Best NBA prop bets Dec. 26: Bet on Simons to score big vs. Kings

Anfernee Simons returned for the Portland Trail Blazers earlier this month, and he's been a scoring machine in most games since.

The pregame narrative: Simons is particularly hot from beyond the arc right now, and his points prop looks ripe for an over. Also, Karl-Anthony Towns is a threat to snatch 10-plus rebounds on most nights, and his matchup on Tuesday indicates he can do it again.

NBA oddsas of 11:25 a.m. ET 12/26/2023.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Towns over 9.5 rebounds (-117)

Given that Towns' rebounding average (9.5/game) mirrors this line exactly, it stands to reason that a plus matchup would give cause for taking the over. And that's what he's working with tonight.

Towns will match up against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who allow the second-most rebounds per game to opponents (46.4). Their above-average pace is part of that figure, but they lack from an efficiency standpoint, too (47.3% rebounding rate, 29th in the NBA).

Although Towns' best rebounding days are seemingly behind him — thanks to the addition of Rudy Gobert two seasons ago — this is still a comfortable line for him most nights.

Towns, a centre-turned-power-forward, has secured 10-plus rebounds in 16 of 27 games (59.3%). That includes a 10-rebound performance against the Thunder last month.

Most of the time, I expect Towns to at least flirt with a double-digit rebound total. And in a matchup like this, he should cash on the over.

Keystat: Oklahoma City allows the fourth-most rebounds to opposing PFs, per Fantasy Pros.

Quick pick

Simons over 27.5 points (-109): Simons is making up for lost time, and the Trail Blazers should be grateful for his big-time scoring contributions.

After missing 18 of Portland's first 19 games, Simons has averaged 27.9 points since his return. He's hit this over in five of those nine recent games.

Over his past two games, Simons has made great use of his attempts beyond the arc. He's 14-for-27 in that span and will hopefully keep firing freely tonight.

Sacramento is a solid matchup for this prop, as the Kings allow the fourth-most points to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros.