Betting Baseball: NL MVP and CY Young Races

Shohei Ohtani secured the MVP in the American League before the All-Star Break. Despite amazing seasons from Kyle Tucker and Julio Rodriguez, not a soul is claiming Ohtani does not deserve the award. Proof lies in the fact that particular market is no longer available to bet, and some books have even already cashed those tickets for bettors.

Ohtani is truly a unicorn. With just a handful of weeks remaining in the MLB season, AL MVP and NL Rookie of the Year (Corbin Carroll) are the only Players’ Awards markets in baseball that are locked up.

Ronald Acuna, Jr. (-360) has had a special season atop the Atlanta Braves’ lineup, but he is no longer the slam dunk choice in the NL MVP market. The NL Cy Young Market has been wide open for most of the season. It continues to be there for a potential long shot to close the season strong and steal that award.

Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) and Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) dove into these markets on today’s episode of Bet the EDGE.

As mentioned, Acuna has put together impressive if not career-defining numbers this season. However, there is another All-Star churning out massive numbers in Southern California.

Croucher makes a solid case for Mookie Betts (+550) to be the MVP in the National League.

“People have just assumed that (Acuna) Jr. is going to win and haven’t really noticed that Mookie Betts now has the edge in WAR. Betts has a very narrow lead in OPS. He’s got it covered in home runs and RBIs. Every defensive stat prefers Betts and that’s why his WAR has gone past Acuna. Jr.’s argument now is basically he hits for better average, and he has the stolen bases - which the edge there is significant. I don’t think that that is probably going to be overvalued by voters. And then he has a team that has the better record, but the Dodgers are only four games back of Atlanta now.”

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Croucher’s argument that Betts is mispriced has already moved the market substantially. Since Sunday, Betts has moved from +1200 to +550.

The National League Cy Young Award has numerous qualified suitors, but none are enjoying elite seasons. The current favorites are Arizona’s Zac Gallen (+165), San Diego’s Blake Snell (+210), and Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (+400). Each flashes brilliance but has been unable to sustain it for more than a couple starts at a time.

That leaves the door open for a long shot to cash.

Enter Corbin Burnes (+3000) of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Dinsick is open to the possibility that Burnes could snatch the award from the current favorites.

“I spent Thursday evening with the most hardcore Dodgers’ fan friend I have. And so, I watched a lot of Corbin Burnes (that night). He was outrageous (7IP, 9Ks). There are a lot of players who are kind of hitting the late season wall right now and he is not one of those guys. So yeah, I think that at that price that’s going to be the bet, but I agree with your overall thesis here which is that the top of this market is incorrectly priced.”

Croucher thinks Strider should be the favorite.

“Strider is the one guy who I think it’s weird because he’s kind of coming from further back, but I think he is the guy who has the award in his glove so to speak, where if he just pitches well the rest of the way he is the guy that everyone wants to vote for. I think because he’s the most dominant. He’s the most flashy with the Ks. He plays for Atlanta, the best team in baseball. You will get some of that intangible bump that Acuna is getting at the moment. And I think people just want an excuse to vote for Strider. If his era is 3.57, they don’t have that excuse but if he can get that down into the 3.20s then all of a sudden, I think that he becomes the guy, and he certainly has the stuff to be able to go on. You know he’s probably got seven starts left, if he just pitches to like a 2.50 ERA the rest of the way I think that might be enough for him to win ultimately. But at +450 it’s not super appetizing…I think the best bet in the market at the moment is Corbin Burnes at 30/1.”

The Futures Market may seem like a roll of the dice but Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick time and again have proven that is anything but the truth. Its about removing emotion and analyzing the numbers (stats and odds).

Get an education. Tune in to Bet the EDGE right here or wherever you find your other favorite podcasts.

Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat.