Best NBA prop bets today: SuperDraft player prop picks for Warriors-Kings Game 6, including over/unders for Steph Curry and Domantas Sabonis

One of the most exciting series of the 2023 NBA Playoffs could end this evening when the sixth-seeded Warriors (-7.5) host the third-seeded Kings in a pivotal Game 6. Golden State leads 3-2 after collecting the first road win of the series on Wednesday, and the defending champions will look to seal the deal at Chase Center, where they have gone 33-8 since the start of the season. We already wrote our betting preview for this pivotal West-coast clash, and now we will detail our favorite over/unders on the SuperDraft prop market. 

The Kings have defied the odds all season, shaking off their 17-year playoff drought and finishing with the third-best record in a loaded Western Conference. They have gone 25-18 away from Golden 1 Center, and they're 14-8 as road underdogs. Overall, they're 20-15 against the spread as underdogs. Sacramento has truly embraced its identity as a young, confident, scrappy squad that never goes down without a punch. 

The Warriors are four-time heavyweight champions, and their hometown haymakers always seem to land the hardest in closeout games. Golden State's last three postseason closeouts have been by an average winning margin of 12.3 points. Dating back to 2016, Steph Curry's per-game scoring average in the last game of postseason series is 29.7 points. 

All eyes will be on Game 6 tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET (ESPN), and we can't wait to see how the drama unfolds. Let's get to our SuperDraft prop picks, highlighting our favorite over/unders for what should be an unforgettable evening of hoops. 

Best Warriors-Kings Game 6 SuperDraft prop bets

Confidence ratings are from * (least confident) to ***** (most confident)

Steph Curry OVER 31.5 points *****

Can you imagine building a prop parlay or prop string in Game 6 of a Golden State series and excluding Steph Curry? It's just not advisable. Curry has scored 30-plus points in four of the five games this series, and Boston fans remember all too well that he dropped 34 in the deciding game of the 2022 NBA Finals at TD Garden. The Kings have been unable to stop (or even contain) Curry all season. He averaged 33 points per game against Sacramento during the regular-season series. This is your free square — pass on it at your own risk. 

Kevon Looney OVER 13 rebounds ****

SuperDraft line-setters are no fools. They set Looney's rebounding line a full 1.5 boards above the majority of sportsbooks' prop listings. However, we're still taking the bait. With his great rim-reading instincts and 7-4 wingspan, Looney has looked like a modern-day Dennis Rodman or Ben Wallace, clearing almost everything near the defensive glass and even coming down with some offensive boards to create second-chance opportunities. Golden State's MO is to (a) get stops, (b) have Looney come down with the rebound, and (c) outlet to one of the other four players on the floor to initiate the fast break. The Warriors would not maintain their status as one of the fastest-paced offenses in the NBA with Looney running in transition. He had 22 boards in Game 6, 14 in Game 5, and 20 in Game 3. Here's betting he pulls down another 14-16 tonight. 

Domantas Sabonis OVER 19.5 points *

Okay, Domas, it's time to step up and put your team on your back. Fox has carried this squad all year, but a fractured finger on his shooting hand is obviously going to hamper his ability to score at will. Sabonis needs to channel his inner Arvydas and get big on the Dubs tonight. Looney is a good defender, but he's not good enough to stay with Sabonis down low if he reaches into his bag. If he stops being so passive and starts taking the ball strong to the hoop, the Kings have a shot to bring this series back to Golden 1 for Game 7. We saw Sabonis score 21 in Game 5, only the second time he cleared 15 points all series, and we're making the bold call that he'll be even more assertive around the hoop tonight. If not, he should be properly ripped by Kings Nation. 

Klay Thompson UNDER 30.5 points + rebounds + assists ***

Shooters shoot, and nobody can dispute that getting open, firing away, and playing solid D are about the only three tasks assigned to Thompson at this point in his career. The veteran Splash Bro has pulled down just two rebounds in each of the past two games, and he's exceeded three assists just once all series. With Looney playing such a massive part of the rebounding game and Domantas Sabonis also a beast of the boards himself, the opportunities are just not there for Thompson to rack up many non-scoring counting stats. Steve Kerr would much rather have his second-best shooter, well, catching-and-shooting than creating for others. Follow the trend and smash the UNDER here.

Draymond Green UNDER 7 rebounds ***

We were tempted to go UNDER seven assists here, as Dray has maxed out at seven assists in each of the past two games and finished with just five in Game 2, but the rebounding prop is much safer. Green pulled down just four rebounds in Games 2 and 5, and Looney has proven that he doesn't need assistance commanding the glass against Sac-town. Green is one of the many fast-break catalysts on this Warriors team, so he won't smash around down low battling for boards unless a long rebound heads his way or a weak-side brick lands in his lap. This play is much safer than most casual bettors may deem it.