offense to Florida State in the season opener, including 359 through the air.
If the Tigers go on a run in this game, we also like Rogers to go over the total. Mississippi State must throw if they’re playing from behind in this contest, which benefits the over.
